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  美国总统特朗普与各国展开关税等贸易谈判,瑞士宝盛中国研究策略师及香港区研究部主管邓启志指出,现时市场不确定性较高,港股的第一道防线是19000至19500点,取决于中美贸易协议何时达成,以及中国推出刺激经济措施的情况,例如以旧换新政策会否扩大至服务业,若成事将对文化、旅游及餐饮业有帮助。

  邓启志表示,美国4月首周的进口数据月环比下跌64%,反映关税的影响,但相信美国与所有国家的贸易谈判需时3至9个月,当中中美何时展开谈判仍是一大问号。基于中美的分歧较大,预期需时磋商,谈判要较长时间才能完成。

  行业配置方面,邓启志建议进攻时选择互联网相关的高beta股,因升得较快,防守时则可拣选消费概念、高派息及拥国企改革概念的股份。

  关于市场忧虑中概股从美退市风险,邓启志认为,现时大部分大型的中概股已港美两边上市,故即使中概股被迫从市退市,投资者也可以很容易将股分换成港股,故此对市场不会有太大冲击,相反,假若特朗普禁止美国投资者特别是养老基金投资中资股,对A股和港股的影响将更大,恒指有可能会退守19000点以下。

  美股方面,邓启志认为,参照历史数据,美股熊市平均回吐20%至30%,标普500指数回落至15倍左右,故目前美股或还未见底,第二季料呈整固格局。他指出,最近数周欧洲投资者大幅度减持美股,将资金投放至其他市场,成为美元走弱的关键。

  邓启志表示,美企公布第一季业绩后,对后市的盈利指引,或成为市场对美企盈利向下修订的触发点,故此即使美股短期或因超跌反弹,第三季或会再下试低位。

  (智通财经网)

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