Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆
随机图片

推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆

更新时间: 浏览次数: 727

400电话:123456(点击咨询)
推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆各观看免费《今日汇总》
推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆各热线观看免费2025已更新(2025已更新)








推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆观看免费电话:(1)123456(点击咨询)(2)123456(点击咨询)








推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆观看免费热线(1)123456(点击咨询)(2)123456(点击咨询)




推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆各区点热线观看免费《今日发布》
Random Image 推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆电话








7天观看免费人工电话为您、推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆团队在调度中心的统筹调配下,线下专业及各地区人员团队等专属,整个报修流程规范有序,后期同步跟踪查询公开透明。








所有团队均经过专业培训、持证上岗,所用产品配件均为原厂直供,








推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆各观看免费《今日汇总》2025已更新(今日/推荐)








推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆电话区域:








荆州市(洪湖市、石首市、江陵县、沙市区、公安县、荆州区、松滋市、监利市)








莆田市(城厢区、秀屿区、荔城区、仙游县、涵江区)








郴州市(汝城县、桂阳县、永兴县、苏仙区、桂东县、嘉禾县、资兴市、安仁县、宜章县、北湖区、临武县)








攀枝花市(东区、米易县、仁和区、盐边县、西区)  周口市(扶沟县、项城市、太康县、商水县、淮阳区、鹿邑县、沈丘县、郸城县、西华县、川汇区)








贵港市(平南县、覃塘区、桂平市、港南区、港北区)








延安市(安塞区、黄陵县、子长市、志丹县、黄龙县、吴起县、宝塔区、延长县、宜川县、富县、甘泉县、洛川县、延川县)








廊坊市(大城县、霸州市、文安县、香河县、永清县、三河市、大厂回族自治县、安次区、固安县、广阳区)








三明市(宁化县、清流县、三元区、泰宁县、大田县、沙县区、将乐县、建宁县、尤溪县、永安市、明溪县)  佛山市(顺德区、禅城区、高明区、南海区、三水区)








五指山市(乐东黎族自治县、昌江黎族自治县、保亭黎族苗族自治县、陵水黎族自治县、万宁市、白沙黎族自治县、文昌市、屯昌县、东方市、定安县、琼海市、临高县、琼中黎族苗族自治县、澄迈县)








贺州市(钟山县、富川瑶族自治县、昭平县、八步区、平桂区)








拉萨市(墨竹工卡县、当雄县、曲水县、城关区、林周县、尼木县、达孜区、堆龙德庆区)








果洛藏族自治州(玛沁县、班玛县、甘德县、达日县、久治县、玛多县)








荆门市(掇刀区、东宝区、钟祥市、京山市、沙洋县)








阜新市(海州区、彰武县、太平区、清河门区、新邱区、阜新蒙古族自治县、细河区)








绵阳市(梓潼县、江油市、盐亭县、北川羌族自治县、游仙区、安州区、涪城区、三台县、平武县)








本溪市(平山区、南芬区、桓仁满族自治县、本溪满族自治县、明山区、溪湖区)








甘南藏族自治州(碌曲县、夏河县、玛曲县、合作市、卓尼县、舟曲县、迭部县、临潭县)








玉溪市(红塔区、元江哈尼族彝族傣族自治县、新平彝族傣族自治县、通海县、澄江市、易门县、峨山彝族自治县、江川区、华宁县)








宜春市(袁州区、奉新县、宜丰县、靖安县、丰城市、樟树市、上高县、铜鼓县、高安市、万载县)








白城市(大安市、通榆县、镇赉县、洮南市、洮北区)








宁夏回族自治区








日照市(莒县、东港区、岚山区、五莲县)








天津市(滨海新区、河东区、红桥区、东丽区、河北区、河西区、静海区、宝坻区、津南区、蓟州区、西青区、南开区、武清区、北辰区、和平区、宁河区)








晋中市(平遥县、左权县、昔阳县、太谷区、灵石县、和顺县、介休市、祁县、榆次区、寿阳县、榆社县)








亳州市(谯城区、蒙城县、涡阳县、利辛县)








巴中市(平昌县、通江县、巴州区、恩阳区、南江县)








广西壮族自治区
400电话:123456(点击咨询)
推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆各观看免费《今日汇总》《今日发布》
推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆各观看免费《今日汇总》(2025已更新)








推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆观看免费电话:(1)123456(点击咨询)(2)123456(点击咨询)








推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆观看免费热线(1)123456(点击咨询)(2)123456(点击咨询)




推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆各观看免费《今日汇总》【2025已更新列表】
推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆电话








