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  来源:刘煜辉lyhfhtx的微博

今天盘中,A村小幅回调。但说实话,近期A村的表现其实比我预想的强很多。

因为我总觉得会二次探底,一是面临超高关税风波冲击,二是面临4月底年报和一季报业绩压力。但是A村硬顶着两大压力逆势而上,而且连续上涨……

欲擒故纵?

这到底怎么回事?我一直没想明白。

然后今天早上,我脑子里突然闪过一个念头:曾提醒大家规避业绩雷好几次,类似消息也非常多,很多人都预知风险,想躲4月底的这段时间。那么,主力会不会反其道而行之?

即散户以为有风险,它反而逆势连涨。

等散户以为风险过去,放心买了之后……

不过,究竟是真反弹,还是在表演?亦或者A村确实很低估,危机砸下来就是好买点?

纷繁复杂,说不清理不明。

这里涉及的技术分析较多,暂不展开阐述了,我曾写了一本小书《金融市场技术分析》,是我投资10多年的心血总结,想了解的后台发送“技术”加小助理获得,不妨趁着五一长假阅读下。

图片来源:小书目录

【操作步骤:好买研习社主页—点击消息栏—进入底部菜单栏(如下图)】。

但老话说的好:想躲过大跌的,一定会躲过大涨。

因此,我们与其这么猜来那么猜去,不如合适就买,保持正常定投,在额外大跌时则加一份定投。

与此同时,在A村投资,如果能有资产配置思维和周期思维(钟摆理论),收益和体验会稳定很多。我们也要向机构学习资产配置,稳健打底,适当增强。

投资好比军事战争

比如根据最新披露的公募基金一季报,目前基金总规模34.5万亿。

在其投资结构中:

债券持有约19.7万亿,约占比57%。

其次为权益股票等,持有市值6.92万亿,约占20%。

现金和其它的类现金资产(买入返售金融资产)各占10%,合计20%。

数据来源:iFind;截至2025年3月31日

这个6:2:2,其实就是大类配置占比。

当然了,也可以根据自己的风险偏好调整。但权益与固收配比、控制仓位节奏,这是必须要有的。

我一直认为,投资好比军事战争,不见硝烟却同样残酷。

因此,每个投资者都是自己财富的统帅,需要排兵布阵,让自己进可攻退可守。

而非把自己当作小卒,无脑梭哈、无脑赌博。

前者的模式,也能让我们避免踩大坑。由于回撤小,爬坑回本很快。看似慢,实际快。

后者梭哈、赌博式投资,看似快,也确实快,但一个不慎就是深套,时间和精力全花在回本上了。

最后经历诸多风雨,才发现得不偿失,还不如一开始注定稳扎稳打。

很多投资者浮亏累累,就是没分清两者差异,或控制不住自己的人性,做了看似快实际慢的交易。

姜诚和刘旭的一季报

在最新披露的基金一季报中,也有不少基金经理的观点值得我们借鉴。

我挑了2位长期业绩稳健的老司机,跟大家摘录如下。

第一,中泰姜诚。

以姜诚的混合型基金经理指数为例,姜诚所管基金不仅在前几年市场大涨时表现出色,而且在市场大跌时扛跌性十足。

基本保住了牛市的果实,净值还进一步攀升。成功做到了前面阐述的核心状态:稳中求进。

数据来源:iFind;截至2025年4月23日

行业配置方面,代表作中泰玉衡价值优选混合A长期重仓银行、化工、建筑装饰、轻工制造、家电、房地产、交通运输等行业。

数据来源:iFind;截至2025年3月31日

在一季报中,面对贸易战,姜诚明确写到:我国具有完备的产业链,可运用的政策空间还有很多,不必急于判断,后续的操作仍是以多看少动为妙。

行业方面,姜诚认为很多行业最差的状态已过,有些正处于最差状态。

“有竞争优势的企业,在行业低点仍能获得可观利润,它们是大浪淘沙之后的佼佼者,价格又让人放心,是我们格外珍视的好标的。”

第二,大成刘旭。

以刘旭的偏股型基金经理指数为例,所管基金净值同样稳中求进。

不过和姜诚的价值、红利风格不同,刘旭在价值红利基础上,适当增配科技、成长,进攻性更强些。

数据来源:iFind;截至2025年4月23日

今年一季度,刘旭也再次火力全开,大举加仓港股资产。对港股科技更是重点布局,像某讯控股、某里巴巴,都是新进前十大重仓股。

数据来源:iFind;截至2025年3月31日;仅案例分享,不构成投资建议

不过刘旭的一季报比较简洁,几乎啥也没写。

只提到投资是一个与变化共生的工作,要在快速变化的环境中理解企业价值,把握机会,规避风险。

刘旭是如何控制回撤的呢?

他曾在直播中提到,“买点很重要,说白了就是买的便宜,买进去跌不了太多,会有一个比较清晰的价值底部托着,风险相对可控。如果组合都是在风口上的,回撤挑战会很大。”

市场有风险,投资需谨慎。基金的过往业绩及其净值高低或基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不预示其未来表现。相关数据仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资人应详阅基金合同等法律文件,了解产品风险收益特征,根据自身资产状况、风险承受能力审慎决策,独立承担投资风险。特别提醒,基金在封闭运作期间或特定持有期间存在无法赎回的流动性风险。

本文所载信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议,投资者不应该将本文的内容作为投资决策的参考因素。对于本文可能涉及的观点、报告、解读、推测、市场资讯等内容,仅代表作者个人观点,不代表我公司观点,请务必审慎对待。市场有风险,投资需谨慎,请您结合自身资产状况、风险承受能力,审慎做出投资决策,独立承担投资风险。

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