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  俄罗斯总统普京周一提议与乌克兰举行多年来的首次双边会谈。乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示,基辅已准备好就停止对平民目标的袭击进行任何讨论。

  普京和泽连斯基都面临着来自美国的压力,美国威胁说除非取得一些进展,否则将放弃其和平努力。

  在莫斯科周末宣布复活节停火30小时后,俄罗斯和乌克兰表示对进一步停火持开放态度。双方都指责对方违反了停火协议。

  会谈定于本周在伦敦举行。乌克兰周一表示,将派遣一个代表团与美国和欧洲国家的官员会面。美国和欧洲国家上周在巴黎举行会议,讨论如何结束这场持续了三年多的冲突。

  普京在接受俄罗斯国家电视台记者采访时说,复活节停火后战火重燃。他表示莫斯科对任何和平倡议持开放态度,并希望基辅也能这样做。

  “我们一直在谈论这个问题,我们对任何和平倡议都持积极态度。我们希望基辅政权的代表们也能有同样的想法,”普京对国家电视台记者PavelZarubin说。

  国际文传电讯社(Ifax)随后报导,克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫告诉记者,“当总统说有可能讨论不打击平民目标的问题时,总统考虑的是与乌克兰方面进行谈判和讨论。”

  泽连斯基在夜间视频讲话中说,乌克兰坚持其停止袭击平民目标的提议,并准备为实现这一目标进行任何形式的讨论。

  他说,伦敦会谈的“首要任务是推动无条件停火。必须以此为起点。”

  本报记者 刘 琪

  4月21日,新一期LPR(贷款市场报价利率)出炉。中国人民银行(以下简称“央行”)授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布,2025年4月21日,1年期LPR为3.1%,5年期以上LPR为3.6%。两个品种LPR均维持前值不变,截至目前LPR已经连续6个月“原地踏步”。

  业界普遍认为,4月份LPR继续“按兵不动”,符合预期。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对《证券日报》记者表示,4月份以来政策利率保持不变,这意味着本月LPR的定价基础未发生变化,已在很大程度上预示4月份LPR报价会保持不动。另外,当前银行净息差处于历史低位,报价行主动下调LPR报价加点的动力不足。

  “总体上看,年初以来LPR持续不动,根本上是一季度经济走势偏强,由此,尽管当前货币政策基调为适度宽松,但下调LPR的迫切性不强。”王青说。

  中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示,4月份流动性缺口较小,资金面相较于3月份更为宽松,而MLF(中期借贷便利)到期压力仅为1000亿元,商业银行负债端压力相对可控,逆回购利率下调的紧迫性不大。尽管面临外部不利因素影响,但股市情绪修复弹性较强,一季度经济数据超预期,总量宽货币工具快速落地稳定市场预期的必要性并不高。

  国家统计局日前发布数据显示,初步核算,一季度国内生产总值318758亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长5.4%,比上年四季度环比增长1.2%,一季度国民经济开局良好。另据央行近日公布的一季度金融数据显示,一季度社会融资规模增量超15万亿元、新增贷款达9.78万亿元,均处于历史较高水平,金融支持实体经济力度稳固。

  此外,明明表示,4月份受外部因素的影响汇率压力或进一步加大。4月初离岸人民币汇率一度抬升至7.4以上,虽然当下回归7.3附近,但未来不确定性仍高,总量降息操作或等待更好的时机。

  展望后期,王青预计,综合当前外部经贸环境变化,国内房地产市场和物价走势,二季度“择机降准降息”时机或已成熟。短期政策利率可能调降30个基点,降幅与去年全年相当,进而带动LPR报价下行,引导企业和居民贷款利率下调,较大幅度降低实体经济融资成本。这是当前促消费、扩投资,大力提振内需,对冲潜在外需放缓,切实增强宏观经济韧性的有效措施之一。

  明明认为,结合当前基本面修复情况、股市回暖节奏以及汇率压力来看,预计短期货币端或以预期管理为主,保留政策余量应对外部不利因素带来的潜在的冲击。同时,预计政策优先级上,降准或高于降息。

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