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儋州市

上一次美联储屈从于总统,是1971年,随后通胀失控,经济滞涨,时任美联储主席伯恩斯身败名裂。今天的鲍威尔,绝不想重演伯恩斯的命运。

特朗普正用一条条推文威胁美联储的独立性,而上一次美国总统如此施压美联储,要追溯到1971年,美国大滞胀时代的前夕。

1971年,美国经济已经面临"滞胀"困境,失业率达6.1%,通胀率突破5.8%,国际收支逆差持续扩大。为争取连任,尼克松总统对时任美联储主席伯恩斯施加空前压力。

白宫记录显示,1971年,尼克松与伯恩斯互动次数显著增加,特别是在1971年第三季度和第四季度,两人每季度的正式会晤达17次,远超常规沟通频率。

而这种干预在政策操作层面表现为:当年,美国联邦基金利率从年初的5%骤降至年末的3.5%,M1货币供应量增速达到二战后的峰值8.4%。

在布雷顿森林体系瓦解,全球货币体系剧变的这一年,伯恩斯对政治的妥协为后来的"大通胀"埋下伏笔,直到1979年后保罗·沃尔克大幅加息才得以解决。

伯恩斯也因此背负了历史的骂名。今天的鲍威尔,绝不想重演伯恩斯的命运。

伯恩斯的妥协:政治利益压倒价格稳定

1970年,尼克松亲自提名阿瑟·伯恩斯担任美联储主席。伯恩斯是哥伦比亚大学的经济学家、曾是尼克松竞选时的经济顾问,两人私交甚笃。尼克松对伯恩斯寄予厚望——不是作为货币政策的把关人,而是作为政治战略的“配合者”。

当时,尼克松面临在1972年大选中争取连任的巨大压力,而彼时美国经济尚未完全从1969年衰退中恢复,失业率高企。他急需一波经济增长,哪怕是靠“放水”制造的虚假繁荣。

于是,他不断向伯恩斯施压,希望美联储降息、增发货币,以刺激增长。白宫内部录音记录了尼克松和伯恩斯的多次对话。

1971年10月10日,在椭圆形办公室中,尼克松对伯恩斯说:

相比之下,伯恩斯的继任者保罗·沃尔克,以19%的利率“掐死”通胀,虽制造了剧烈衰退,却成为华尔街、经济史、乃至公众眼中的终结通胀的英雄。

历史证明,美国人可以原谅一位导致经济衰退的美联储主席,但不会原谅一位点燃通胀的主席。

鲍威尔深知这一点,也绝不想做下一个伯恩斯。

风险提示及免责条款

市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

  又一位华尔街分析师下调了特斯拉的目标价,但由于周五美股休市,投资者要等到下周一才能看到市场如何反应。

  当地时间周四晚,巴克莱分析师丹·利维(DanLevy)将特斯拉的目标价从325美元下调至275美元,并维持对该股的持有评级。新的目标价仍比特斯拉周四收盘价(241.38美元)高出约14%。

  特斯拉将于4月22日发布第一季度财报,利维对该公司的业绩表现感到担忧。

  这并不令人感到奇怪,特斯拉此前公布第一季度交付了约33.7万辆汽车,同比下降13%。这是该公司有史以来最严重的季度下滑。更重要的是,这比华尔街的预期少了大约4万辆。

  投资者不确定这一下降有多少是由于该公司CEO埃隆·马斯克的政治活动,这导致了特斯拉工厂的一些抗议活动,以及有多少是由于ModelY车型的转变。特斯拉最近更新了其最受欢迎的车型。

  此外还有关税问题,这可能会提高特斯拉的零部件成本。影响有多大还很难说。

  列维认为,特斯拉很难在2025年增加交付量。该公司在2024年和2023年分别交付了180万辆和180万辆汽车。华尔街今年年初预计,2025年的交付量将达到210万辆左右,但目前这个数字已下调至大约180万辆。

  预期下调对任何股票都不是好事,但列维也认为马斯克有可能把更多时间花在特斯拉而不是美国政府事务上,这在投资者看来是一个积极的因素。

  特斯拉还计划在今年6月推出自动驾驶出租车服务,并在2025年晚些时候开始销售一款新的低价车型。如果特斯拉坚持自己的时间表,这两件事都可能对投资者情绪产生积极影响。

  FactSet的数据显示,在巴克莱下调目标价后,目前华尔街分析师对特斯拉股票的平均目标价约为每股327美元,仍高于一年前的192美元。在投资者开始担心马斯克的政治活动会影响销量之前,特斯拉的平均目标价在2月初曾达到每股381美元的峰值。

  对特斯拉的投资者来说,这是疯狂的几个月。过去一周,该公司股价下跌4.3%,而标普500指数下跌1.5%。这是特斯拉股价在过去13周内第11次下跌。

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