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转自:上观新闻

一季度经济数据出炉,增速超预期。

4月16日,国新办举行新闻发布会介绍2025年一季度国民经济运行情况。初步核算,一季度国内生产总值318758亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长5.4%,比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。

在近期美国对华加征关税的背景下,此次中国经济数据发布引发中外关注。国家统计局副局长盛来运在答外媒记者时提到,从短期来看,美国加征高额关税会给我国经济和外贸带来一定压力,但是改变不了中国经济持续长期向好的大势。中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜力大,“我们有底气、有信心、有能力应对外部挑战,实现既定发展目标”。

超预期从何而来?

一季度GDP增速达到5.4%,超出了市场预期。此前,大部分券商研报认为,一季度GDP增速将在5.3%左右。

超预期的增长从何而来?分产业来看,最主要的还是工业、服务业产值在拉动。一季度,国内第一产业增加值11713亿元,同比增长3.5%;第二产业增加值111903亿元,增长5.9%;第三产业增加值195142亿元,增长5.3%。

第二产业增速最快。其中,规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%,增速较上年全年提升0.7个百分点,提速明显。

细看结构,会发现产业转型升级的特征明显。分门类来看,一季度高技术制造业增加值增长9.7%,较上年全年加快0.8个百分点;装备制造业增加值同比增长10.9%,比上年全年加快3.2个百分点。分产品来看,新能源汽车、3D打印设备、工业机器人产品产量同比分别增长45.4%、44.9%、26.0%。高附加值产业的高增速,拉动整体工业产值提升。

服务业作为占比最大的产业,很大程度决定经济的整体表现。一季度,服务业增加值同比增长5.3%,比上年全年加快0.3个百分点。3月份,服务业商务活动指数为50.3%,服务业业务活动预期指数为57.5%,这两个指标都较前两个月进一步提升,也体现出服务业景气度正在上升,预期逐渐改善。

得益于消费旺季叠加“国补”“市补”等政策利好,上海主要商圈呈现出消费火热场景。这是徐家汇商圈美罗城内一家电子产品线下直营店,顾客在选购手机和平板等产品。

内需加快提振

经济增速超预期,经济发展的“三驾马车”也提速明显。

消费方面,一季度社会消费品零售总额124671亿元,同比增长4.6%,比上年全年加快1.1个百分点,幅度较大。

消费品以旧换新政策对消费的拉动效果明显,例如电动自行车、手机、平板、智能手表这些新扩围的产品销售增速非常高。一季度,限额以上单位通讯器材类商品零售额同比增长26.9%,文化办公用品类增长21.7%,家用电器和音像器材类增长19.3%,家具类增长18.1%,仅这四项就拉动社会消费品零售总额增长1.4个百分点。商务部数据显示,截至4月8日零时,消费者累计购买12大类家电以旧换新产品3571万台,发起汽车以旧换新补贴申请208.5万份,有力地促进了消费的回升。

另外,与消费结构升级相关的服务消费增速也很快。一季度,服务零售额同比增长5%,比商品零售快了0.4个百分点。

投资方面持续保持高增速。一季度,全国固定资产投资103174亿元,同比增长4.2%,比上年全年加快1.0个百分点;扣除房地产开发投资,全国固定资产投资增长8.3%。

“今年以来,地方新增专项债发行提速,带动了到位资金的改善和项目的推进。”盛来运介绍,一季度,新增专项债累计发行量接近1万亿元,固定资产投资本年实际到位资金同比增长3.7%,去年全年下降2.3%。基础设施投资增长5.8%,比上年全年加快1.4个百分点。

出口方面,尽管受到美国加征关税消极预期的影响,一季度中国出口仍然实现大幅增长。一季度,货物进出口总额103013亿元,同比增长1.3%。其中,出口61314亿元,增长6.9%。

上海港外高桥港区五号码头(上海明东集装箱码头)近洋贸易一派繁忙。这是码头1100米岸线上,七八艘船舶一字排开靠得满满当当,通宵达旦进行装卸作业。

出口有韧性

在美国对华大幅加征关税的情况下,进出口数据备受关注。而6.9%的增速展示了中国出口的韧性。

实际上,一月末特朗普就任美国总统后,就开始对部分中国商品提高关税。上海财经大学中国宏观经济研究中心研究员、经济学院副教授赵琳解释,“抢订单”的情况在去年年末,特朗普当选之际,较为明显,一季度出口6.9%的增速更多体现出我国出口的韧性。

盛来运介绍,依托于产业配套体系,我国产品具有较强的国际竞争力。近几年,我国又积极开拓国际市场,构建贸易多元化格局,成效也非常明显。

目前,中国已与世界上150多个国家和地区成为贸易伙伴。另外,中国积极推进与共建“一带一路”国家贸易。今年一季度,对共建“一带一路”国家的出口同比增长7.2%,货物进出口额占全部进出口额比重超过50%,多元化市场格局正在形成,这也意味着中国对某一个国家单一出口市场的依存度在下降。

“2018年,美国第一次对华开打‘贸易战’后,中国就已经在调整出口市场布局,通过发展‘一带一路’等多元化市场,逐渐把对美出口额占总出口额比例,从2018年的19.2%,降至2024年的14.7%。”赵琳说。

同时,针对潜在的外部变化,自去年开始,中央经济工作会议就已经在做提前部署,比如将扩内需列为2025年中国经济发展的首要任务,再比如推出更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。盛来运表示,过去五年,三大需求中内需对经济增长的平均贡献率已超过80%。

原标题:《2025年一季度中国经济交出超预期成绩单,基础稳、亮点多、韧性强、潜力大》

栏目主编:孟群舒

来源:作者:解放日报吴丹璐

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