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  转自:金十数据

  一段时间以来,德意志银行全球外汇研究主管乔治・萨拉韦洛斯(GeorgeSaravelos)一直在就美元问题敲响警钟,而现在他将这种担忧提升到了一个新的高度。

  3月初,就在一些交易员为美国加征关税可能带来的短期通胀冲击做准备之时,这位德意志银行的策略师以美元与股票之间的相关性下降为由,警告美元可能会失去其作为避险货币的声誉。然后,三周前,萨拉韦洛斯又指出了美元面临信心危机的风险。

  现在,他和策略师同事蒂姆・贝克(TimBaker)做出了一个更长期的预测,归根结底是美国的声誉已经受到损害,而这种损害可能很难迅速修复。

  在周四发布的一份报告中,萨拉韦洛斯和贝克列出了美元自今年年初以来面临的一长串障碍,其中包括美国一个世纪以来最大的贸易政策转变,以及自第二次世界大战以来对美国地缘政治领导力最重大的重新评估。

  他们写道:“我们对所有这些因素的看法是,现在已经具备了美元开始大幅下跌趋势的先决条件。”

  目前,投资者似乎从关税引发的波动中得到了喘息机会,并将希望寄托在所谓的“特朗普看跌期权”上,即特朗普能够继续软化其贸易政策立场,以支撑金融市场。周四,美国三大主要股指连续第三个交易日收涨,与此同时,由于对美国国债的广泛需求,美国政府债券价格上涨。

  而美元兑其他主要货币继续走弱。衡量美元兑六种主要货币汇率的洲际交易所(ICE)美元指数周四下跌0.6%,至99.27,创下三年来的新低,今年以来累计下跌近8%。根据美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特(ScottBessent)两天前给出的时间线,美元面临的部分问题可能在于,美中之间达成任何全面的贸易协议都可能需要两到三年的时间。

  德意志银行的报告称:“我们的预测是,美元‘长期走高’的时代将会结束,在本十年余下的时间里,欧元兑美元汇率将升值,更接近1.30的购买力平价汇率水平。”自2014年以来,欧元兑美元汇率就没有达到过这一水平。

  在看跌美元的观点背后,该行策略师们的部分想法是,世界其他国家为美国不断扩大的双赤字提供资金的意愿降低了。萨拉韦洛斯和贝克写道:“在一个极度不确定且政策规范迅速变化的世界里,市场出现混乱和规则被打破的风险仍然很高。”

  编辑:马萌伟

转自:财联社

财联社4月25日讯(编辑马兰)美股公司在最近披露的财报中传达出一个共同的讯号:美国总统特朗普的关税政策已让全美不知所措。

据统计,目前为止公布财报的全球上市公司中有近30家撤回或者下调了全年预测,其中以美国航空业最为明显,但其他行业也出现了类似的情况,折射出商业信心的疲弱。

宝洁首席财务官AndreSchulten表示,公司必须动用所有可能的手段来减轻关税影响。该公司此前计划提高全线产品的价格,以抵消关税带来的额外成本。

另一家消费巨头百事可乐也发出了警告。百事可乐的首席财务官JamieCaulfield指出,与三个月前相比,公司对于消费者的需求已经没有那么乐观。

海内外交困

4月初,特朗普宣布对全球多个国家征收高额关税,动摇了全球企业和消费者的信心,并引发了对美国资产的迅速抛售。然而,随后特朗普一边暂缓大部分国家关税,一边又威胁对半导体、医药和汽车行业征收更多关税。

政府官员指出,与多个国家正在进行的贸易谈判是特朗普政策取得成功的一个衡量标准,但许多公司表示,持续的反复谈判让他们不确定如何规划未来几个季度的业务经营。

宝洁的Shulten强调,除非宝洁确定了大环境,否则公司不想进行短期的采购变更。宝洁现在将等待形势确定下来,而这通常需要数月甚至数年的时间,而撤销这些决定也需要类似的准备时间,所以任何下意识的短期反应都没有多大的意义。

美国本土的企业困守愁城,欧洲的中小企业也在思考在美扩张是否还有必要。欧洲的经济支柱主要为中小企业,但相较于大型公司,这些企业财务缓冲更少,所以对贸易风险的反应更快。

但很多欧洲中小企业表示,并不打算在美国扩张业务。

代表德国中小企业的DMB协会会长MarcTenbieg指出,与特朗普的希望相反,他的保护主义不会导致更多德国公司迁往美国并在那里创造就业机会。

德国工程协会VDMA的北美贸易政策顾问AndrewAdair在本月初访问美国后还透露,该协会的一些成员公司正在推迟采购。目前,欧洲工业界正在对美国按下暂停键。

(财联社马兰)

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