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  来源:国际金融报

  天齐锂业今年首战告捷,但“突围战”还没有结束。

  4月24日,天齐锂业A股(002466.SZ)、H股(9696.HK)齐涨。截至收盘,天齐锂业A股股价收涨4.24%,H股股价收涨2.52%。

  消息面上,天齐锂业于4月23日披露2025年第一季度业绩预告,公司预计2025年第一季度归母净利润为8200万元至1.23亿元,上年同期亏损38.97亿元。

  经历了“伤筋动骨”的2024年,天齐锂业今年首战告捷,但锂价跌破7万元/吨的波动势头显示,这场“突围战”还没有结束。

  一季度扭亏为盈

  锂产品表现和重要联营公司智利化工矿业公司(SQM)业绩是拖累公司去年盈利情况的重要因素,其整体情况在今年一季度有所改善。

  首先是锂产品表现回暖。

  据介绍,尽管一季度锂产品售价同比下降,但得益于公司控股子公司WindfieldHoldingsPtyLtd锂矿定价周期缩短,其全资子公司TalisonLithiumPtyLtd化学级锂精矿定价机制与公司锂化工产品销售定价机制在之前存在的时间周期错配影响已大幅减弱。

  随着国内新购锂精矿陆续入库及库存锂精矿的逐步消化,天齐锂业各生产基地生产成本中耗用的化学级锂精矿成本基本贴近最新采购价格。同时,在自产工厂爬坡及技改的积极影响下,公司一季度锂化合物及衍生品的产销量实现同比增长。

  其次是SQM收益预计实现增长。

  目前,SQM尚未披露其2025年第一季度业绩报告。鉴于SQM税务争议裁决对其净利润的影响已于2024年度确认,同时根据彭博社预测数据,SQM2025年第一季度业绩预计将同比增长,因此天齐锂业当前确认的相应投资收益较上年同期增长。

  天齐锂业此前还在业绩说明会上表示,影响公司去年业绩的主要不利因素已逐步消除。

  不过,SQM的国有化风波尚未解决。

  2024年5月,SQM与智利国家铜业公司签署合伙协议,将组建由政府控制的合资公司,预计从2031年开始,SQM不再拥有其智利阿塔卡马核心锂业务的控制权。

  天齐锂业对此表示,SQM未来收益可能发生变化,可能影响公司在SQM的投资收益及分红,公司作为其第二大股东的权益可能不能得到有效保障。截至目前,天齐锂业方面提出的相关诉讼仍在进展中。

  面对上述不确定性,有投资者曾向天齐锂业提问:公司是否考虑出售所持SQM股权?

  天齐锂业回应称,暂无可披露信息。公司一直密切关注SQM的公开信息,并持续对相关信息进行综合考虑与谨慎评估。

  锂价跌势未减

  与此同时,最影响锂企业绩基本面的锂价,仍在7万元/吨关口附近“试探”。

  4月23日,碳酸锂期货2507合约上涨1.14%至68980元/吨。现货价格方面,电池级碳酸锂平均价跌450元/吨至69950元/吨,工业级碳酸锂下跌450元/吨至68200元/吨,电池级氢氧化锂(粗颗粒)下跌200元/吨至68260元/吨,电池级氢氧化锂(微粉)下跌200元/吨至73405元/吨。

  光大期货指出,目前对后市需求担忧依旧,叠加供应减产力度仍较小,如果没有新的价格利多刺激,碳酸锂价格短期或延续震荡偏弱运行。

  为应对行业周期波动,天齐锂业接下来的战略重点仍是降本增效。

  天齐锂业表示,公司采用垂直一体化经营模式,将格林布什开采加工得到的优质锂精矿直接应用于公司中游锂化工产品的加工当中,在实现原材料100%自给自足、保证资源供给的同时,最大化降低原材料成本,同时结合公司领先的锂化合物生产加工水平,有效实现锂产品利润空间最大化。

  截至目前,天齐锂业澳大利亚泰利森格林布什锂精矿已建成年产能162万吨,并正在推进化学级锂精矿三号加工厂的建设。

  另据Fastmarkets2024年第四季度数据,格林布什现有化学级工厂的开采和加工成本在所有海外硬岩锂矿项目中处于较低水平,其中尾矿再处理厂和化学级锂精矿工厂一期的开采和加工成本处在海外硬岩锂矿项目最低。

  在销售策略方面,天齐锂业计划2025年将采取以“长协为主、期货配合,点单作补”的销售模式,通过三种互补模式结合来平抑市场波动带来的不利影响。

  此外,天齐锂业把目光继续投向产业链上下游,计划通过完善产业链布局,寻找新的价值增长点。

  据悉,公司重庆铜梁生产基地现有600吨/年金属锂产能,对其布局固态电池领域具有重要意义。

  回应二代接棒

  “回首2024年蒋安琪上任董事长以后的表现,我深感满意。”在蒋安琪接班将满一年之际,天齐锂业创始人、董事会名誉主席蒋卫平在近期业绩说明会上表示。

  去年4月末,蒋安琪正式掌舵天齐锂业。伴随公司业绩持续亏损等多重状况,有部分投资者对二代接班能力提出质疑,也有部分观点认为,这更多源于行业周期而非管理问题。

  蒋卫平对此回应称,2024年是行业环境显著变化的一年。尽管面临压力,蒋安琪仍引领公司团队做出了很多扎实且亮眼的工作成果。例如在销售方面,公司长单、大单数量大幅提升至新的量级。

  在他看来,2024年既是困难且充满挑战的一年,更是蒋安琪团队砥砺奋进、磨炼意志的一年。经历2024年以后,公司治理与管理团队也在深入复盘,思索如何熨平周期波动、减轻外部冲击影响,确保公司根基稳固、稳健前行。

  

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