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《深不可测》双a,唤醒你对真实的渴望与思考

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每经编辑黄胜    

新华社消息,美国总统特朗普17日抨击美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“玩弄政治”,称可立即让鲍威尔走人。鲍威尔此前曾表示,依据美国法律,特朗普无权解职自己。

特朗普17日在社交媒体平台“真实社交”上说,鲍威尔早该像欧洲中央银行那样降息了,他总是“又迟又错”,“越早走人越好”。在白宫接受媒体提问时,特朗普说:“如果我想让他走人,相信我,他很快就得走,我对他不满意。”此前一天,鲍威尔表示美联储不会屈从政治压力,面对特朗普政府近期关税政策带来的复杂经济局面,美联储将重点考虑对抗通货膨胀。

鲍威尔2017年被特朗普提名为美联储主席,经国会参议院表决批准后上任,经总统拜登2022年提名后获得连任,任期至2026年5月结束。他去年11月表示,不会主动辞职。

特朗普在第一个任期内就曾频繁批评鲍威尔,经常敦促美联储降息,也曾威胁要让鲍威尔走人。特朗普再次当选总统后,他与鲍威尔的矛盾再次让外界关注。鲍威尔曾表示,依据美国法律,特朗普无权解职自己。

特朗普为什么要求美联储降息?

在第一任期中,特朗普就频繁公开批评美联储及鲍威尔,经常敦促美联储降息。开启第二任期以来,特朗普在推进其关税政策的同时,又多次对鲍威尔施压,要求其降息。

《财富》杂志网站17日报道说,特朗普希望降低利率,以“抵消”他自己的关税政策所带来的通胀。美联社则认为,特朗普的关税政策令美国经济衰退风险加剧,而特朗普似乎希望把责任推到鲍威尔身上。

彭博社记者怀特洛表示,不管是不是总统,特朗普都一向对利率有自己的想法,经常与美联储主席的想法相悖。特朗普的想法似乎是,“我要制定经济政策,美联储应该配合我”。

每日经济新闻综合新华社、央视新闻

封面图片来源:每日经济新闻

  根据美国全国广播公司财经频道最新的全美经济调查,由于公众对特朗普在关税、通货膨胀和政府支出方面的处理方式普遍不满,他在经济方面的支持率降至其总统任期内的最低水平。

  调查发现,特朗普连任时带来的经济乐观情绪已经消失,现在更多的美国人认为经济状况将比2023年以来的任何时候都更糟,而且对股票市场的态度也急剧转向悲观。

  这项对全国1000名美国人的调查显示,44%的人认可特朗普的总统工作表现,51%的人不认可,这一结果比美国全国广播公司财经频道2020年特朗普卸任时的最终调查结果略好。然而,在经济方面,调查显示特朗普的支持率为43%,反对率为55%,这是他担任总统以来在该频道的任何一次民意调查中首次在经济问题上出现净负面评价。

  特朗普的共和党基础选民仍然坚定地支持他,但民主党在经济方面的净支持率为-90,比特朗普第一任期时的平均水平低30个百分点,独立选民的负面评价也增加了23个百分点。蓝领工人是特朗普赢得大选的关键因素,他们对特朗普的经济政策仍持积极态度,但与特朗普第一任期的平均水平相比,他们的反对率上升了14个百分点。

  “唐纳德・特朗普连任的明确目标是改善经济,但到目前为止,人们对现状并不满意,”该调查的民主党民意调查机构哈特协会的合伙人杰伊・坎贝尔说。

  这项民意调查于4月9日至13日进行,误差幅度为±3.1%。

  结果显示,到目前为止,特朗普只能说服他的基础选民相信他的经济政策从长期来看对国家有益:49%的公众认为未来一年经济将恶化,这是自2023年以来最悲观的总体结果。这一数字包括76%认为经济会改善的共和党人。但83%的民主党人和54%的独立选民认为经济会恶化。在那些认为总统的政策会产生积极影响的人中,27%的人表示这需要一年或更长时间。然而,40%对总统政策持负面看法的人表示,这些政策正在损害经济。

  “在人们对未来走势的看法上,我们正处于一个动荡的变革漩涡中,”该调查的共和党民意调查机构公共舆论策略公司的执行合伙人米卡・罗伯茨说。“数据……比以往任何时候都更表明,是负面的党派反应推动并维持了人们对未来的不满和担忧。”

  虽然党派之争是总统支持率下降的最重要因素,但他在关税和通货膨胀等关键领域失去了一些共和党人的支持,在独立选民中的支持率也明显下降。

  关税似乎是公众普遍不满的一个重要原因。美国民众以49比35的比例反对全面关税,大多数人认为关税对美国工人、通货膨胀和整体经济都不利。民主党以83个百分点的差距反对关税,独立选民反对的差距为26个百分点。共和党人对关税的支持率为59个百分点,比特朗普79%的净支持率低20个百分点。

  大多数美国人认为加拿大、墨西哥、欧盟和日本对美国来说更多的是经济机遇,而不是经济威胁。事实上,与美国全国广播公司财经频道在特朗普第一任期内提出这个问题时相比,这些国家和地区现在都更受青睐。数据表明,包括大多数共和党人在内的公众并不认同总统对这些贸易伙伴表达的反感。

  总统在处理通货膨胀问题上的支持率最低,公众以37%对60%的比例表示不认可,其中民主党人和独立选民的净负面评价很高。但在共和党人中,对总统在该问题上的净支持率为58%,是所有关于总统的问题中最低的。57%的公众认为美国很快就会陷入或目前已经处于经济衰退,这一比例高于2024年3月的40%。其中12%的人认为经济衰退已经开始。

  公众还以45%对51%的比例不认可总统对联邦政府支出的处理,以42%对53%的比例不认可其外交政策。

  特朗普在移民问题上的支持率最高,他对南部边境的处理得到了53%对41%的支持率,驱逐非法移民的政策得到了52%对45%的支持率。总统在驱逐非法移民问题上获得了独立选民的微弱多数支持,在南部边境问题上获得了22%民主党人的支持。虽然支持率仍然不高,但这是特朗普在民主党人中表现最好的一个问题。

  与此同时,美国人对股票市场的看法比两年来更加负面。约53%的人表示现在不是投资的好时机,只有38%的人认为现在是好时机。这些数字与总统当选时股票市场的乐观情绪形成了鲜明对比。事实上,12月的调查显示出该调查17年历史上对股票市场乐观情绪的最大转变,而4月的调查则是向悲观情绪的最大转变。

  目前来看,总统支持率的问题似乎并没有转化为民主党明显的潜在优势。在被问及对国会的偏好时,48%的公众支持民主党控制国会,46%的人支持共和党控制国会,与美国全国广播公司财经频道2022年3月的调查结果相比几乎没有变化。

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