7天观看免费人工电话为您、推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆团队在调度中心的统筹调配下,线下专业及各地区人员团队等专属,整个报修流程规范有序,后期同步跟踪查询公开透明。








所有团队均经过专业培训、持证上岗,所用产品配件均为原厂直供,








推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆中心2025已更新(今日/推荐)








推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆电话区域:








兰州市(城关区、西固区、永登县、七里河区、红古区、榆中县、皋兰县、安宁区)








西藏自治区








三沙市(西沙区、南沙区)








十堰市(竹溪县、郧阳区、竹山县、郧西县、张湾区、茅箭区、丹江口市、房县)  柳州市(柳南区、柳城县、鹿寨县、三江侗族自治县、融安县、柳江区、鱼峰区、城中区、柳北区、融水苗族自治县)








江门市(恩平市、开平市、蓬江区、江海区、新会区、鹤山市、台山市)








上海市(虹口区、长宁区、奉贤区、松江区、黄浦区、静安区、普陀区、崇明区、徐汇区、宝山区、金山区、青浦区、浦东新区、杨浦区、闵行区、嘉定区)








黑河市(孙吴县、逊克县、北安市、五大连池市、爱辉区、嫩江市)厦门市(海沧区、集美区、同安区、翔安区、思明区、湖里区)








七台河市(茄子河区、桃山区、新兴区、勃利县)  苏州市(姑苏区、太仓市、吴中区、张家港市、常熟市、相城区、虎丘区、吴江区、昆山市)








镇江市(丹阳市、句容市、润州区、京口区、扬中市、丹徒区)








铜川市(耀州区、宜君县、印台区、王益区)








六盘水市(水城区、六枝特区、盘州市、钟山区)宜昌市(长阳土家族自治县、枝江市、伍家岗区、宜都市、秭归县、远安县、西陵区、猇亭区、五峰土家族自治县、当阳市、夷陵区、兴山县、点军区)








平顶山市(湛河区、新华区、卫东区、宝丰县、郏县、石龙区、汝州市、舞钢市、叶县、鲁山县)








天水市(秦州区、甘谷县、清水县、武山县、张家川回族自治县、麦积区、秦安县)








驻马店市(泌阳县、正阳县、新蔡县、驿城区、遂平县、上蔡县、平舆县、西平县、汝南县、确山县)








海西蒙古族藏族自治州(茫崖市、乌兰县、德令哈市、格尔木市、都兰县、天峻县)








儋州市








遂宁市(射洪市、船山区、大英县、蓬溪县、安居区)








信阳市(息县、商城县、浉河区、固始县、平桥区、潢川县、罗山县、淮滨县、新县、光山县)








南阳市(宛城区、社旗县、方城县、镇平县、邓州市、新野县、桐柏县、西峡县、南召县、内乡县、卧龙区、唐河县、淅川县)








连云港市(连云区、东海县、赣榆区、灌云县、灌南县、海州区)








阿坝藏族羌族自治州(红原县、茂县、松潘县、马尔康市、黑水县、九寨沟县、小金县、金川县、壤塘县、理县、汶川县、若尔盖县、阿坝县)








达州市(宣汉县、渠县、通川区、达川区、开江县、万源市、大竹县)








商洛市(镇安县、商州区、洛南县、柞水县、山阳县、商南县、丹凤县)








衢州市(龙游县、柯城区、常山县、开化县、衢江区、江山市)








绥化市(绥棱县、安达市、兰西县、望奎县、北林区、肇东市、海伦市、明水县、青冈县、庆安县)








山南市(浪卡子县、错那市、琼结县、措美县、扎囊县、桑日县、隆子县、贡嘎县、曲松县、乃东区、洛扎县、加查县)








无锡市(新吴区、宜兴市、锡山区、梁溪区、江阴市、滨湖区、惠山区)

  今日A股上午震荡走弱,但尾盘翻红。宽基层面,上证指数收涨0.26%,报3276.00点,深证成指下跌0.85%,创业板指下跌1.21%,科创综指下跌0.35%。量能方面,市场成交总额11119亿元,较前一交易日的10772亿元增加347亿元。大型宽基ETF的成交额在尾盘也出现了明显抬升。

  行业层面,黄金、交运、基建、红利国企等偏防守板块涨幅居前,唯一的特例为半导体产业链;其余进攻型板块集体下跌,人工智能、港股科技、工业母机、通信领跌。

  由今日市场结构可见,短期情绪较弱。个股层面,全市场共1008只股票上涨,4310只股票下跌;风格层面,小盘明显弱于大盘,成长弱于价值,双创弱于主板。整体而言,市场今日风险偏好偏弱运行。

