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  作者|StoneJin

  微信公众号|ipozaozhidao

  据IPO早知道消息,绿茶集团有限公司(以下简称“绿茶集团”)日前已通过港交所聆讯并于4月23日披露通过聆讯后的资料集,花旗和招银国际担任联席保荐人。

  2008年,绿茶集团在西子湖畔开设了第一家绿茶餐厅。截至2024年4月14日,绿茶集团已开设489家餐厅,覆盖中国21个省份、四个直辖市、两个自治区以及香港特别行政区。

  根据灼识咨询的报告,2024年在中国内地休闲中式餐厅品牌中,绿茶集团按餐厅数目计排名第三,按收入计排名第四。

  其中,绿茶集团的餐厅总数由截至2022年12月31日的276家以29.8%的复合年增长率增至截至2024年12月31日的465家。

  2024年,绿茶集团开设了120家新餐厅,并计划于2025年、2026年和2027年分别开设150家、200家和213家新餐厅。截至2024年4月14日,绿茶集团有27家餐厅已开始营业,并已就余下21家将于2025年开业的餐厅签订租赁协议,而13家餐厅已开始装修。截至同日,在已签订租赁协议的21家餐厅中,当中14家餐厅的租期已开始,七家餐厅的租期尚未开始。

  2022年至2024年,绿茶集团的客单价分别为62.9元、61.8元和56.2元;同期,翻台率分别为2.81次/日、3.30次/日和3.00次/日。

  财务数据方面。2022年至2024年,绿茶集团的营收分别为23.75亿元、35.89亿元和38.38亿元;同期,绿茶集团的净利润分别为0.17亿元、2.96亿元和3.50亿元。

  绿茶集团在招股书中表示,IPO募集所得资金净额将主要用于扩展餐厅网络;设立中央食材加工设施;升级信息技术系统和相关基础设施;以及用作营运资金及其他一般企业用途。

  我国股权投资时代已经来临。在过去二十几年,房地产曾是黄金投资领域,直到2021年之后才开始回落。在房地产黄金投资时期,是否买房、买了多少套房以及在哪里买房,成为拉开人与人之间财富差距的重要因素。然而,如今许多城市的房地产出现了供过于求的现状,房地产“闭着眼睛买就赚钱”的时代已经一去不复返,投资风险开始显现,部分城市房价大幅下跌,甚至有人出现首付跌没、负资产的现象。未来房地产投资将出现分化,核心地段的好房子仍具稀缺性和增值潜力,而非核心区域的住房则机会不多。因此,大家在进行房地产投资时,要坚持价值投资,分析房子的基本面,判断其是否值得长期投资。

  我国经济在过去四十多年快速发展,各行各业从短缺经济逐步变为产能过剩阶段,许多行业供过于求,行业优胜劣汰加速。特别是特朗普挑起的关税战,使许多竞争力不强或非行业龙头公司受到重创,不得不退出市场,行业集中度进一步向龙头企业集中。在这种情况下,实体投资的成功率降低,竞争愈发激烈。相比之下,通过二级市场买入好公司股权成为较好的投资策略。

  例如,有一位杭州投资者十几年前听了我的分享后,意识到许多行业产能过剩,于是卖掉生意,将几千万资金投入到资本市场的好公司中,成为股东。经过十年左右的价值投资,他实现了财富的跃升,从普通小老板变为多家大公司的股东。而他周围一些朋友因未转变思路,仍苦苦支撑原有生意,不仅亏光了之前积累的财富,生意也难以为继。现在,这些朋友也开始向他学习,通过资本市场转型。因为跨行业转型很难成功,而通过二级市场低成本参与好公司股权投资、成为股东是比较好的转型方式,这也意味着我国股权投资时代已经来临。

