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  文丨水岸

  4月24日,股市“阴转多云”,沪指微涨,一些人气主线的头部公司继续领涨,像人形机器人,这个之前一直引领市场的高人气赛道又回来了。

  人形机器人是最近回补4月7日跳空缺口且创出新高个股最多的主线之一,这个板块在当前重启,既有外在因素催化,也有内在的超跌修复驱动。在多重因素刺激下,关键细分产业链环节以及相关个股(见文内表1)或正成为资金新一轮的重点加仓目标。

  人形机器人强者回归

  4月中旬以来的市场一直保持稳中向好趋势,“指数搭台,题材唱戏”的现象一直反复出现。在这种市场环境下,很多人气主线得以回归,如人形机器人。那么,作为2024年四季度、2025年一季度的市场高人气板块,人形机器人新一轮主升浪机会是否又要来了?下面从市场等多个角度来展开聊一聊。

  先来看市场,4月23日,人形机器人成为市场最强主线,当天,人形机器人以及核心产业链中的减速器均上涨了5%,人形机器人带动的PEEK材料上涨超过4%。上述3个板块在当天位列200多个概念板块涨幅榜前三。4月24日,PEEK材料继续大涨,盘中最高涨幅接近5%。

  进一步拉长周期来看,人形机器人已经走出阶段性的反弹趋势,如4月9日~4月23日的11个交易日中已经累计上涨了超过16%。这里想着重提示一下,其实在4月上旬市场以及人形机器人加速调整过后,笔者即重点提及人形机器人等主线将迎来超跌反弹机会(感兴趣的读者朋友可见4月10日的《今天,重大拐点出现了》)。

  另外,对于人形机器人主线节奏与拐点的分析预判,本栏目特约嘉宾边惠宗也进行了多次提示,比如对于机会的把握,边惠宗在人形机器人还未过度上涨之前即进行了持续重点跟踪。比如2024年2月表示,多模态和AGI的迭代,将给2025年的人形机器人产业链带来很大的成长预期;2025年1月表示,机器人短期催化比较密集,量产仍需打通降本关键一环,国产零部件厂商具备成本优势,有望充分受益。

  不过,在经过一轮较长周期且较大幅度的上涨后,比如今年3月上中旬,在人形机器人维持高热度、高位时,边惠宗则重点提示了压力与风险,其多次分析表示,人形机器人赛道的成交已经过于拥挤,要警惕分化的压力与调整的风险。

  按照边惠宗当时的分析逻辑,该板块后市的重启机会需要重点关注的要素之一就是空间的调整幅度,即一些龙头标的需要满足“腰斩”的条件。现在来看,在一些极端外部因素扰动下,边惠宗谈及的“空间”因素基本得到满足,反弹拐点也得到了印证。那么,人形机器人的新一轮主升浪机会又要开启了吗?

  在近日的《边学边做》栏目中,边惠宗再度多次谈及人形机器人的机会,4月23日,其对当前热门的人形机器人核心产业链以及头部公司进行了重点分析,提及的其中一只标的4月24日斩获了近20%的涨幅。想了解更多边惠宗有关人形机器人产业链的深度分析内容,读者朋友可以扫描或长按识别下方二维码,“加入学习”即可免费收看。

  人形机器人产业链机会

  人形机器人的反弹,外在刺激因素是催化,内在技术性超跌修复是驱动力。上文聊到了技术因素,这里再展开说一下外部催化因素。

  当下,人形机器人有多个事件性的刺激因素,如马拉松(4月19日亦庄)、运动会(4月24日无锡首届具身智能机器人运动会)、车展(人形机器人现身)等,反映到公司或机器人层面,涉及天工、小鹏人形机器人IRON、宇树等。这里不再详细展开。通过最近的人形机器人比赛等,更直观地反映了机器人产业发展需要重点解决的技术短板。 

  边惠宗在《边学边做》中研究分析认为,在技术短板下,电机、传动机构(丝杠、减速器)、轻量化材料、散热等多个领域环节将更加清晰明确。事实上,结合二级市场来看,资金也均在围绕上述几个细分赛道展开加码布局。

  下面对边惠宗提及的上述部分细分产业链进行展开分析。近期连续大涨的PEEK材料(聚醚醚酮)即是人形机器人轻量化材料的重要分支,它能够减轻重量、提升灵活性与负载能力,可用于传感器、减速器、结构件等多个领域。电机与传动机构是人形机器人的重要关键部件,无论从效能以及成本构成等角度来看都是核心产业链环节。

  这里,笔者对上述核心产业链有加码布局的公司进行了深度梳理,并结合股价反弹力度进行了细分筛选,其中,多数公司均确立了放量“V形反转”趋势,一些公司更是创出了新高。具体名单可见(表1;长按识别或扫描二维码,“加入学习”即可免费获取完整名单)。

  融资盘逆向增仓

  人形机器人整体反弹背后,杠杆资金——融资盘成为重要的增仓主力之一。统计140余只为两融标的的概念股,4月9日这轮反弹行情以来,共获融资盘净买入近10亿元,五成标的在4月9日获得净买入。

  从个股来看,近50只获得超过千万元买入,16只获净买入超过5000万元,另外多家公司则获得一个“小目标”以上的买入。其中,胜宏科技获得净买入金额最高,达到了13亿元。从单日成交来看,4月11日、4月14日,获净买入金额均超过了5亿元。4月9日以来,胜宏科技股价连续止跌反弹,至今累计上涨超20%,融资盘的加码动作多为逆向布局。

