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  证券时报记者裴利瑞

  4月19日,全球首个人形机器人半程马拉松在北京亦庄开赛,来自北京人形机器人创新中心和优必选科技的“天工Ultra”以2小时40分42秒的成绩冲线,夺得全球首个人形机器人半程马拉松赛事桂冠。

  赛事不仅是科技实力的竞技场,更是资本市场的风向标。最新披露的公募基金一季报显示,“机器人”已经成为基金季报的高频热词,多只机器人概念股在一季度获基金增持,且为基金贡献了丰厚的收益。

  多只概念股获基金增持

  近期,公募基金2025年一季报陆续披露,多只机器人概念股获得基金加仓,甚至成为基金一季度收益的胜负手。

  比如,平安先进制造主题基金一季度涨幅达53.65%,位居股票型基金首位,该基金便重仓了人形机器人板块,基金规模在一季度从0.48亿元激增至13.21亿元。

  一季报显示,该基金大幅加仓了恒立液压、浙江荣泰、奥比中光、三花智控、龙溪股份等机器人概念股,其中恒立液压、浙江荣泰、龙溪股份等在一季度涨幅均超过50%,为该基金贡献了丰厚收益。

  以恒立液压为例,除了平安先进制造主题外,该股还在今年一季度获得了国投瑞银基金基金经理施成旗下国投瑞银新能源、国投瑞银产业趋势、国投瑞银先进制造等产品的组团加仓。

  此外,华富科技动能、中欧碳中和基金在一季度加仓了三花智控,中欧盛世成长、永赢新能源智选、长城久鑫、德邦高端装备等基金加仓了浙江荣泰,平安先进制造、中欧盛世成长增持了龙溪股份。

  长城久鑫基金经理余欢在一季报中透露,他在一季度走访调研了多个地方的机器人本体企业和零部件公司。“春江水暖鸭先知,我们发现,行业发展方兴未艾,越来越多的地方政府开始大力支持机器人行业的发展,也有越来越多的企业开始涉足并重点布局机器人领域。同时,我们还发现,制造和供应链优势会让国内企业在机器人行业的量产及降本中扮演不可或缺的角色。”余欢表示,他预计今年会是机器人量产元年,很可能会看到一定数量的机器人在工厂落地,开始新的“进化”训练之旅,为未来的进一步放量做准备。

  行业或将呈现近百倍增速

  在一季报中,多位基金经理也阐述了自己在机器人板块上的具体投资逻辑。

  永赢新能源智选基金经理胡泽认为,电动化推动了智能化,许多新能源汽车标的将充分受益于本轮智能化浪潮,向机器人等AI方向拓圈,并培育第二成长极。

  首先,许多国内汽车大厂都在积极布局机器人相关业务,这些大厂都将是中国重要的机器人本体厂商,这些汽车大厂在AI算力上的投入也能够一定程度地复用到机器人AI模型上。

  其次,非常多的汽车零部件企业也在开发相应的机器人产品,例如丝杠、减速器、结构件等。在技术、生产设备上,有非常多的技术能够复用到机器人领域。

  最后,国内机器人本体厂商的方案和海外大厂逐渐出现了一定差异性,例如国内本体厂对行星减速器的使用要多于国外本体厂,这也一定程度上说明国内厂商在持续降本和技术改进方面的能力较强。

  中欧信息科技混合基金经理杜厚良预计,2024—2026年,机器人行业将呈现近100倍的增长速度,行业规模从2024年的不到10亿元,增长至2026年的接近1000亿元。

  “虽然我们坚信人形机器人是机器人远期最大的应用场景,但从阶段性来看,工业机器人、特种机器人等领域预计将率先实现落地,并为相关公司带来规模化的收入和利润。例如,工厂无人搬运(包括载具和非载具)、高危环境下的巡检、特种及防爆场景下的机器人救援等,类似场景在2025年将迎来大规模爆发。”杜厚良表示。

  平安先进制造主题基金经理张荫先认为,多家国内外的人形机器人企业都立下了2025年量产交付千台级别以上人形机器人的目标,产业逐步迎来量产时刻。人形机器人产业的发展轨迹将对标智能手机与电动汽车,而且持续周期会更长,赛道容量也更为庞大。

  需要在细分领域做取舍

  不过,一季度末以来,人形机器人出现了一定程度的调整,多位基金经理也在一季报中提示短期风险,并透露了新的调仓逻辑。

  融通新能源汽车主题基金经理王迪认为,智能驾驶相关技术未来具有迁移至机器人等领域的机会,将进一步打开主要参与者的市场空间。汽车零部件公司也是如此,大量汽车零部件公司开始涉足机器人配套链。但该基金目前对机器人零部件领域配置较少,主要由于需求还未明显起量、商业化短期不明的背景下,竞争已是红海,需要一个优胜劣汰的过程。

  张荫先透露,在机器人板块短期上涨较多后,他逐渐在机器人细分领域内做出取舍,例如在同质化竞争激烈的品种定价较为充分后,他更愿意把仓位布局在感知类零部件、新制造工艺、潜在新型电机方案、整机组装代工商、积极拓展机器人业务且估值相对偏低的公司等。

  “这也符合本产品一贯的投资方法:一方面布局确定性,寻找在机器人业务中较高概率进入供应链的公司;另一方面挖掘弹性,积极寻找主业基本面有支撑或改善,同时新拓展机器人业务的优秀公司,这类标的一旦实现从0到1的新突破,有望获得估值及业绩的双击机会。”张荫先说。

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