  上周美国关税政策飘忽不定,同时美国关税政策和债务到期压力加剧经济衰退和金融流动性萎缩风险,市场避险情绪大幅抬升,同时美元指数大幅下挫,对于金价均构成一定利好,金价大幅抬升、再创历史新高,黄金基金ETF(518800)今日涨超2%。

  特朗普的政策主张来看,激进的关税政策加剧了美国经济陷入“通货膨胀与经济停滞并存”的“滞胀”风险;同时政策的反复加剧了市场不确定性,对于金价也有一定支撑。特朗普“逆全球化”关税政策主张也可能会一定程度上促进央行购金趋势。

  长期看,货币超发及财政赤字货币化背景下,美元信用体系受到挑战;加上全球地缘动荡频发推动资产储备多元化,黄金作为安全资产的需求持续提升。全球“去美元化”的趋势使得黄金有望成为新一轮定价锚,贵金属有望具备上行动能。央行购金趋势仍在持续,中国央行连续5个月增持黄金,3月末储备达7370万盎司,较2024年11月累计增持114万盎司,创2019年以来最快增速。后续可持续关注地缘政治形势、全球宏观经济走势及全球央行购金情况,当前金价处于历史高位时不建议追高,但若回调或可考虑逢低布局黄金基金ETF(518800)。

  地缘冲突背景下,自主可控领域投资价值凸显。半导体设备ETF(159516)自关税事件后上涨超8%。

  关税贸易战本质是中美大国对抗,利好国产替代的科技板块,半导体自主可控逻辑有望直接受益。后续特朗普政府对中国的科技制裁力度或持续加大,科技板块自主可控的重要性将进一步提升,国产替代逻辑存在持续催化,半导体产业链存在中长线的投资机会。

  基本面上,根据SIA的数据,2025年2月全球半导体销售额为549.2亿美元,连续16个月同比增长。其中中国半导体销售额为150.6亿美元,同比增长5.6%。存储方面,2月DRAM合约价与1月持平,NANDFlash合约价回升,3月DRAM现货价上涨。TrendForce预计今年二季度DRAM因下游客户库存去化顺利,合约价跌幅将收敛。NANDFlash因供应商减产奏效和买方回补库存,合约价将逐步回升

  资料来源:SIA,国信证券经济研究所整理

  目前用于光模块产品的光芯片大部分采用IDM的生产模式,美日供应商居多,大多在本土流片,新规有望加速国产光芯片厂商的认证导入及份额提升。此外,模拟芯片国产化率较低,且全球前两大模拟芯片企业均为美国厂商。我国模拟芯片企业近几年加大研发投入,且模拟芯片采用成熟制程,国内产能充足,具有国产替代的能力和空间。感兴趣的投资者可以紧密跟踪半导体设备ETF(159516)、集成电路ETF(159546)、科创芯片ETF国泰(589100)、芯片ETF(512760)等相关板块的表现。

  今日,港股科技ETF(513020)再度下跌3.50%,已接近4月7日,即关税动荡后首个交易日的平均价。近20日,港股科技累计跌幅达到18.39%。如果将情绪极致释放后,港股科技在4月9日创出的最低价(0.88元)作为支撑位,港股科技的下跌空间仅有12%左右。那么,港股科技到了抄底的时间点吗,如何看待港股科技未来的走势?

  基本面角度,关税壁垒的走向仍是最大的扰动因素之一,特朗普政府的反复也引发了全球行情的震荡摇摆。但是我们看到,情绪过后,市场逐渐走向对关税落地后经济走势的博弈。目前,对于美国向我国加征145%关税的影响,不同机构给出了相近的结论。中金公司认为,参照上一轮中美贸易摩擦,假设出口对价格的弹性在0.8-1。在55-60%的关税下,预计中国对美出口下降45-60%,拖累经济增速约1.5%;沿着这一逻辑,我们推断若实际落地关税更高,极端到切断了中美主要贸易,我国经济增速的变化可能接近2%。民生证券则认为,若特朗普再度向全球加征关税,影响我国“转出口”部分,则关税冲击强度扩大至2018年的4.5倍,中国总增加值增速或被拖累1.72%。若聚焦于港股本身的盈利,中金公司认为,在54%关税条件下,港股市场盈利增速,或从此前预期的4-5%下调至负数;若无政策对冲,追加的关税将使盈利增速下调10个百分点。若盈利下修,港股或仍有下跌空间。