  融资盘将胜宏科技列为重点增仓目标,或与多个因素有关。胜宏科技主营业务为新型电子器件高精密度线路板(PCB),公司产品可应用于汽车智驾、无人驾驶、无人机、人形机器人、低空飞行器等新兴领域,公司已与部分前述领域的国内外头部企业建立了合作关系。据其表示,公司应用于人形机器人领域的PCB产品已实现小批量出货。

  另外,胜宏科技也在近日交出了一份翻倍增长的业绩“成绩单”。据胜宏科技4月21日披露的2025年一季报表示,公司实现净利润9.21亿元,同比增长339.22%。

  另外,光启技术、国民技术、汉威科技、万马股份、拓斯达等也在4月9日以来获得融资盘大笔增仓(见表2)。

  欧洲央行管理委员会成员OlliRehn表示,央行很可能需要进一步下调利率,且不应排除更大幅度降息的可能性。

OlliRehn

  尽管地缘政治和贸易带来的“普遍不确定性”要求官员们对下一步行动保持开放态度,但Rehn警告称,近期融资条件已趋紧,经济增长面临的风险也开始显现。

  “保持充分的政策灵活性至关重要,这意味着我们不应因假设的中性利率而设定特定门槛,也不应事先排除某种幅度的降息可能性,”他说道。“当前正是实施灵活且积极的货币政策的时候。”

  当被问及是否考虑采取更大规模的降息行动时,欧洲央行首席经济学家PhilipLane表示:“从理论上讲,我们不会对任何利率路径做出预先承诺”,并称“没有理由说我们总是会采取默认的25个基点的调整”。不过,他也强调这一看法是理论层面的。

  “如果到6月份,通胀率预计在中期内将降至我们2%的通胀目标以下,那么正确的反应是进一步降息,”Rehn在华盛顿接受采访时表示。

  这位芬兰央行行长在国际货币基金组织春季会议期间发表讲话时称,即使情况并非如此,也没有太多理由暂停降息。

  “我们还需关注经济增长前景和金融状况,”Rehn表示。欧洲央行3月经济预测中识别的风险“已基本显现”。

  关于是否考虑实施更大规模的50个基点降息,Rehn表示:“这取决于中期通胀前景,以及经济增长前景将恶化或是改善的程度。”

4月24日,OEXN表示,近期原油市场受到了OPEC+内部分歧和关税政策变化的双重冲击,导致市场情绪波动加剧,原油价格下跌。尽管美国股市因关税减免的预期而上涨,但原油市场却因需求不确定性和地缘政治波动而受到抑制。

  OEXN进一步认为,OPEC+内部的紧张局势和油价下跌促使该组织考虑加速增产。尽管沙特阿拉伯等国提出了新的补偿计划以抵消过度生产,但哈萨克斯坦却无视配额,优先考虑本国产量。这一行为加剧了市场对OPEC+减产协议执行的担忧,同时也对原油市场的稳定构成了威胁。

  此外,OEXN还提到,市场对OPEC+最新增产计划的反应相对冷淡。尽管沙特阿拉伯等国计划从2025年4月起至2026年6月进一步削减产量,但哈萨克斯坦却表示将优先考虑国家利益,而不是遵循OPEC+的配额。这种内部的不一致性可能会削弱OPEC+对市场的影响力,并导致原油价格的进一步波动。

  OEXN总结认为,尽管OPEC+试图通过调整产量来稳定市场,但内部的分歧和外部的关税政策变化使得原油市场的前景仍然充满不确定性。投资者在当前市场环境下需要密切关注OPEC+的政策动态以及国际贸易关系的变化,以便更好地应对市场的波动。

4月24日,HTFX外汇表示,太空旅游作为一种新兴的高端旅游形式,引发了关于其环境影响和可持续性的广泛讨论。一方面,太空旅游被批评为碳排放极高的活动,其对环境的影响远超传统旅游形式;另一方面,太空旅游的支持者认为,它能够为科学探索和技术创新提供资金支持,推动太空技术的发展。

  HTFX外汇进一步认为,太空旅游的环境成本确实令人担忧。据2022年世界不平等报告,一次几分钟的太空飞行所产生的碳排放量,超过10亿人一生的碳排放量。这种高碳排放的活动在当前全球气候变化的背景下显得尤为突出。然而,太空旅游的支持者认为,太空旅游的发展可以降低太空探索的成本,为科学研究和技术创新提供资金支持,从而推动太空经济的发展。

  此外,HTFX外汇还提到,太空旅游的发展可能会带动相关产业的兴起,如太空港口、太空船制造、生命支持系统和培训项目等,从而促进全球经济的增长。然而,这种发展是否能够弥补其对环境的短期破坏,仍然是一个值得探讨的问题。

  HTFX外汇总结认为,太空旅游的未来发展需要在创新和环境可持续性之间找到平衡。尽管太空旅游可能带来一些长期的经济和技术利益,但其短期的环境成本也不容忽视。投资者和政策制定者需要综合考虑这些因素,以确保太空旅游的发展能够符合全球可持续发展的目标。

  HTFXLimited成立于2021年,是一家专注于国际金融衍生品及相关服务的券商公司,为客户和合作伙伴通过在线交易平台提供实时交易各种金融衍生品,致力于营造一个安全的金融业交易环境。

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