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  转自:金融界

  直到昨晚人们才缓过神来,特朗普真正的交易是“卖掉美国”。

  全球市场继续遭遇抛售,尤其是对美国资产避之不及:

  -美元、美股、美债同步下跌,并且跌幅不小。美元一度跌破98水平,10年期美债收益率再度逼近4.5%,而美股三大股指跌幅均超2%;

  -与此同时,金价再创历史新高,突破3400美元——这是对美元信用体系的质疑。

  需要注意的是,特朗普对等关税引发的危机“未完待续”,现在又出现了第二轮危机“美联储独立性危机”。

  1、原本我们认为,特朗普通过周一亚洲时段市场的走势,应当认识到对美联储的批评已经影响到了市场,会想办法缓和,但事实相反——特朗普周一再次施压鲍威尔立即降息。在他看来,这恰恰是一场更大的“谈判”。他需要用舆论压力逼迫美联储提前降息,以配合他的减税和财政刺激政策。

  特朗普在TruthSocial上的一篇帖子中表示:“正如我所预测的那样,这些成本呈下降趋势,几乎不会出现通胀,但经济可能会放缓,除非‘太晚先生’,一个大失败者,现在降息。”

  2、这两场都是“人造危机”,解铃还须系铃人。要么特朗普在关税上让步,要么在与美联储的对峙中让步。

  摆在特朗普目前的是一道选择题:

  让美联储让步,在关税上更加激进;

  在关税上让步,更加猛烈批评美联储,换取美联储让步后,进一步升级关税政策。

  从特朗普的性格特点看,他可以轻易出尔反尔,但最终的目标不会改变。现在人们对任何消息都心存恐惧,感觉就像身处一个黑暗的房间里,地板上摆满了锋利的玻璃,最好的办法就是站着不动,祈祷灯能重新亮起来。但时间是不等人的,如果特朗普现在不让步,以后让步就晚了,市场会在最糟糕的情况还没发生前对其定价。

  3、现在最大的问题是,市场站在特朗普这一边,预计美联储今年会降息4次或更多。过去美联储“降息预期”只是单纯的被市场绑架,只需通过几场讲话便能扭转市场预期。而如今市场有了“带头大哥”。

  过去,美联储讲话可以轻松化解危机;如今,市场更在意的是特朗普的下一条推文。卖掉美国的不是资本,而是美国自己。(来源:华尔街情报圈)

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  本报记者 李乔宇

  近期,全球首场人形机器人半程马拉松比赛成功举行,“天工Ultra”机器人以2小时40分42秒的成绩冲线夺得冠军,其背后的北京人形机器人创新中心有限公司亦引发全球瞩目。

  当前,越来越多的企业布局具身智能赛道。据《证券日报》记者了解,三大通信运营商都对具身智能有所布局。

  三大运营商集体入场

  今年年初,中国移动成立中国移动具身智能产业创新中心(以下简称“具身智能产业创新中心”),对标位于上海的国家地方共建人形机器人创新中心以及北京人形机器人创新中心有限公司。

  据悉,具身智能产业创新中心将积极布局机器人领域,着力推进具身智能在泛家庭场景应用,聚焦核心技术攻坚,构建全栈式机器人能力图谱。公开信息显示,该创新中心将以推动中国移动成为全球最大的机器人运营商为目标,利用中国移动在网络、算力、模型、数据、信息服务方面的资源禀赋,聚焦机器人大脑技术攻关,加速推进具身智能的商业化进展。

  中国移动智慧家庭运营中心技术管理经理赵永生告诉《证券日报》记者,截至目前,中国移动已开通基站总数超686万个,覆盖超过10亿移动业务客户,为全球最大的移动通信运营商。未来,中国移动还将凭借自身的技术优势、网络覆盖以及遍布全国的渠道和运维团队,从全球最大的移动通信运营商迈向全球最大的机器人运营商。

  “预计今年6月份或7月份,我们自主研发的家用机器人四足狗会小批量进行运营试销售;同时,我们近期发布的迎宾导览机器人已经在广州试点运营。”赵永生对记者透露。

  中国电信相关负责人告诉《证券日报》记者,目前中国电信人工智能研究院(TeleAI)正在加速智传网(AI Flow)的布局和研究。智传网能够通过家族式同源模型协同将“端—边—云—网”高效串联,例如在制造业等实体经济领域,安排机器狗负责安全巡检,机械臂执行高精度的物料传输,异构机器人完成复杂装配等。

  中国联通旗下的物联网平台联通格物则打造了泛在连接与多网络制式智能适配、机器人多协议适配、多模态感知数据融合分析、端云训推协同的机器人设备智能升级,以及机器人智能体构建和共性能力开放共享等核心能力体系。

  市场规模有望持续提升

  今年,具身智能首次被写入《政府工作报告》。2025年《政府工作报告》提出,建立未来产业投入增长机制,培育生物制造、量子科技、具身智能、6G等未来产业。

  根据头豹研究报告,2023年,中国具身智能市场规模已经达到4186亿元。随着大模型技术突破,具身智能市场规模有望持续提升,2027年市场规模预计达到6328亿元。

  在赵永生看来,具身智能产业已经具备了进一步发展的基础。一方面,人形机器人可助力解决老龄化、劳动力短缺等问题,提高生产效率;另一方面,近年来人工智能大模型持续实现突破,多个语言视觉多模态大模型已经具备了较强能力。

  “在此背景下,亟须一个能够与人类物理世界有效交互的载体,承载大模型的能力,目前只有人形机器人具备这个潜质。”赵永生表示。

  《证券日报》记者多方采访了解到,部分具身智能企业仍对人形机器人如何实现商业化感到困惑。对此,一级市场投资人、青年投资家俱乐部副理事长宋晓飞告诉《证券日报》记者,人形机器人正步入应用深水区。随着硬件成本持续优化与人工智能深度赋能,行业从实验验证迈向实用探索。同时,头部企业的入局将加速技术迭代与场景适配。

  浙商证券机械国防首席分析师王华君对《证券日报》记者表示,人形机器人的商业化本质是技术成熟度、经济可行性与社会接受度的三重博弈。短期内,人形机器人将聚焦物流分拣、高危救援等场景的垂直技术适配验证与落地可行性测算;中长期则将依托AI算力跃迁与仿生材料革新重构产业链路。中国企业有望利用制造业纵深优势,在核心部件国产化与场景数据积累上构建差异化优势。

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