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  美国大型银行正在应对新一轮市场波动,尽管距离上一次的动荡才刚过两年。不过,这一次几乎没有人质疑银行业应对挑战的能力。这归功于当前充足的资本金水平——颇具讽刺意味的是,这得益于多数银行家曾反对的缓冲机制。

  “当前是银行业资本水平的巅峰时刻,”富国证券资深银行分析师MikeMayo说,“综合资本、准备金和盈利能力来看,银行业的韧性几乎达到了几十年来的最高水平。”

  过去三年,美国最大20家银行的资本增加超过1750亿美元。这使得最受密切关注的指标——核心一级资本(CET1)截至上个月末达到近1.3万亿美元。

  由于可用资金充裕,银行业正计划将更多现金返还给股东。初步统计显示,今年第一季度美国最大20家银行总计回购了至少265.6亿美元的股票。其中,摩根大通回购了71亿美元,美国银行回购了45亿美元。该行首席财务官AlastairBorthwick表示,回购额度“还有进一步上调的空间”。在回购方面落后于同行的花旗集团则计划在未来几年内实施总额高达200亿美元的大规模回购计划。

  在Mayo等业内观察人士看来,这是一次姗姗来迟的形势扭转。此前,为应对全球金融危机后的监管要求,以及预计拜登时期监管机构会提出的、旨在符合巴塞尔协议III国际标准的更严格要求,银行被迫大量积累资本。

  对一些首席执行官而言,多一点抗压能力或许并非坏事,尤其是在新的关税可能扰乱企业活动、削弱贷款需求并影响借款人还款能力的背景下。

  “在当前这样的环境中,拥有过剩资本(可以说我们确实有)并非是负担,而是一种优势,”KeyCorp首席执行官ChrisGorman在接受采访时表示。

  城堡投资创始人肯·格里芬表示,特朗普发动的贸易战打乱了商界领袖们未来四年专注于增长的规划。

  格里芬周三在Semafor全球经济峰会上表示,各大公司首席执行官原本期待能迎来很长一段长期稳定、无需应对新规的时期。

  “遗憾的是,这场已经演变得荒谬的贸易战让我们不得不花时间去思考供应链问题,”格里芬在接受采访时表示。他将特朗普目前的执政表现评价为“好坏参半”。

  尽管格里芬曾表示认同特朗普对美国所面临挑战的判断,但他此前就已批评过特朗普的关税政策。周三,他重申,特朗普在移民政策和削减政府浪费方面的作为是其上台以来的重大政绩。

格里芬

  “特朗普总统对发现问题有着极其敏锐的直觉,”格里芬表示。“但我们推进得太快、太杂乱,在试图解决一些确实存在的问题时,反而打碎了很多东西。”

  推荐阅读:美国国债“祛魅”记可能才刚书写序章

  现年56岁的格里芬警告称,美国正在“拿自己的国家品牌冒险”。他认为特朗普的关税措施可能适得其反,关税包括对大多数国家征收10%的基准关税,以及对钢铁和铝进口征收25%的税率。

  “没人会争先恐后地来美国建厂,”格里芬在谈及关税政策时表示,“政策反复无常实际上削弱了原本希望实现的目标”。

  彭博美元指数普遍走强,兑G-10货币均上涨。瑞郎和日元在G-10货币中表现最差。

  彭博美元即期指数上涨0.6%,录得4月7日以来最大涨幅,为连续第二日上涨

  “如果有关局势降级的报道进一步升温,美元反弹可能会持续,”三菱日联金融集团全球市场研究主管DerekHalpenny表示。“但投资者可能仍将保持谨慎,从某种程度上说,损害已经造成。这可能意味着美元的任何反弹都将是短暂且温和的”。

  早些时候,特朗普表示无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。

  “这些事态发展支持了我的观点,即市场确实会影响特朗普的政策,”BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.全球市场策略主管WinThin在报告中写道。“话虽如此,我会对这轮反弹持保留态度,毕竟关税仍未取消”。

  美国企业活动扩张速度降至2023年以来最低水平,在关税冲击下,企业对未来产出的预期恶化,价格压力上升。

  “美国PMI初值表明美国经济表现依然优于多数主要经济体,”法国农业信贷银行G-10外汇研究与策略主管ValentinMarinov表示。“美国衰退担忧减弱应有助于恢复市场对美国资产的信心”并支撑美元。

  澳元/美元跌0.1%,至0.6363。

  美元/瑞郎涨1.3%,至0.8298。

  欧元/美元跌0.8%,至1.1325。

  欧元区4月份私营部门活动几乎没有增长,关税不确定性导致对服务业信心下降至近五年低点。

  美元/加元涨0.5%,至1.3889。

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