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2025年4月14日,全球锂业龙头赣锋锂业连发三则重磅公告,犹如惊雷,在新能源行业掀起巨大反响——业绩巨亏、盐湖整合、固态电池突破……这家市值超千亿的巨头,在锂价暴跌、行业洗牌的至暗时刻,以“断臂求生+技术押注”的组合拳,悄然展开一场战略突围。

锂价腰斩背后的博弈

赣锋锂业披露2024年财报数据,营收同比下滑43%,净利润亏损20.74亿元,锂盐业务毛利率从历史高点的60%暴跌至10%。这一数据看似触目惊心,实则折射出整个锂电产业的集体阵痛。

2024年碳酸锂价格一度跌破8万元/吨,较2022年巅峰时期的60万元/吨缩水超85%。行业产能过剩、下游需求增速放缓、钠电池替代等多重因素叠加,让锂资源从“白色石油”沦为“周期囚徒”。赣锋的锂盐单吨毛利从3万元骤降至1万元,甚至逼近部分盐湖提锂企业的成本线。

财报中高达12亿元的资产减值损失,暗含深意。赣锋选择对非洲马里Goulamina锂矿、墨西哥Sonora黏土提锂项目等“次优资产”计提减值,实则是对低效产能的主动出清。这一动作与天齐锂业、雅化集团等同行形成鲜明对比——后者仍在咬牙硬撑高成本矿山,而赣锋已率先轻装上阵。

尽管锂盐业务巨亏,赣锋的锂电池板块(动力/储能电池)亏损收窄至0.62亿元,且产能利用率提升至78%。在宁德时代、比亚迪大打价格战的背景下,赣锋以差异化的固态电池技术路线,悄然卡位下一代电池赛道。

锂“合纵连横”

与LithiumArgentinaAG的盐湖整合协议,是赣锋锂业在资源端的“关键一子”。将阿根廷PPG、PG、SDLP三大盐湖合并为“PPGS锂盐湖项目”,其战略野心远超市场预期。

传统盐湖提锂需经历长达18个月的晒卤周期,而赣锋采用的吸附法+电化学直接提锂技术,可将周期缩短至3个月,且锂回收率提升至90%以上。这一技术已在青海盐湖验证成功,若在阿根廷复制,将彻底改写南美盐湖开发规则。

而面对美国《通胀削减法案》对关键矿产的封锁,赣锋通过与LithiumArgentinaAG股权绑定(持股46.7%),巧妙规避政策风险。该项目远期15万吨LCE产能,相当于2024年全球锂盐需求的12%,足以对冲澳大利亚锂矿的供应波动。

据公告,目前赣锋的盐湖提锂成本已降至3.5万元/吨,而澳洲锂辉石矿提锂成本仍在4.5万元/吨以上。当碳酸锂价格长期徘徊在8-10万元/吨时,盐湖产能将成为利润“安全垫”,而高成本矿山或将批量出局。

“弯道超车”

赣锋锂业在公告中首次确认“全固态电池量产能力”,并透露与某国际车企联合开发锂金属负极电池,这标志着其技术路线已从实验室走向商业化。

目前全球固态电池主要分为氧化物、硫化物、聚合物三条路线。赣锋选择的硫化物体系,虽对封装工艺要求极高,但离子电导率(10⁻³S/cm)远超竞争对手。其自主研发的柔性电解质薄膜,已突破界面阻抗难题,循环寿命超2000次。

赣锋为无人机定制的固态电池能量密度达450Wh/kg,较传统电池提升50%,且支持-30℃低温放电。这一突破直接瞄准万亿级低空经济市场——大疆、亿航等企业已启动测试,未来城市空中交通(UAM)的电池标准或由赣锋定义。

作为全球唯一实现“锂资源-锂化合物-金属锂-固态电解质-电芯”全链条打通的企业,赣锋的协同效应开始显现。其金属锂产能(5000吨/年)可完全自供负极材料,而固态电解质的成本已降至800元/kg以下,较三年前下降70%。

“反脆弱”生存

在新能源行业的暴风雨中,赣锋锂业展现出惊人的战略韧性,其“资源+技术”的双轮驱动模式,暗合产业变革的底层逻辑。

逆周期扩张:在行业低谷期整合优质盐湖资源,成本仅为高峰期并购的1/3; 

技术长线主义:连续8年研发投入占比超5%,固态电池专利数居全球第二; 

场景创新:从动力电池红海转向储能、无人机、机器人等增量市场。

据预测,2025年全球固态电池市场规模将突破200亿元,而赣锋有望占据30%份额。当锂价回升至10万元/吨以上时,其盐湖产能将释放巨大利润弹性,形成“锂价上涨赚资源钱,锂价低迷赚技术钱”的攻守兼备格局。

赣锋能否顺利突围?欢迎留言讨论。

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