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转自:上观新闻

近期在美国“对等关税”事件冲击下,市场对美联储降息预期上升,但美债反而出现了一波“抛售潮”。

4月7日至4月11日,长端美债价格接连下跌。以10年期美债为例,10年期美债收益率4月4日一度下行至3.858%,但随后10年期美债收益率持续上行,并在4月11日上行至4.588%。30年期美债收益率也从4.31%的水平上行至5%以上。

不过,随着近期美股、美元指数逐渐企稳,美债市场也企稳反弹。10年期、30年期美债收益率4月14日均出现明显下行。

美债“抛售潮”暂歇

近期,美债市场遭遇惨烈抛售,令华尔街悲观情绪蔓延。

号称“全球资产定价之锚”的10年期美债收益率自3.858%持续上行至超过4.5%,并在4月11日最高达到4.588%。4月7日至4月11日,10年期美债收益率创下了多年来的最大单周涨幅。

30年期美债收益率也出现剧烈波动。4月4日,30年期美债收益率一度下行至4.31%,随后30年期美债收益率持续上行,并在4月9日突破5%,最高达到5.018%。

在美债收益率上行的情况下,美国国债期货价格下跌明显。4月7日至4月11日,10年期美国国债期货价格下跌近3%。

不过,随着近期美股、美元指数逐渐企稳,美债市场也企稳反弹。10年期美债收益率目前已下行至4.366%,30年期美债收益率下行至4.793%。

对于近期美债“抛售潮”,浙商国际认为,本轮美债下跌主要是经济衰退预期升温、信用债利差小幅走阔、流动性边际收紧导致基差交易收益率/规模收敛的结果,并非广义美元流动性出了问题或美债面临全面的抛售压力。

国金证券也指出,近期,美国“对等关税”政策引发全球资产剧烈波动,投资者甚至开始担忧税收政策上的不确定性扩大至美债市场。由此引发投资者风险偏好骤然降低并迅速撤出风险敞口较大的资产,导致市场交易流动性迅速恶化。在此情景下,美国国债市场的深度出现明显下降,交易价差显著扩大,市场流动性恶化,无法有效吸纳短时间内集中涌现的大规模抛售压力,其中包括杠杆基差交易平仓带来的巨大抛压。这种流动性条件的急剧恶化进一步放大了美债收益率的波动幅度,短期内加剧了美债市场的抛压,并形成了类似“踩踏”的市场情绪和行为,收益率因此在短期内迅速飙升。

美债避险属性正面临挑战

在经济不稳定、地缘政治紧张或市场动荡时期,黄金和美债往往被视为避险资产。但从近期相关资产表现来看,本应作为“避风港”的美国国债在不确定性上升之际遭遇抛售,美债正“失去其避险属性”。

近期黄金价格持续攀升并多次创出历史新高,日元、瑞郎等传统避险货币也表现强劲,而美债遭遇“抛售潮”,也印证了市场对避险资产偏好的结构性转变。

国金证券认为,美债市场大幅波动的背后,更深层的潜在风险来自对美元信用的担忧。美国财政赤字持续扩大、债务水平屡创新高,均影响投资者对美国主权信用的长期信心和美债的避险功能。特朗普政府政策不确定性或成为开启这一定价的“导火索”,使得资金快速从长期美债这一传统避险资产撤出,转而流入其他更具确定性和稳健性的资产。

当前美债收益率大幅上行,更多反映了市场对美国政策不确定性与流动性恶化的担忧。中金公司研究指出,下一个潜在的问题可能来自于美债和美国财政,尽管今年一季度采取了不少节省支出的措施,但美国的财政赤字仍然超过了去年同期。由于大部分的关税被延迟,且减税和债务上限等计划可能进一步加剧财政负担,若没有美联储的干预,美债或继续面临抛售压力。如果现状维持,那么美元仍然会面临压力,直到市场的忧虑缓解。

原标题:《美债“抛售潮”暂歇,什么信号?》

栏目主编:顾万全文字编辑:董思韵题图来源:上观题图图片编辑:雍凯

来源:作者:证券时报

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