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  ■ 刘 琪

  海棠铺绣,春日正盛。中国人民银行日前公布的3月份的金融数据,也透出了浓浓暖意。

  3月份,人民币贷款增加约3.64万亿元,同比多增0.55万亿元。其中,企业贷款新增28400亿元,同比多增5000亿元;住户贷款增加9853亿元,同比多增447亿元。这些跃动的数字,是微观主体活力上升的生动写照,更是中国经济运行态势向好的有力注脚。

  企业贷款的强势表现是3月份金融数据的一大亮点。尤其是短期贷款增加1.44万亿元,同比增长4600亿元,成为企业贷款的主要支撑项,这表明企业的生产经营活动正在加快恢复,融资需求也在稳步回升。尽管企业中长期贷款同比少增200亿元,但考虑到地方债务置换等因素的影响,企业信贷的整体表现依然强劲。

  与此同时,居民贷款的回暖同样令人瞩目。住户中长期贷款增加5047亿元,同比多增531亿元,与重点房地产市场的“小阳春”形成呼应。3月份,30个重点城市二手房成交面积整体同比增长20%以上,成交回暖带动个人住房贷款投放增多。提前还款的情况在降低存量房贷利率后有较大缓解,也对居民中长期贷款增长产生了积极影响。此外,在大力提振消费和强化金融支持下,消费贷款增势向好,进一步支撑了居民贷款的增长。

  信贷向好的背后,离不开政策的春风化雨。去年四季度以来,一系列宏观政策发力,有效扭转社会预期。今年开年,积极的财政政策靠前发力,政府债券发行和财政支出节奏明显加快,重大项目建设也在加速落地。适度宽松的货币政策持续发力,3月份企业新发放贷款(本外币)加权平均利率约为3.3%,个人住房新发放贷款(本外币)加权平均利率约为3.1%,均处于较低水平。多项宏观政策协同发力,共同推动了信贷需求的回升。

  3月末M1增速上行进一步表明了市场信心在逐步增强,经济内生动力在不断积聚。尽管全球经济环境仍存在不确定性,但我国经济的韧性和潜力不容低估。最新公布的一季度经济数据显示,中国国内生产总值达318758亿元,同比增长5.4%。这一速度在全球主要经济体中名列前茅,充分彰显了中国经济的强大韧性与底气。

  我国超大规模内需市场回旋余地大且富有活力,完整的产业链和强大的制造业基础使我国在全球供应链中占据关键地位,持续的科技创新和产业升级也为经济注入源源不绝的增长动力。同时,我国宏观政策工具箱储备充足,能够有效应对外部环境的不确定性变化,为经济稳定增长提供有力保障。

  眼下,春季里的最后一个节气谷雨将至。谷雨取自“雨生百谷”之意,生动概括了雨水对农作物生长的关键作用。雨水之于农作物,也恰如金融活水之于实体经济。可以预见的是,随着各项政策进一步落地显效,金融活水将更好润泽实体经济发展。我们也有理由相信,未来中国经济的内生动力还将不断增强,并为世界经济增长注入更多中国动能。

  2024年9月,证监会发布《关于深化上市公司并购重组市场改革的意见》(简称“并购六条”),随后,北京、上海、广东、四川等多地相继出台了支持企业并购的相关文件或政策举措。其中,上海、深圳、安徽等地更是单独发文支持企业并购重组。在中央与地方政策的共振下,并购重组正处在政策红利期和窗口期。

  据Wind数据统计,2025年一季度,中国并购市场(包含中国企业跨境并购)共披露1647起并购事件,同比上升0.98%;交易规模约7779亿元,同比上升约115.30%,市场活跃度显著提升。从各参与方的并购目的分布来看,横向整合类的并购事件以456亿元规模占到总体交易规模的6.78%,战略合作和资产调整分别以439亿元和116亿元占到总体交易规模的6.52%和1.73%。

  不过,澎湃新闻注意到,相较于并购交易规模,并购基金参与度并不高。研究数据显示,今年一季度共计66支私募基金以并购的方式成功退出,回笼金额虽然同比有增长,但规模仅有262.77亿元。

  近日,在盐城产融生态对接会上,多位业内人士,围绕着并购基金的“出路”进行了探讨。国新证券并购重组部负责人彭德强建议,并购基金围绕上市公司进行突破。可以地方产业龙头上市公司为核心,联合其大股东、社会资本及政府资本共同设立并购基金,围绕该上市公司产业链上下游实施纵向整合与横向拓展进行布局,另外,并购基金通过主动收购上市公司构建退出通道。

  “并购六条明确允许私募基金以产业整合为目的收购上市公司,这其实为下一步并购基金的发展提供了非常好的思路。如果并购基金旗下有1~2个上市公司平台,就可以为下一步退出打下基础。”彭德强说道。

  并购基金出资人多数以地方政府为主,以招引为契机进行收购交易。中泰资本董事总经理章程从机制方面给出了诸多建议,比如尽量减少自守正出奇的战略,更多是在收购的前提下纲举目张,以地方产业政策为前提,寻找当地的链主企业。“如果收购主体是以国企为背景的并购基金,还是希望给管理层多一些激励。”

  章程还强调,未来在关键时间点上,还要对并购逻辑出发点的要素驱动测试。比如,不同时间点上基本面有没有发生变化,收购标的的增长逻辑是否发生了变化。“我们经手的多个案例,上市公司对商誉给予了非常高的关注度。商誉摊销的会计处理方法上,中国是不再进行商誉摊销,而是每年进行减值测试。”“只要估值逻辑中间发生变化,那么上市公司就要对商誉值进行调整。这部分变动会成为营业外支出,会对当期利润产生影响。”

  那么,政府参与的并购基金,着力点有哪些?

  “政府引导型的并购基金应该重点聚焦在面临产业升级的传统产业上。他们向战略性新兴产业转型过程中,有内在的整合逻辑。”彭德强表示,存量市场机会更大。

  中平资本创始合伙人黄正红总也认为,产业转型升级是并购重组永恒的主题,产业整合需求迫切、强链补链行业也存在机会。

  毅达资本合伙人刘峰总结了三点,即“全、新、强”。全,是指全产业链,上下游打通;新,则是指传统产业转型新兴;强是指提升公司质量,做大做强。刘峰以江苏盐城举例称,盐城市新能源产业比较优势明显,可以围绕新能源细分产业,通过并购重组盘活存量,将新能源产业做大做强。

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