  对于普通人来说,趁资本市场的低迷时期,买入被错杀的优质股票或优质基金,等待行情到来,是较好的投资策略,能够实现财富的长期增值。去年我在茅台镇参加普通大会时,遇到一位上海投资者,他十几年前听了我在央视讲的价值投资,当时我以茅台为例,强调做好公司股东才能从长期站稳市场,每年参加股东大会才是真正的股东心态。十几年后,他的资产增长了20倍,从500万增长到一个小目标,晚年生活幸福,儿女孝顺。他认为留给子女最好的不是房子,而是好公司股权。从这两个案例来看,通过做好公司股东、进行股权投资来实现财富增长,是普通人实现阶层跃升的较好方式,而不是追涨杀跌、频繁交易。因为很多投资者亏损的根源就是频繁交易。

  我国好的公司大多已经上市,大家一定要坚持价值投资,不要去买垃圾股,否则可能倾家荡产。要真正学会价值投资,成为好公司股东,与企业共同成长,而不是做“韭菜”。很多人自诩为“新鲜韭菜”或“老韭菜”,其实只要学会价值投资,就不会被割,而是能分享企业成长的红利。

  现在经过三年下跌,中国很多优质股票的估值处于历史底部区域,比美国资产估值低2/3,具备较好的配置机会。政策上对资本市场的支持力度也在不断加大,春节前五部门联合发文吸引中长期资金入市。今年险资投资权益基金的入市比例高达五个百分点,最多可引入1.5万亿增量资金。之前证监会主席吴谦也明确表示,从2025年起新增保费的30%将投入到权益市场。这些都将为资本市场带来增量资金,推动好公司估值回升。而美股因估值泡沫较大,加上特朗普关税战,出现泡沫破裂、大幅下跌,A股和港股则有望从底部回升。我们不能一概而论地说市场整体有没有投资机会,而要寻找被低估的好资产。A股有五千多支公司,良莠不齐,找出其中50家最好的公司去投资,机会更大。现在投资A股的好公司股权,相当于2010年去买房,因为很多好公司估值已跌至历史低位,在低位买入并持有,可获得更多增值。投资是有先知先觉的投资者先进,行情起来后后续资金再跟上,为先进投资者创造机会。所以,在市场低点时果断投资好股票、好基金,等待行情到来是比较好的策略。

  林园先生最近接受媒体采访,坚定相信这一轮牛市。春节前我和他连线时,他表示市场需要像我和杨德龙这样坚定信心的人,买入中国的好资产,等待行情到来,最终发财的还是价值投资者。确实,在市场持续下跌时,好资产的价值才会显现。我们要主动布局被错杀的好股票、好基金,耐心等待市场回升。今年科技股行情已经启动,科技股上涨会带来赚钱效应,带动更多板块回升,如消费白马股、新能源龙头股、红利股等都可能会轮番表现。现在是大家坚定信心的时候,信心比黄金更重要,特别是在市场行情震荡、犹豫时,信心往往决定了成败。无论何时,我们都要投资好公司,不要为了短期上涨去投题材股、概念股,这样才能从根本上把握风险。

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错!

花旗集团策略师呼吁投资者建仓中国房地产股票,因为政策支持和更好的管理实践有望提升该行业的盈利能力。花旗分析师GriffinChan和CindyLi在周三的报告中表示:“我们预计,未来两年将是布局中国房地产板块的好时机,随着资产周转和定价的改善,其股本回报率有望持续提升。”

在花旗发出上述呼吁之前,该行在2月份对房地产板块的情绪有所改善,理由是政策预期和销售企稳的迹象。分析师预计4月底召开的政治局会议将提供“积极的支持”。

最新数据显示,3月份中国房价跌幅再次收窄,当时贸易摩擦尚未加剧。花旗表示,尽管4月是新房销售的淡季,但由于此前积极的房屋库存补充,6月份的前景乐观。

花旗分析师还表示,绿城中国(03900)等公司的高层管理变动,反映了公司希望“通过优化管理效率和结构来加强控制,从而提升股东价值”。

汇丰控股分析师也对该行业的看法变得更加乐观,认为主要开发商的股本回报率将回升,这将带来盈利提升。

包括MichelleKwok在内的汇丰银行分析师表示:“低利率、供应紧张以及信贷正常化相互作用,形成了推动房地产市场结构性复苏的有利条件。”

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