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  来源:华尔街见闻

  野村分析指出,由于贸易战带来的全球不确定性和美国需求疲软,印度IT服务业的盈利预估可能会被下调,对Nifty指数整体盈利预期构成下行风险。花旗还表示,NiftyIT指数目前交易于22倍以上的一年期远期收益,高于Nifty指数整体20倍的水平,也使盈利前景承压。

  尽管印度科技股近日来强劲反弹,但这可能是关税冲击下的“虚假繁荣”。

  据彭博报道,贸易战正在增加印度软件服务出口商的盈利下调风险。这些公司作为印度经济的晴雨表,30%-60%的销售依赖美国市场,而投资者仍在推高这些公司股价,似乎忽视了潜在风险。

  最新季度的财报显示,印度四大IT出口商的业绩表现参差不齐,并且普遍低于分析师预期。

  亚洲最大的软件出口商TataConsultancyServices表示,他们观察到决策制定出现延误,自由支配预算也受到更多审查;Wipro也表示,由于特朗普的关税政策加剧了对美国经济衰退的担忧,客户在支出方面变得谨慎。

  盈利前景黯淡,估值溢价难以支撑

  据悉,印度科技板块在NSENifty50指数中占11%权重,仅次于金融板块,包括TCS、Infosys和HCLTechnologies等巨头。

  而据野村策略师SaionMukherjee分析,由于全球不确定性和美国需求疲软,IT服务业的盈利预估可能会被下调。野村警告称,这对Nifty指数整体盈利预期构成下行风险。

  此外,摩根士丹利本月早些时候也将本财年基准BSESensex指数的盈利增长预测下调了近六个百分点至13%,理由是全球担忧。

  相关数据显示,一季度财报季以来,NSENiftyIT指数的12个月远期每股收益预估已经下降了1%。

  野村、大摩和IIFLSecurities的策略师们还在近几周警告称,其他行业(包括大宗商品、制药和金融服务业)也面临盈利下调的风险。

  AmbitInvestmentAdvisors的董事总经理DhirajAgarwal警告称:

  另一重风险在于估值溢价。

  花旗指出,NiftyIT指数目前交易于22倍以上的一年期远期收益,而更广泛的Nifty指数的倍数接近20倍。该行认为,考虑到风险,这种估值溢价很难证明其合理性。

  一、仍未聘请到审计机构

  4月22日晚间,紫天科技(维权)公告,公司原定于4月23日披露公司2024年年度报告以及2025年第一季度报告。截至公告日,因公司仍未聘请年审会计师,预计无法在法定期限(2025年4月30日)披露2024年年度报告及2025年第一季度报告。

  距离规定的年报披露之日已所剩不多,紫天科技原聘请北京亚泰国际会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙)为2024年度审计机构。但该审计机构表示仍未与亚泰国际签订2024年度审计业务约定书,紫天科技仍欠付2023年度审计费用,亚泰国际将不再与紫天科技洽谈2024年年审合作事宜。该公司表示,将继续联络审计机构,持续推进年报编制及披露工作。

  二、曾被立案已引发维权

  前段时间,紫天科技曾收监管行政处罚事先告知书,因拒绝配合监管现场调查被严惩。具体来看,2024年4月30日公司披露2023年年报显示,公司2023年归母净利润爆雷巨亏12.1亿元。2023年业绩发生重大亏损属重大事项,但公司并未及时披露,并且年度财务数据与此前披露的一季报、中报及三季报存在重大差异。监管现场检查时,公司方拒绝配合,阻碍执法。因此被监管从重处罚。

  此外,2024年9月公司因涉嫌信息披露违法违规被立案,公司被立案还是深交所于9月7日向该公司发出关注函,才得知该公司涉嫌信息披露违法违规被立案调查的消息。迟至10月27日,该公司才公告被立案调查。该公司的一系列隐匿会计凭证,拒绝调查的行为,背后可能隐藏着更严重的违法违规行为,公司或存在财务造假行为。受损投资者可积极参与维权挽回损失。

  三、退市风险高悬

  公司股票已自3月17日起实施停牌,停牌期限不超过两个月。若在停牌后两个月内仍未按要求完成整改,公司股票可能被实施退市风险警示并复牌,若在被实施退市风险警示后两个月内仍未完成整改,公司股票可能会被终止上市。

  鉴于公司存在多次违规,上海沪紫律师事务所刘鹏律师提示依据相关法律法规,针对该公司的维权区间暂定有以下两个:(紫天科技维权入口)

  1、于2023年4月28日-2024年10月27日期间买入,并在2024年10月28日之后卖出或仍持有而亏损;

  2、截至2024年4月30日收盘时仍持有该股票的投资者。

  (本文由上海沪紫律师事务所刘鹏律师供稿,不代表新浪财经的观点。刘鹏律师,专注证券维权19年,自2006年执业以来,成功为中青宝、国华网安(维权)、劲嘉股份(维权)等300余家上市公司的中小投资者成功维权,案件在办数量超过14000起,胜诉率达99.2%。作为业内资深证券维权律师,刘鹏律师精准把握案件核心,诉讼经验丰富,索赔策略高效,为投资者争取最大权益,维权实力行业领先。证券维权,选对律师是关键!专业决定胜算,经验确保结果,首选刘鹏律师,让您的索赔更稳妥、更高效!)(刘鹏律师专栏)

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