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 三沙市(南沙区、西沙区)





枣庄市(山亭区、滕州市、薛城区、台儿庄区、峄城区、市中区)









黄冈市(英山县、黄州区、蕲春县、红安县、武穴市、罗田县、黄梅县、团风县、浠水县、麻城市)









衢州市(开化县、龙游县、江山市、常山县、衢江区、柯城区)  和田地区(和田市、墨玉县、策勒县、民丰县、皮山县、于田县、和田县、洛浦县)









哈尔滨市(依兰县、阿城区、尚志市、双城区、木兰县、香坊区、巴彦县、道外区、呼兰区、道里区、宾县、五常市、方正县、松北区、南岗区、平房区、延寿县、通河县)









武威市(古浪县、天祝藏族自治县、民勤县、凉州区)









乌鲁木齐市(水磨沟区、新市区、乌鲁木齐县、头屯河区、达坂城区、沙依巴克区、天山区、米东区)海南藏族自治州(兴海县、同德县、贵德县、共和县、贵南县)









清远市(连山壮族瑶族自治县、清城区、英德市、连州市、清新区、阳山县、佛冈县、连南瑶族自治县)  四平市(伊通满族自治县、梨树县、铁西区、铁东区、双辽市)









晋中市(介休市、灵石县、榆次区、寿阳县、太谷区、昔阳县、平遥县、左权县、和顺县、榆社县、祁县)









遂宁市(安居区、大英县、船山区、射洪市、蓬溪县)









大兴安岭地区(呼玛县、漠河市、塔河县)宁德市(周宁县、蕉城区、福安市、柘荣县、霞浦县、屏南县、寿宁县、福鼎市、古田县)









玉林市(兴业县、陆川县、北流市、福绵区、容县、博白县、玉州区)









泰州市(靖江市、姜堰区、兴化市、海陵区、泰兴市、高港区)









铁岭市(开原市、清河区、铁岭县、银州区、西丰县、昌图县、调兵山市)









临夏回族自治州(临夏市、和政县、临夏县、东乡族自治县、康乐县、广河县、积石山保安族东乡族撒拉族自治县、永靖县)









通辽市(开鲁县、奈曼旗、库伦旗、霍林郭勒市、科尔沁左翼后旗、科尔沁区、扎鲁特旗、科尔沁左翼中旗)









鸡西市(鸡冠区、城子河区、恒山区、密山市、鸡东县、滴道区、梨树区、麻山区、虎林市)

  市场回顾与分析

  一级市场回顾

  上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为4350亿、2006亿和1406亿,净融资额为3800亿、1227亿和1406亿。金融债(不含政金债)共计发行规模302亿,净融资额-224亿。非金信用债共计发行规模4082亿,净融资额920亿。暂无可转债新券发行。

  二级市场回顾

  上周债市窄幅震荡,曲线整体走平。主要影响因素包括:资金面、经济金融数据、美国政策波动等。

  流动性跟踪

  上周央行净投放流动性,对冲MLF到期和税期,资金面表现均衡。最终R001和R007分别较前周上行3.8BP和上行1BP。

  政策与基本面

  3月经济金融数据表现超预期,但市场对二季度后经济走势仍有担忧。高频数据来看:高频生产指标分化中上游强下游弱,房地产、出口景气度下行,油价回升、金价上涨。

  海外市场

  美与多国贸易谈判开始,海外市场波动率有所回落。10年期美债收盘在4.34%,较前周下行14BP。

  权益市场

  上周上证指数周一至周四连阳,国家队托底意图明显,相比之下,创业板表现稍弱。具体看,上周万得全A上涨0.39%,上证50上涨1.45%,沪深300上涨0.59%,创业板指下跌0.64%。上周A股成交量大幅缩量,日均成交额1.11万亿,周度日均成交量大幅减少5023亿。截至2025年4月17日,全A融资余额18023.00亿,较4月10日减少85.99亿元。

  债市策略展望

  债市再度进入观察震荡期,等待海内外事件的进一步发酵。当前宏观面较为复杂,市场缺乏明确方向。二季度将持续跟踪两件重点事项,一是中美关税谈判的后续进展,随着双方关税上升至100%以上,关税进一步加码已无实际意义,市场更关心中美潜在的协商进程,中美双方已阶段性释放谈判善意;二是,国内政策潜在加码的力度和方向,4月政治局会议作为季初讨论经济的会议,将成为市场观察年中政策基调的重要窗口,相比于往年的货币先行财政后至,本次财政可能更为积极,而货币的宽松更多是配合和被动的。在市场等待期间,市场偏好趋于摇摆,债市或维持震荡运行。考虑到二季度资金松紧情况一般好于一季度,对于负债端稳定的机构可关注5Y及以上长久期信用债的配置机会,当前长久期信用利差仍有较高压缩空间,信用债行情有望从中短久期轮动到长久期。转债方面,短期消息面频繁出现,给市场带来扰动。在进入到基本面定价阶段之前,市场阶段性的定价可能集中在关税博弈的拉扯摇摆、国内货币和内需政策的期待上,关注政策演绎。

  风险提示:本材料的信息均来源于已公开的资料,对信息的准确性、完整性或可靠性不作任何保证。本材料中的观点、分析仅代表公司研究团队观点,在任何情况下本文中的信息或表达的意见并不构成实际投资结果,也不构成任何对投资人的投资建议和担保。任何媒体、网站、个人未经本公司授权不得转载。

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