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  出品:新浪财经上市公司研究院

  作者:新消费主张/木予

  和府捞面没等来的“中式面馆第一股”,要被遇见小面捷足先登了?

  4月15日,广州遇见小面餐饮股份有限公司(下文简称:遇见小面)正式向港交所递交招股说明书,拟冲击主板上市,由招银国际担任独家保荐人。

  据招股书显示,2022-2024年,遇见小面总营收从4.18亿元提升至11.54亿元,年复合增长率高达66.2%;经调整净利润分别录得-3497.00万元、4697.80万元、6388.80万元,顺利扭亏为盈。截至最后实际可行日期,公司在中国内地22个城市共有374家餐厅、在香港特别行政区共有6家餐厅,累计会员总数约1880万名,其中储值会员支付率约36.5%、复购率约44.5%。

  然而,看似漂亮的数据难掩流量焦虑,经营效率恶化、规模增长乏力、现金流吃紧,还是暴露了其当下的尴尬处境。2025开年至今,港股消费板块受利好政策刺激整体回暖,中证香港300消费指数累计上涨8.06%。但餐饮股却普遍低迷,海伦司、呷哺呷哺、奈雪的茶同期股价跌超30个百分点,肯德基、必胜客的母公司百胜中国在短短4个月内市值蒸发逾170亿港元。

  资本市场“用脚投票”,一定程度上反映了对连锁餐饮企业扩张逻辑的担忧和悲观预期,遇见小面又该如何说服投资者为不再诱人的故事买单?

  七年八轮融资估值激增超220倍九毛九碧桂园百福控股接连下注

  “每个品类都值得重新再做一遍”被新消费主义奉为圭臬,资金的大量涌入催生了新式茶饮、本土咖啡、零食集合店等成功案例,中式面馆也一度备受追捧。

  艾媒咨询数据显示,2021年中式面馆行业融资事件数量仅次于茶饮和咖啡行业,全年融资额超13亿元。五爷拌面、张拉拉、陈香贵一年内皆完成2-3轮融资,和府捞面投后估值直逼70亿元。但好景不长,由于疫情反复冲击和市场泡沫出清,2022年中式面馆资本热度骤减,同比降幅高达74%,昔日风光无限的网红品牌只能勉强维持运营。基于公开数据不完全统计,五爷拌面15个月内裁撤了近600家门店,张拉拉在上海“大本营”的闭店率达44.6%。

  遇见小面的发展同样随着新消费浪潮起起伏伏。据招股书披露,公司自成立起先后获得8轮股权融资,总金额接近2亿元。2014年9月,天使轮的参投方顾东生以200万元认购新增注册资本,交易完成后持股比例约为15.0%,以此推算遇见小面的初始估值为1333.33万元。

  而2021年6月,公司完成最后一笔B+轮融资之际,碧桂园创投旗下的基金汇碧二号分别以4400万元认购新增注册资本、6000万元承接早期投资方注册资本,交易完成后持股比例约为5.08%,代价基准为该轮投前估值20亿元。结合遇见小面彼时向媒体透露的官方信息来看,本轮投后估值已增长至30亿元,与初始估值相比激增225.1%。

(来源:公司招股书)

  细究遇见小面的投资方矩阵,九毛九西北菜、太二酸菜鱼的母公司九毛九集团连续参与了其Pre-A轮、A轮+融资,约持有股份6.50%;房地产公司碧桂园借CVC碧桂园创投的汇碧一号、汇碧二号入股,通过B轮和B+轮共向公司投资1.34亿元,持股比例约为9.05%;百福控股是遇见小面的最大外部机构投资方,A轮、A+轮、B轮的背后都有其身影,股权占比达17.16%。公开信息显示,百福控股是由联想系PE弘毅投资控股的餐饮平台企业,主要从事餐饮品牌投资收购及运营管理。如果包括喜家德虾仁水饺创始人高德福持有的3.01%股份在内,遇见小面的股东中,产业资本合计占比达35.7%,财务投资方仅占约3.3%。

  不过,投资方背景高度集中也暗藏风险。2024年,餐饮类公司大多业绩不振。百福控股营收同比下降24.4%,净亏损扩大59.5%,连续7年累亏14.64亿元,股价已跌破1港元;九毛九集团营收微增1.3%,净利润锐减87.7%,市值较最高点暴跌93.3%。房地产行业仍处于修复期,碧桂园扣非后归母净亏损约328.35亿元,一年内需要偿还的债务达1374.13亿元。

