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香港特别行政区








乌兰察布市(察哈尔右翼后旗、化德县、丰镇市、察哈尔右翼前旗、四子王旗、集宁区、卓资县、凉城县、察哈尔右翼中旗、商都县、兴和县)








楚雄彝族自治州(牟定县、大姚县、双柏县、武定县、永仁县、禄丰市、南华县、楚雄市、姚安县、元谋县)








庆阳市(环县、正宁县、镇原县、华池县、西峰区、庆城县、合水县、宁县)








淮北市(濉溪县、烈山区、相山区、杜集区)








金昌市(永昌县、金川区)








成都市(温江区、金堂县、双流区、青羊区、青白江区、新津区、崇州市、都江堰市、大邑县、简阳市、龙泉驿区、锦江区、武侯区、郫都区、成华区、邛崃市、蒲江县、金牛区、彭州市、新都区)








兰州市(七里河区、城关区、榆中县、皋兰县、永登县、红古区、西固区、安宁区)








开封市(龙亭区、兰考县、顺河回族区、杞县、通许县、尉氏县、祥符区、鼓楼区、禹王台区)








凉山彝族自治州(布拖县、普格县、盐源县、木里藏族自治县、甘洛县、会理市、金阳县、冕宁县、宁南县、喜德县、雷波县、西昌市、会东县、德昌县、美姑县、越西县、昭觉县)








忻州市(繁峙县、保德县、神池县、河曲县、代县、偏关县、定襄县、静乐县、宁武县、忻府区、五台县、原平市、岢岚县、五寨县)








承德市(承德县、兴隆县、隆化县、平泉市、丰宁满族自治县、滦平县、宽城满族自治县、双滦区、围场满族蒙古族自治县、鹰手营子矿区、双桥区)








红河哈尼族彝族自治州(建水县、绿春县、屏边苗族自治县、金平苗族瑶族傣族自治县、红河县、元阳县、石屏县、个旧市、开远市、蒙自市、泸西县、弥勒市、河口瑶族自治县)








江门市(新会区、江海区、恩平市、开平市、台山市、鹤山市、蓬江区)

  市场回顾与分析

  一级市场回顾

  上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为4350亿、2006亿和1406亿,净融资额为3800亿、1227亿和1406亿。金融债(不含政金债)共计发行规模302亿,净融资额-224亿。非金信用债共计发行规模4082亿,净融资额920亿。暂无可转债新券发行。

  二级市场回顾

  上周债市窄幅震荡,曲线整体走平。主要影响因素包括:资金面、经济金融数据、美国政策波动等。

  流动性跟踪

  上周央行净投放流动性,对冲MLF到期和税期,资金面表现均衡。最终R001和R007分别较前周上行3.8BP和上行1BP。

  政策与基本面

  3月经济金融数据表现超预期,但市场对二季度后经济走势仍有担忧。高频数据来看:高频生产指标分化中上游强下游弱,房地产、出口景气度下行,油价回升、金价上涨。

  海外市场

  美与多国贸易谈判开始,海外市场波动率有所回落。10年期美债收盘在4.34%,较前周下行14BP。

  权益市场

  上周上证指数周一至周四连阳,国家队托底意图明显,相比之下,创业板表现稍弱。具体看,上周万得全A上涨0.39%,上证50上涨1.45%,沪深300上涨0.59%,创业板指下跌0.64%。上周A股成交量大幅缩量,日均成交额1.11万亿,周度日均成交量大幅减少5023亿。截至2025年4月17日,全A融资余额18023.00亿,较4月10日减少85.99亿元。

  债市策略展望

  债市再度进入观察震荡期,等待海内外事件的进一步发酵。当前宏观面较为复杂,市场缺乏明确方向。二季度将持续跟踪两件重点事项,一是中美关税谈判的后续进展,随着双方关税上升至100%以上,关税进一步加码已无实际意义,市场更关心中美潜在的协商进程,中美双方已阶段性释放谈判善意;二是,国内政策潜在加码的力度和方向,4月政治局会议作为季初讨论经济的会议,将成为市场观察年中政策基调的重要窗口,相比于往年的货币先行财政后至,本次财政可能更为积极,而货币的宽松更多是配合和被动的。在市场等待期间,市场偏好趋于摇摆,债市或维持震荡运行。考虑到二季度资金松紧情况一般好于一季度,对于负债端稳定的机构可关注5Y及以上长久期信用债的配置机会,当前长久期信用利差仍有较高压缩空间,信用债行情有望从中短久期轮动到长久期。转债方面,短期消息面频繁出现,给市场带来扰动。在进入到基本面定价阶段之前,市场阶段性的定价可能集中在关税博弈的拉扯摇摆、国内货币和内需政策的期待上,关注政策演绎。

  风险提示:本材料的信息均来源于已公开的资料,对信息的准确性、完整性或可靠性不作任何保证。本材料中的观点、分析仅代表公司研究团队观点,在任何情况下本文中的信息或表达的意见并不构成实际投资结果,也不构成任何对投资人的投资建议和担保。任何媒体、网站、个人未经本公司授权不得转载。

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