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南通市(如皋市、如东县、通州区、海安市、启东市、崇川区、海门区)








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湖州市(德清县、南浔区、吴兴区、长兴县、安吉县)

  汇通财经APP讯——在周四的货币政策会议上,韩国央行七人委员会一致决定将基准利率维持在2.75%不变,此决定与市场多数预测一致。据市场调查显示,37位经济学家中有24位预测此次利率将维稳。此次按兵不动的背后,是韩国试图稳住动荡的韩元汇率。韩元在本月9日一度跌至16年新低,引发市场对金融稳定性的担忧。此次利率决策后,韩元略微收复部分失地,市场反应整体温和。

  美国关税政策冲击亚洲出口国,韩国受创尤深

  近年来,韩国高度依赖出口,尤其是对美国与亚洲大国的贸易往来。如今,美国政府对多国实施广泛的关税政策,并对韩国征收了25%的对等关税,尽管随后宣布暂停三个月,但其不确定性已对韩国形成显著压力。

  韩国财政部长崔相穆本周表示,“美国关税政策构成增长重大下行风险,政府将尝试通过谈判争取延后执行。”

  政府目前正寻求与华盛顿就关税条款进行磋商,并草拟一项额外12万亿韩元财政刺激预算,以应对不稳定的全球贸易环境及国内政治危机。

  市场预期韩国央行年内或将两次降息

  尽管当前利率维持不变,但分析师普遍预测,随着出口疲软与全球经济放缓预期加剧,韩国央行将在第二季度末前将基准利率降至2.25%。

  “考虑到特朗普关税政策带来的金融市场波动,我们预计韩国央行将在5月开始降息。”——渣打韩国分行经济学家朴钟勋

  他还指出,政府计划中的追加财政支出,若如预期年内达20万亿韩元,可望在明年推动GDP增长0.2-0.4个百分点。

  编辑观点:

  韩国目前面临内外夹击:一方面是出口市场因贸易担忧情绪受到重创,另一方面国内政治动荡也令政策空间受限。此次维持利率不变,反映出央行在通胀压力不显著的前提下,更多着眼于金融稳定。

  短期内,若美方关税政策仍不明朗,韩元恐将继续面临贬值压力,央行也难以大幅调降利率。长期来看,韩国或需加快经济结构转型,降低对外部市场的依赖,以应对全球贸易格局的持续重构。

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