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遵命公主殿下:感受那份难以抹去的情感与回忆》
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遵命公主殿下:感受那份难以抹去的情感与回忆》

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  来源:财联社

  今日(4月24日),银行板块再度活跃,截至收盘,齐鲁银行、厦门银行、渝农商行、光大银行等股涨势明显。其中,工、农、中三大行续刷历史新高,建设银行也已逼近此前录得的历史最高点。

注:银行股今日再度活跃(截至4月24日收盘)

  银行新高股频涌现,目前估值水平一览

  作为A股市场的“压舱石”,银行板块的动向一直倍受投资者所关注。今年以来,银行股延续此前较强走势继续拉升,同时不断涌现新高标的,尤其是以工、农、中、建为代表的四大行,股价不断刷新历史新高。具体数据来看,以今日收盘价或最高价较历史最高价相比,除四大行外,江苏银行、成都银行、北京银行、上海银行等股目前距离历史新高均仅有“一步之遥”。

注:银行股今日收盘价/最高价距离历史最高价幅度(截至4月24日收盘)

  从资金面来看,截至4月23日数据,银行板块目前融资余额近553亿元,较4月中旬时有部分回落,同时也为今年以来的较低水平。具体个股来看,以近5个交易日行情统计,累计共有18只银行股遭融资客减持,占整个银行两融标的近47.4%。其中,江苏银行、招商银行、齐鲁银行融资净卖额超1亿元,而宁波银行、兴业银行则双双获融资客超1亿元以上增持。

注:银行板块年内融资余额变动情况(截至4月23日数据)

  目前,银行板块整体估值水平持续提升,截至今日收盘,板块个股平均市净率0.622倍,而去年年末时仅为0.608倍。其中,成都银行、招商银行目前市净率双双已修复至1倍以上。若从指数层面来看,中证银行指数目前市盈率、市净率分别达6.59倍、0.68倍,各处于近十年73.02%、37.27%分位点;股息率已升至6.15倍,处于近十年96.38%分位点。

注:中证银行指数目前股息率情况(截至4月24日收盘)

  今日新高牛股扫描,这些方向占比较高

  除工、农、中三大行外,今日(4月24日)另有16余股同样股价创历史新高,其中,浙江荣泰、中宠股份双双涨停,肇民科技、乖宝宠物、路斯股份等股也涨幅居前。分行业(申万一级)来看,今日创历史新高的个股中,汽车股的比例较高,整体占比接近三成,基础化工、农林牧渔、银行股也相对较多,同时还涵盖食品饮料、机械设备、美容护理板块。

注:今日创历史新高的个股行业分布情况(截至4月24日收盘)

  上述这些今日创历史新高的个股中,不少标的近期获融资客重点加仓。截至4月23日数据,浙江荣泰、中宠股份、联合化学、乖宝宠物、中国银行近5日获增持规模居前,融资净买额分别达0.67亿元、0.40亿元、0.35亿元、0.25亿元、0.19亿元。若从融资控盘比上看,联合化学、恒勃股份、博隆技术该比例相对居前,融资余额较流通市值比例分别达9.5%、5.8%。5.3%。

注:今日创历史新高的两融个股近期获融资客增减持情况(截至4月23日数据)

  若从这些个股近期的股价表现来看,不少为本月的人气高标。截至今日(4月24日)收盘,今日创历史新高的个股中,浙江荣泰月内共获4次涨停,恒勃股份、百亚股份、盐津铺子、联合化学、肇民、中宠股份、万辰集团也各获1次涨停。此外,以年内行情统计,累计共有5股今年以来股价翻倍,分别为双林股份、联合化学、肇民科技、浙江荣泰、华培动力。

注:今日创历史新高的个股本月、年内表现(截至4月24日收盘)

  2024年,传音控股以2.01亿部手机出货量创下历史新高,成为首家年度出货量突破2亿部大关的中国手机厂商。这一数据在全球智能手机市场同比下滑3.2%(IDC数据)的背景下更显突出,其全球市占率攀升至14%,连续五年稳居全球第三。核心增长引擎仍来自非洲市场——智能机市占率超40%,功能机市场份额维持在78%以上。但市场版图已悄然生变:南亚市场贡献率从2020年的28%升至2024年的35%,巴基斯坦、孟加拉国智能机市占率分别突破40%和29.2%,成为新增长极。

  技术突破与成本控制形成双重支撑:全年研发投入25.2亿元,占营收3.66%,重点布局多肤色影像算法、防汗液腐蚀结构等本地化创新。但硬件创新仍受制于价格带,智能机平均售价(ASP)仅85美元,较全球智能机ASP(385美元)差距显著。这种“高销量低溢价”模式,在非洲市场贡献227.19亿元营收(占总营收35.95%)、毛利64.95亿元的同时,也埋下盈利隐患——亚洲等新兴市场毛利率仅17.66%,较非洲市场低10.93个百分点。

  增收不增利困局:成本激增与竞争白热化双重绞杀

  尽管营收同比增长10.31%至687.15亿元,但扣非净利润同比下滑11.54%至45.41亿元,净利率从2020年的9.8%降至6.6%。利润侵蚀源自三重压力:

  供应链成本剧增:4G芯片采购价同比上涨22%,DRAM内存涨幅达18%(TrendForce数据),叠加海运费用高位运行,直接拉低毛利率3.2个百分点至21.3%。

  新兴市场货币贬值冲击:尼日利亚奈拉年度贬值35%、埃塞俄比亚比尔贬值28%,导致汇兑损失达8.2亿元,相当于净利润的14.8%。

  竞争加剧下的价格战:小米在非洲季度出货量同比增长22%,realme增速达70%,迫使传音四季度非洲出货量同比仅增1%,市场份额从51%跌至49%。

  库存压力与渠道投入激增加剧困境:存货金额攀升至153亿元,同比增长29%,库存周转天数延长至107天。为稳固市场地位,销售费用增长18.7%至66亿元,其中34亿元用于新增1.5万个零售网点,这种“以利润换市场”策略使期间费用率突破15%。

  破局之路:高端突围与生态构建的生死时速

  面对盈利瓶颈,传音控股开启战略转型:

  中高端市场突破:推出售价400美元以上的TecnoPhantomX3系列,搭载联发科天玑9200芯片,在沙特、阿联酋等市场试水。2024年智能机ASP提升至85美元,但300美元以上机型占比仍不足3%。

  AIoT生态布局:数码配件品牌oraimo在非洲品牌百强榜跃升至第81位,智能家居产品线扩展至32个SKU,但扩品类业务收入占比不足5%。移动互联服务月活用户达2.1亿,Boomplay音乐流媒体用户突破8000万,但互联网业务营收仅9.8亿元,占总收入1.4%。

  财务策略显现两面性:全年分红34.21亿元,占净利润61.65%,股息率3.69%吸引长期资本。但高分红与研发投入增长形成资金博弈——2024年资本开支压缩至18亿元,同比减少12%,5G芯片研发进度落后主流厂商12-18个月。

  行业分析师指出,传音面临三重生死考验:在非洲需抵御小米等厂商的“本土化复制”(雷军宣布2025年非洲门店扩张至500家);在亚洲市场遭遇三星A系列低价机型的正面阻击;技术层面则需在2025年前实现5G机型占比突破15%,当前该比例不足5%。

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