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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
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  财联社4月23日讯(编辑马兰)黄金价格在本周走出史诗级行情,纽约金期货价格周二一度涨至每盎司3509美元,创下历史新高。这一强势的上涨也推动华尔街紧急更新对黄金价格的预期。

  摩根大通在周二表示,由于美国关税和中美贸易战,美国经济衰退的可能性在增加,预计金价到2025年第四季度,金价将达到每盎司3675美元,并将在明年突破每盎司4000美元的关口。

  然而,由于周二晚些时候美国总统特朗普表现出对关税政策的缓和态度,而且特朗普也对要将鲍威尔解职一说又有了新表态,市场情绪预计将在短期内得到修复,这可能将打击黄金价格。但分析师们认为,市场仍存在隐性波动,因为美联储的独立性仍处于考验之中。

  此前,特朗普声称美联储主席鲍威尔未能履行职责,威胁将替换鲍威尔。但周二,特朗普又安抚市场称,无意解雇鲍威尔。这一反转的言论虽然暂时平复了市场对美元信用的质疑,但并未完全消除投资者们的担忧。

  短期来看,黄金价格将因为特朗普反复无常的政策表态而持续波动,但金价上涨的趋势仍未出现破坏,这也将为投资者提供一些可行的入场机会。

  短期波动不改长期趋势

  高盛全球外汇、利率和新兴市场主管KamakshyaTrivedi表示,美元已进入持续的长期下跌期间,并会随着美国国债和美国股市一起下跌,外国投资者现在正在重新评估以美元计价的资产的风险回报。

  而这一趋势是由根本性的变化导致的,最重要的原因在于美国的经济衰退风险异常高企,动摇了投资者对美元资产的信心。

  本月早些时候,高盛预计在极端情况下,黄金可能在2025年底价格接近4500美元。该投行的基准预测中,金价今年年底将在3300美元至3700美元之间。

  摩根大通则指出,金价上涨还有一个重要因素:投资者和央行对黄金需求持续强劲,今年平均每季度的净需求为710吨。如果需求持续超出预期,那么上行风险还将增加。

  美国亿万富豪、对冲基金经理JohnPaulson也强调了政治动态之外的因素,指出全球央行的强力买盘是黄金价格上涨的关键推手,而内在原因是全球寻求脱离纸币体系,将黄金作为储备货币。而这一个大趋势不会改变。

  GrupoFinancieroBase驻墨西哥大宗商品市场专家AnaAzuara则对政治环境的不稳定性发出警告,她认为特朗普的贸易攻势将持续下去,这将巩固市场规避风险的策略。此外,对美联储的质疑也将导致美元走弱,并继续推动黄金价格的上涨。

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