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难言之欲 by 蓝淋-令人深思的多面性与复杂性。
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难言之欲 by 蓝淋-令人深思的多面性与复杂性。

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  刚刚披露完毕的基金一季报透露出“国家队”增持轨迹。

  公募基金一季报陆续披露。券商中国记者翻阅发现,多只“巨无霸”级别的宽基ETF在一季度获“国家队”大手笔增持,其中仅华夏沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、易方达沪深300ETF等4只产品就被中央汇金公司增持合计超过2000亿元。

  以中央汇金公司为代表的政策性资金是市场重要的维稳力量,既给市场带来了增量资金,也有助于提振资本市场的信心。

  “国家队”一季度买入ETF轨迹曝光

  基金一季报陆续披露完毕,“国家队”偏好的多只宽基ETF披露了大资金持有动向。

  华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF是国内规模最大的ETF,最新规模超过3000亿元。该ETF2025年一季报显示,今年一季度,“机构2”增持该ETF3.63亿份。

  今年初“机构2”持有该ETF266.21亿份,被认为是“国家队”的中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司,因为该ETF2024年年报显示中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司2024年底持有该ETF266.21亿份。

  基金一季报之所以未直接透露“机构2”的名称,是因为基金报告披露规则约定导致。ETF仅在半年报和年报中披露持有人以及相应持有份额。ETF虽然不会在基金季报中披露持有人信息,但是会在季报中披露单一投资者持有基金份额比例达到或超过20%的情况,这就意味着若有机构投资者的大额申购行为导致其持有比例超过20%,其报告期内的申购情况同样会被披露。

  除了华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF,华夏沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、易方达沪深300ETF的一季报也透露出“国家队”的买入轨迹。

  在基金一季报中披露“机构增持ETF明细”的还有华夏沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、易方达沪深300ETF,分别增持对应的ETF各1.57亿份、1.17亿份和5.02亿份。通过与ETF2024年年末的持有人进行对比,上述增持行为均是“国家队”中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司所为。

  “国家队”持仓ETF已超万亿元

  2023年开始,股票ETF逐渐成为“国家队”入市的重要通道。

  2023年10月23日,中央汇金公司公告称,当日买入ETF,并将在未来继续增持。这是中央汇金公司较为罕见地公开喊话增持ETF。截至2023年底,中央汇金公司主要持有沪深300ETF、上证50ETF、上证180ETF、中证500ETF等。

  国新投资则是在2023年12月宣布增持的“国家队选手”。数据显示,2023年年底,国新投资持有5只ETF产品,如南方中证国新央企科技、博时央企创新驱动ETF、博时中证国新央企现代能源ETF等。

  2024年2月6日,中央汇金公司再次公告表示,扩大ETF增持范围,持续加大增持力度、扩大增持规模,坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。

  2024年以来,中央汇金公司开始增持多种类型的ETF,持仓范围进一步扩大,涵盖中证1000ETF、创业板ETF、科创板ETF等。

  截至2024年底,中央汇金公司持有ETF金额合计突破万亿元。

  今年4月,全球资本市场动荡,官方发出积极信号,中央汇金公司明确是资本市场上的“国家队”,发挥着类“平准基金”作用。4月7日至8日凌晨,中央汇金公司、中国诚通、中国国新等多家中央企业发布公告称近期已增持ETF,坚决维护资本市场平稳运行,并表示坚决当好长期资本、耐心资本、战略资本,释放稳市强信号。央行同步宣布,将通过再贷款向中央汇金公司提供充足资金支持,形成“政策工具—资金渠道—市场操作”的闭环。

  “中国版平准基金”以大手笔真金白银维护资本市场稳定,不断加码,为A股市场提供增量资金。

  4月7日ETF数据显示,当日股票ETF净买入量合计达到689.96亿元。4月8日数据显示,ETF获资金净流入金额合计达到1117.8亿元,创出历史新高。其中,股票ETF获资金净流入1062.75亿元,相比4月7日净流入的689.96亿元有大幅增加,其中大部分增量资金被认为是“国家队”资金,为A股市场的企稳提供了重要资金支撑。

  4月7日以来,截至4月21日,股票ETF净申购额合计达到超过2100亿元。其中,华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF净申购额为445.89亿元,华夏沪深300ETF净申购额为354.19亿元,易方达沪深300ETF净申购额为324.36亿元。此外,嘉实沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF、南方中证500ETF、南方中证1000ETF均获净申购超百亿元。

  基金经理看好后市

  “国家队”在市场震荡之际,能够迅速主动作为,一定程度遏制A股悲观情绪的蔓延及流动性风险的发生。

  近期,市场情绪逐渐转暖,上证指数一度站上3300点。

  基金经理也在基金一季报中看好A股投资机会。

  展望二季度,华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF基金经理柳军表示,春季行情结束后,市场或将重新聚焦基本面及政策延续性方面。虽然面临扰动,但从潜在增量政策的储备或者是心理预期准备,尤其是以DeepSeek为代表的科技突破对于信心的强化,A股结构性机会或仍将持续并进一步增多,宽基指数配置价值凸现。

  中欧基金基金经理蓝小康表示,关税仍将带来市场的不确定性,但是随着中国政策的前置,关税风险应能被对冲。因此从全年来看,继续看好股市。本次关税引发市场调整后,中美政策将共振上行,商品类、低估值类资产将是最重要的方向,在贵金属的逻辑上,在本次短期波动后,投资者可以去观察交易去美元化的逻辑是否出现。

 

  热点品种分析

  一、商品指数

4月22日,MonetaMarkets亿汇表示,美国与沙特之间关于核能协议的谈判可能会对中东地区的能源格局产生重大影响。这一谈判不仅可能逆转沙特向认为倾斜的趋势,还可能削弱北京的“一带一路”倡议及其在中东日益增长的影响力。MonetaMarkets亿汇认为,此举标志着美国试图通过深化能源、基础设施和核能合作,重新确立其在该地区的主导地位。

  MonetaMarkets亿汇进一步分析,美国与沙特的核协议将对伊朗构成巨大压力,迫使其尽快与美国达成核能计划协议。此外,如果双方成功地将德黑兰和利雅得纳入华盛顿的影响范围,中东地区可能会在未来几十年内失去影响,从而有效地结束其多代全球权力争夺项目“一带一路”倡议(BRI)。

  MonetaMarkets亿汇还提到,美国与沙特的谈判规模和范围与沙特与认为的谈判相似,因此可以被视为华盛顿对北京的直接替代方案。能源部正在努力达成一项美沙核能协议,作为两国在多个能源领域谈判的一部分。这些领域包括石油和天然气的深度和广泛合作、石化、碳管理、氢技术、电力、可再生能源和核能。它们还包括支持这些发展的新协议和融资以支持其快速推广。

  MonetaMarkets亿汇总结认为,尽管美国公司在这种情况下可能受损,但对中东和北非地区可能是有利的。这使得他们能够提供更短的交货时间来交付设备和服务,帮助避免可能导致非生产时间和成本超支的延误,这对高价值项目和钻探活动至关重要。

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