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  来源:华尔街见闻

  摩根大通指出,今年以来美股抛售潮主要由对冲基金大规模减持驱动,而非外资撤资,同时国内散户仍在持续买入美股。历史数据表明,即使外资净流出,只要国内投资者(尤其是散户)继续买入,美股就不会因此承压。

  摩根大通的研究发现,美股本轮抛售很大程度上是由对冲基金(尤其是股票相关对冲基金)大规模降低风险敞口驱动的。相反,几乎没有证据表明外国投资者大规模抛售美股,而且美国国内散户投资者继续买入股票。

  该机构分析师NikolaosPanigirtzoglou在最新报告中指出,外资对美股的净流出本身并不意味着美股会出现负面回报或相对非美股票表现不佳,特别是当国内投资者,尤其是散户继续买入时。同时,美股市场接下来的走势很大程度上将取决于美国是否真正进入经济衰退。

  真正压垮美股的是对冲基金

  摩根大通在最新研报中指出一个问题——自2月中旬以来美股的调整以及相对全球其他市场的表现不佳,引发了市场对“谁在抛售美股”以及“是否有外资正在撤资”的疑问。报告援引的数据显示,目前几乎没有证据表明外资大规模抛售美股或美债。

  根据美国财政部国际资本流动数据,2月份外资购买了约240亿美元的美国股票,远超1月份130亿美元的流出量,同时外资还购买了约1200亿美元的美债。日本数据也显示,在经历了2月份50亿美元的小幅净卖出后,3月份和4月上旬日本投资者分别买入了130亿和140亿美元的外国股票。

  “我们相信,今年以来美股的大部分抛售是由以股票为重点的对冲基金驱动的,包括量化和自主型股票多空基金,”摩根大通在报告中指出,而非外资砸盘。

  摩根大通估计,这些投资者今年以来已抛售约7500亿美元的股票。另一个关键驱动因素是追随动量的对冲基金,如CTA,它们正在清算2月中旬持有的多头头寸,转向4月初的空头,估计销售额约为4500亿美元。

  报告指出:

  根据过去十年左右的数据,外资从美股的平均流出约为未偿股票的0.3%或美国GDP的0.7%,即约2000亿至3000亿美元。

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