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事项

公司发布2024年年报。24年实现总营收30.73亿元,同比-4.2%;归母净利润5.14亿元,同比-3.1%;24Q4实现营收7.85亿元,同比-10.3%;归母净利润1.63亿元,同比+13.4%;25Q1实现营收8.31亿元,同比-7.1%;归母净利润1.61亿元,同比+3.7%。公司拟每10股派息5.0元(含税),对应股息率4.13%。

评论

行业竞争加剧,主动推进调整,24全年及25Q1营收略低预期。24全年公司实现30.73亿,同比-4.2%,下滑一是23年存在高基数,二是同类型零添加竞品显著增多,三是下半年公司主动推进经营调整。若分产品来看,酱油/食醋/其他品类分别同比-3.8%/-12.5%/-0.5%,其中酱油价盘下降明显(量价分别+1.3%/-5.0%);分地区来看,东部/南部/中部/北部/西部区域营收分别同比-1.78%/+13.99%/-7.07%/-1.36%/-8.89%。拆分单季度看,24Q4压力放大、营收同比-10.3%,25Q1压力延续,营收同比-7.1%,其中酱油/食醋分别同比-4.7%/-10.6%,经销商数目同比减少74个至3282个。

24全年盈利同比基本持平,而24Q4及25Q1毛利率优化带动盈利向上改善。24全年公司毛利率37.2%,同比+0.1pcts,其中上半年毛利率同比下滑,而下半年伴随产品结构调整、成本进一步回落,毛利率同比均有一定提升。在费用端,销售费率同比+1.6pcts,公司适当加大促销及广宣费用,管理费用率同比-1.5pcts,主要系股份支付费用明显减少,而其他费用方面基本平稳,最终公司归母净利润率同比基本持平。25Q1公司毛利率38.9%,同比+2.9pcts,而销售费用率/管理费用率同比+0.6pcts/持平,最终归母净利润率录得19.3%,同比+2.0pcts。

短期压力显现,经营积极调整,25全年营收有望前低后高、渐进改善。24下半年来,一方面竞对挤压力度加大,另一方面公司主动推进调整,间接导致报表降速明显,但好在公司守住内在经营质量,渠道体系、产品体系、库存管理等环比均有一定优化。3月舆情事件扰动,或再影响经营节奏,公司已积极回应相关事项,表示会尽快按新规要求执行,期待后续调整进一步落地。年内来看,今年考虑竞争加大,同时外部事件影响,预计上半年基本面压力延续,下半年考虑基数下降、公司调整,收入端有望渐进改善、前低后高,而利润端考虑成本红利以及效率优化,预计表现优于收入。

投资建议

营收低于预期,经营持续调整,维持“推荐”评级。公司24年及25Q1报表承压,考虑近期外部事件扰动,预计短期仍有一定压力。我们认为公司机制灵活、反应高效,且实际运营层面相对平稳,若后续调整得当,下半年有望恢复增长。我们调整25-26年EPS预测为0.53/0.58元(原预测为0.54/0.63元),新增27年EPS预测0.64元,对应PE为22/20/18倍,维持目标价14.7元,对应25年约28倍PE,维持“推荐”评级。

风险提示

下游需求低迷;市场竞争加剧;费用投放加大;食品安全问题等。

附录:财务预测表

团队介绍

组长、首席分析师:欧阳予

浙江大学本科,荷兰伊拉斯姆斯大学研究型硕士,

8

年食品饮料研究经验。曾任职于招商证券,

2020

年加入华创证券。

2021-2024

年连续四届获新财富、新浪金麒麟最佳分析师评选第一名,其中

2024

年获新财富、新浪金麒麟、水晶球和

21

世纪金牌分析师等评选第一名。

——白酒研究组(白酒、红酒、黄酒、酒类流通行业)

分析师:田晨曦

英国伯明翰大学硕士,2020年加入华创证券研究所。

分析师:刘旭德

北京大学硕士,2021年加入华创证券研究所。

助理研究员:王培培

南开大学金融学硕士,2024年加入华创研究所。

——大众品研究组(低度酒、软饮料、乳肉制品、调味品、烘焙休闲食品、预制食品、餐饮连锁、食品配料)

组长、高级分析师:范子盼

中国人民大学硕士,6年消费行业研究经验,曾任职于长江证券,2020年加入华创证券研究所。

分析师:杨畅

美国南佛罗里达大学硕士,2020年加入华创证券研究所。

研究员:严晓思

上海交通大学金融学硕士,2022年加入华创证券研究所。

助理研究员:严文炀

南京大学经济学硕士,2023年加入华创证券研究所。

执委会委员、副总裁、华创证券研究所所长、新财富白金分析师:董广阳

上海财经大学经济学硕士,16年食品饮料研究经验。曾任职于招商证券,瑞银证券。自2013至2024年,获得新财富最佳分析师八届第一,两届第二,一届第三,获金牛奖最佳分析师连续三届第一,连续三届全市场最具价值分析师,获水晶球最佳分析师连续三届第一,获新浪金麒麟、上证报最佳分析师评选连续五届第一。

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