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  ●本报记者李梦扬

  近日,上海医药公告,上海医药与上海上实资本管理有限公司等13方合伙人今年3月签订《上海生物医药并购私募基金合伙企业(有限合伙)有限合伙协议》。公司近日收到基金管理人上海上实资本管理有限公司的通知,该并购基金已于近期在中国证券投资基金业协会完成备案手续。据了解,该并购基金的成立,是对去年年末发布的《上海市支持上市公司并购重组行动方案(2025—2027年)》的积极响应。

  记者梳理发现,近期上海、北京、广州、深圳等地纷纷加快设立并购基金的步伐。业内人士表示,在政府、行业、企业多方协同下,并购市场活跃度提升,有助于形成良好的资本市场生态。借助并购基金,企业可以加速将资源向战略性新兴产业和未来产业配置。同时,在成熟行业中,龙头企业通过并购整合市场份额,能够提升行业集中度,优化竞争格局。

  上海加快组建国资并购基金矩阵

  根据上海医药此前公告,公司拟作为有限合伙人之一参与设立上海生物医药并购私募基金合伙企业(有限合伙),拟出资金额为10亿元。上海医药表示,标的基金将成为促进产业链集聚整合、推动产业转型升级、拓宽资本退出通道的重要工具,可为上海加快打造全球生物医药研发经济和产业化高地提供重要支撑。

  2024年12月,《上海市支持上市公司并购重组行动方案(2025—2027年)》发布。《行动方案》提出,力争到2027年,落地一批重点行业代表性并购案例,在集成电路、生物医药、新材料等重点产业领域培育10家左右具有国际竞争力的上市公司,形成3000亿元并购交易规模,激活总资产超2万亿元。用好100亿元集成电路设计产业并购基金,设立100亿元生物医药产业并购基金。

  在今年3月25日举行的2025上海全球投资促进大会上,上海市国资委正式发布国资并购基金矩阵,总规模达到500亿元以上。上海市国资委副主任陈东日前在新闻发布会上表示,今年,上海市将发展并购基金列入了重点任务,上海国资国企紧抓市场战略机遇期,加快组建国资并购基金矩阵,与社会资本开放合作,加大产业并购力度,进一步提升新质生产力能级。

  设立并购基金渐成趋势

  除上海外,北京、广州、深圳等地近期宣布新设并购基金。记者4月15日从“推动首都高质量发展”系列主题新闻发布会上获悉,北京将进一步营造国际一流的创新创业生态,构建500亿元规模医药健康产业基金,在设立200亿元医药健康直投基金的基础上,推动新设100亿元规模医药并购基金。

  4月8日,《广州市支持上市公司并购重组实现高质量发展的若干措施(2025-2027年)》正式印发出台,其中提到,拓宽并购重组的融资渠道,支持银行等金融机构创新组合融资工具,做大做强并购类基金。此外,广州发挥并购类基金的作用,推动广州金控集团设立广州上市公司高质量发展基金,总规模100亿元,首期10亿元,为上市公司及大型企业集团开展并购重组提供基金支持和专业赋能,基金现已签约落地首只子基金(规模5亿元)。

  今年4月,深圳市龙岗区与中银资产、深圳市海洋投资管理有限公司签署并购基金合作协议,推出“1个区级半盲池基金+N个专项CVC基金”双轮驱动模式,设立深圳市首个20亿元区级政府引导并购基金。

  “政策红利与资本协同构成此轮产业并购基金热度升温的核心动能,战略性新兴产业是并购基金的主战场。”中国首席经济学家论坛理事陈雳告诉记者。

  “产业并购基金有助于加速产业资源优化配置,促进技术创新与产业升级,提升资本市场的资源配置效率。”四川农业大学经济学院特聘副教授谭晶桦在接受记者采访时表示,并购基金通过市场化手段整合分散资源,能推动行业向高效化、规模化发展,提升整体竞争力。同时,还可以减少行业内无效竞争,提高资源利用效率。同时,地方政府主导的并购基金已成为产业招商的重要抓手,通过基金注资带动产业集群式发展,有助于形成“以投带产”的良性循环。

  美国一位知名经济学家认为,由于特朗普政府的贸易战,现在更有可能出现经济衰退,美国可能遭受几十年来最大的“滞胀”冲击。

  “我们可能会陷入衰退,也可能不会,但无论如何,我们都会陷入通胀,”曾在美联储和英国央行任职的亚当·波森(AdamPosen)本周在一次演讲中表示。

  波森现任彼得森国际经济研究所所长,他认为经济衰退的可能性为65%。

  他说,即使特朗普与多个国家达成协议,关税措施仍可能维持。这些措施将推高物价,加剧通胀,减缓经济增长,这将导致一段时间的滞涨。

  滞涨是指经济遭受高通胀和经济疲软甚至负增长。美国上一次遭遇滞胀是在上世纪70年代末和80年代初,当时经济剧烈动荡。

  波森说,即使共和党人进一步减税和削减监管,家庭和企业也可能不会增加支出和投资,因为特朗普政府造成了长期的不确定性。

  波森指出,自2020年退出欧盟以来,英国经济一直不太稳定,因为最大的贸易伙伴分手在英国产生了所有不确定性。

  波森说,特朗普推行的“截然不同”的经济政策,包括不断对其他国家使用威胁,切断了与美国所有主要盟友之间几十年的经济关系,从而造成了更多的不确定性。

  其结果是,各国将更多地联合起来保护自己免受美国行动的伤害,而不是与美国结盟。

  波森说,贸易战和特朗普的策略造成的所有破坏将导致关键商品和服务的短缺,从而推高价格和通胀。

  减轻关税损害的努力可能会导致特朗普政府花更多的钱,补贴受到伤害最大的美国企业。波森说,这也可能加剧通胀。

  与此同时,受益于关税的其他美国企业将有更大的权力向客户提高价格,因为它们面临的外国竞争对手的竞争将减少。

  波森称,考虑到通胀率仍在高位,美联储降息幅度已经过大。一旦价格再次开始上涨,美联储的政策可能会落后于曲线。

  其结果是,美联储可能被迫迅速大幅提高利率,从而加大美国经济的压力。

  波森说,如果这一切都成为现实,将需要几年或更长的时间来修复损害。

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