  如此种种,都导致投资方的退出需求愈发紧迫,遇见小面的上市压力陡增。据招股书披露,公司曾于2021年3月签订赎回权协议约定,若第七个周年日或之前未能完成上市,遇见小面需要按照原发行价加7%年回报率加未派付股息总和,或原发行价的150%加未派付股息总和回购。

  以价换量单店日均销售额缩水开放加盟多年餐厅不足百家

  高歌猛进的融资后,是猝不及防的消费降级,一线城市寒意尤为明显。

  国家统计局数据显示,2023年一线城市与全国社会消费品零售额增速的差异在1-3个百分点,2024年差异扩大至3-5个百分点。2025年第一季度,全国社零同比增长4.6%,北京和上海反而各下降3.3%、1.1%。而一线及新一线城市正是遇见小面的“主战场”。据招股书披露,截至2024年12月31日,公司在一线及新一线城市共有288家餐厅,约占同期总餐厅数量的八成。

  为了留住消费者,遇见小面不得不降低客单价。2022-2024年,公司整体订单平均消费额从36.1元减少至32.0元,一线及新一线城市订单平均消费额同比分别下滑5.3%、6.5%,呈扩大趋势。但降价带来的边际效应却在递减,一线及新一线城市的订单总数同比增幅从106.5%“腰斩”至47.1%,翻座率从2023年最高点每天4.0次不增反降至3.8次,同店销售额下降5.1%。

  更令人担忧的是,遇见小面的单店日均销售额全线缩水。2024年,其一线及新一线城市单店日均销售额约为1.24万元,同比减少12.1%;二线及以下城市单店日均销售额约为1.16万元,同比减少8.1%,双双回落至2022年水平。即使在香港特别行政区单店日均销售额高达5.12万元的情况下,公司整体表现仍不甚理想,单店日均销售额录得1.24万元,较2023年下降超10%。

  与此同时,遇见小面的扩张之路也并不顺畅。早在2019年,公司便向下沉市场开放加盟,但截至2023年末只开出了69家特许经营餐厅,一半位于二线及以下城市。2024年3月,遇见小面发布公告称,将面向国内新一线城市和部分海外城市,以及高校、交通枢纽等渠道,拓展“区域特许经营”和“渠道特许经营”模式。

  该公告的实际效果依旧寥寥。2024年,公司特许经营餐厅仅新增19家,同比下降20.8%,另有7家转为直营或直接关闭。苦心经营近五年,遇见小面的加盟餐厅共计81家,平均每月净新增1-2家。特许经营管理收入对总营收的贡献比例约13.2%,而2022年和2023年该比例分别为19.3%、16.0%。

  招股书虽未具体透露加盟餐厅的成本构成和经营效率,但基于直营餐厅相关信息,或能管窥遇见小面对加盟商吸引力不高的关键原因。

  一方面,资金门槛偏高。公司在内地新开一家直营餐厅的前期开支预计在70-90万元之间,远高于其他中式快餐连锁品牌的均值20-30万元。另一方面,单店收入较低。报告期内,直营餐厅平均单店年收入分别为303.37万元、367.18万元、358.78万元,约为同期特许经营餐厅单店货品及设备销售平均收入的2.5倍。于往绩记录期间,直营餐厅通常在2个月内实现首次收支平衡,平均投资回收期则需15.2个月。不难预想,单店模型更脆弱的加盟餐厅,收回投资成本的时间也相应更长。

  尽管如此,遇见小面还是对未来开城拓店保持乐观态度。2025-2027年,公司计划在内地、香港及海外新增120-150家、150-180家及170-200家直营及特许经营餐厅。这意味着,三年内新增餐厅数量要比过去10年运营餐厅总和还要多15%-40%,平均每个月至少要有12-14家新餐厅落地,预估直营店投资成本合计高达3.88亿元。

  账面资金只剩2791万一边激进裁员一边突击分红

  餐饮行业自带高流水、低毛利特征,重资产的直营模式更是直接挤压本不富裕的利润空间。

  据招股书显示,2022-2024年,遇见小面原材料及耗材、员工和使用权折旧及其他租金相关成本占总营收的比例分别为87.1%、73.7%、73.7%。其中,原材料成本约占35%-40%,员工成本约占20%-25%,租金成本约占15%-20%。若叠加设备折旧、水电费用和其他经营费用,直营餐厅运营成本占总营收近乎达九成。

  而原材料、租金及经营成本相对刚性,公司唯有从员工成本下手。截至2024年12月31日,遇见小面共有1443名雇员,同比显著减少44.9%,比2022年还要少近700人;委聘外包员工增长至3678名,约占员工总数71.8%。裁员的“大刀”或许仍在内部挥舞。就在公司递表后第三天,其公关总监在社交媒体平台发文称遭遇“暴力裁员”,尚未过试用期便接到了一纸解雇通知书,工作期间承受了巨大精神压力,这无疑为遇见小面的上市之路再添阴霾。