  然而,对于关税落地与经济预期,仍存在两个重大变数。其一在于我国促内需的政策,能否对冲关税的影响。可以紧密关注本月底政治局会议的定调。其二在于关税政策的演变路径。民生证券提出了四条演变路径。1)特朗普再度对全球加税,影响中美间接出口,中美割裂进一步加剧。我国总增加值增速或被拖累1.72%,出口依赖强的纺服、电子、机械将进一步承压。2)我国主导新的贸易圈。若其他国家选择反制美国,则我国对这些国家的份额有望抬升,尤其包含欧洲、日韩与印度,中国总增加值增速或仅被拖累0.09%,中国外需不会受到美国关税的明显影响。3)美国主导了新的贸易圈,并以“对中国加关税”作为谈判条件,孤立我国。此时,大部分部门通过外需带来的增长都将转负,外贸以来行业进一步受损。4)进入制衡状态。欧洲、东南亚进入中美贸易圈的中间地带。中国总增加值增速或被拖累1.43%,与当下场景的影响类似。受出口国家结构的影响,纺服、机械、运输、化工等板块反而迎来利好。站在当下时间点,出于避险的考量,不建议投资者单边押注,而应积极做好分散化配置。

  资金面角度,港股资金流入的主力军为南下资金。虽然我们无法得知南下资金具体的结构,参考中金公司的判断,南向的持续流入可能来自个人与私募的活跃,以及公募与险资的持续配置。例如,港股类ETF的净流入快速抬升,背后很可能来自个人投资者;港股通部分中小市值标的异常波动,不排除有私募与游资的参与;险资仍在配置港股红利板块,公募则增配了港股科技。然而,个人、私募等包含较多的投机资金,受到市场走势的影响很大,对后市并没有坚固的支撑。中金公司测算,长期资金进入港股的剩余空间约在3000亿港币左右,而年初以来已流入的资金超过3700亿。因此,南下资金的势头很可能放缓。

  当然,欧美长线资金也有可能阶段性撤离港股市场,但是影响有限。海外资金今年以来虽有所回流,但规模明显小于去年“924”,且主要以被动和交易资金为主。

  从行业结构角度,港股科技与港股红利或比港股大盘更有优势。从科技角度上讲,科技叙事逻辑仍是目前的主线。无论贸易战如何推进,高新科技层面的自主可控仍是主要的发展目标。其次,港股科技主要涵盖互联网+芯片+新能源车+生物医药,相对更加受益于内需。根据2024年三季报数据,阿里巴巴的海外业务占营收的13.0%;腾讯9.8%,快手仅3.7%等,影响相对可控。当然,也需要谨慎对待小米、药明等海外占比较高的企业。而从红利角度上讲,港股国企避险属性更强,同样具有配置价值。

  综上所述,建议投资者持续关注关税进展与我国的政策表述,乐观对待科技、红利主线,可逢低布局港股科技ETF(513020)、港股国企ETF(159519)、红利港股ETF(159331)。

  风险提示:投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险,不能保证投资人获得收益,也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。无论是股票ETF/LOF/分级基金,都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种,其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票,会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险,提请投资者注意。板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料,仅供参考,不构成对基金业绩的保证。文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考,不构成股票推荐,也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。以上观点仅供参考,不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品,请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规定、提前做好风险测评,并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金有风险,投资需谨。

  特约作者:国泰基金

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错! 推荐几个没封的正能量网站|暗夜情愫,心灵的独家记忆的相关文章 王楚钦输球后苦笑看向王皓的相关文章
著名经济学家等900人签署反关税宣言
北理工副院长遭举报师德失范被开除
古特雷斯称加沙成为杀戮之地
网传广西村民跪地求雨视频系摆拍
网传大量「人造蛋」流入市场
美国免除智能手机电脑对等关税
敦促美方彻底取消对等关税错误做法
肥胖或取代吸烟成为第一致癌因素
李昀锐冰湖重生是最热闹的杀青
福特暂停向中国出口汽车
古特雷斯称加沙成为杀戮之地
约基奇谈小波特被DNP
  • 友情链接:
  • 印度29亿卢比修的厕所 大自然汉字里的谷雨生机 美联储被总统控制会发生什么 三星宣布延长工时 每周工作64小时 成龙林俊杰合唱《真心英雄》 独立游戏《沙拉的黑店》疑被上市公司抄袭 女生跑八百米 男朋友在终点等候 温州前高考理科状元考上基层公务员 小卡关键时刻隐身遭批被高估 快删除手机里的这些APP

    查看更多评价 ∨