  此外,遇见小面直营餐厅的租赁物业还产生了高额的租赁负债。报告期内,公司的租赁负债总额由4.39亿元增长至7.35亿元,约65%的债务偿还期在一年后但五年内。截至2025年2月28日,遇见小面一年内到期的租赁负债已攀升至2.01亿元,约占流动负债47.3%。相较之下,公司流动资产仅为1.89亿元,流动比率约为0.4,比2024年末下降12.4%,与安全警戒值1差距甚远。

  租赁负债同步带来了利息“烦恼”。2022-2024年,遇见小面为租赁负债分别支付利息1660.00万元、1907.40万元、2708.30万元,约占各期财务成本97.9%、98.7%、97.5%。期间公司支付租赁负债的本金和利息累计达4.38亿元,是融资活动现金流长期为负值的主要原因。截至2025年2月28日,遇见小面账面留存的现金及现金等价物只剩2791.30万元,较2024年末减少33.8%。

  值得玩味的是,流动性捉襟见肘,遇见小面仍慷慨现金分红。招股书披露,刚刚盈利的2023年,公司向权益股东宣派股息1950万元,约占当期净利润41.5%。2025年3月冲刺IPO前,公司再次宣派2024年度股息1470万元,约占2024年净利润23%。根据股权结构分析,两次分红共约1822.18万元流向创始人宋奇和苏旭翔。

  2025年4月24日,上海久诚律师事务所许峰律师代理的遥望科技(维权)(002291)投资者索赔案再次次向广州市中级人民法院提交一次立案,此前已多次提交立案,目前正在等待法院的下一步安排,律师团队还在继续推进后续案件的立案工作,还在继续接受其他投资者的索赔委托。(许峰律师专栏)

  2023年12月12日,遥望科技(002291)发布关于公司及相关人员收到警示函的公告,称于近日收到广东证监局出具的《关于对佛山遥望科技股份有限公司、于洪涛、谢如栋、李刚、何建锋、马超采取出具警示函措施的决定》,经查,遥望科技存在以下违规问题:

  1、2021年至2022年期间公司存货账面值与实际不符。

  2、2019年至2020年期间部分收入确认不恰当。

  3、虚增收入、利润和应收账款回款。

  4、对外财务资助未及时披露。

  5、未及时披露公司及子公司担保情况。

  许峰律师认为,综合以上违法事实,根据证券法规定,在2020年4月23日到2023年12月12日之间买入遥望科技股票,并且在2023年12月12日后卖出或继续持有股票的投资者,目前还可发起索赔。(遥望科技维权入口)

  除了遥望科技投资者索赔案提交立案,4月22日,许峰律师代理的东方集团(600811)投资者索赔案也再提交法院立案。此前许峰律师代理的部分东方集团投资者索赔案件已获得法院立案,目前正在等待法院的下一步安排,律师团队同步也还在继续接受后续投资者的索赔委托。

  2025年3月16日晚,东方集团公告收到证监会《行政处罚事先告知书》,经查明,2020年至2023年,东方集团出于维持农产品贸易市场占有率、满足融资需求以及业绩考核等目的,通过人为增加业务环节或虚构业务链条等方式,长期开展农产品融资性贸易和空转循环贸易。上述虚假销售业务导致东方集团2020年至2023年年度报告分别虚增营业收入3,896,546,638.75元、4,865,498,090.36元、6,542,641,212.14元、824,804,130.07元,占各期对外披露营业收入(更正前,下同)的25.20%、32.05%、50.44%、13.56%,分别虚增营业成本3,875,480,343.50元、4,844,256,749.59元、6,530,267,411.95元、823,740,728.14元,占各期对外披露营业成本的23.74%、29.57%、45.43%、11.45%。东方集团2020至2023年年度报告存在虚假记载。

  上海久诚律师事务所主任许峰律师认为,综合以上违法事实,根据证券法规定,在2021年4月30到2024年6月22日之间买入东方集团股票,并在2024年6月22日之后卖出或持有股票的投资者,目前还可发起索赔。(东方集团维权入口)

  (本文由上海久诚律师事务所主任许峰律师供稿,不代表新浪财经立场。许峰律师,2008年起律师执业,执业服务范围涉及虚假陈述、内幕交易、操纵市场等证券欺诈领域索赔代理。十几年来已代理近两百只股票的投资者胜诉或调解获赔,同期还在代理诉讼时效内近三百只股票的索赔案件,部分也已有胜诉以及调解获赔先例。执业证号:13101200810965495)

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