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  盖世汽车讯据报道,根据市场分析公司CloudTheory的数据,美国新车的平均市场标价自2024年12月7日以来首次超过5万美元,并且预计还会继续上涨,而在特朗普宣布一系列关税政策之前,美国汽车均价曾有所下降。

  CloudTheory公司称,4月14日,美国市场新车平均广告标价已达50,025美元,创下去年12月7日(50,030美元)以来的价格峰值。

  该公司的数据科学与分析副总裁RickWainschel表示,最近的新车价格上涨主要是由于特朗普政府开始计划实施广泛的关税政策,厂商和经销商自2月上旬至中旬起减少了优惠措施和折扣。

  Wainschel指出:“新关税政策推出后,包括汽车行业在内的每个行业均面临规划困境。”他认为当前的价格调整本质上是防御性策略,厂商与经销商正通过收缩促销力度来储备资金实力,以应对未来政策不确定性带来的市场波动。

  CloudTheory公司的定价数据可追溯至2018年,该数据记录了汽车平均市场标价的大幅上涨。这一上涨始于2021年3月,当时由于芯片及其他零部件供应短缺,行业库存降至现代历史低点,同时汽车制造商的生产结构也因此发生变化,转而专注于生产利润更高的车型。CloudTheory称,汽车均价在2021年9月首次突破4万美元大关,并在2023年7月7日达到了51,824美元的历史最高点。

  在过去12个月里,该数据最高值出现在2024年6月6日,为50,590美元,之后随着行业库存状况改善并稳定在约300万辆的水平,新车标价开始缓慢回落。

  根据CloudTheory的监测数据,随着特朗普政府关税政策框架逐步明确,美国新车平均市场标价于2月24日跌至48,544美元阶段性低点后开始反弹,并于4月呈现加速上涨态势,自4月1日以来已累计上涨数百美元。

  CloudTheory公司一直通过车辆识别码(VIN)系统,每日监测全美特许经销商处数百万辆新车的广告标价,旨在评估特朗普政府的关税政策对车辆定价会产生何种影响。

  需说明的是,统计所得的平均市场标价是指经销商在广告中所标注的车辆价格,其中包括经销商宣传的优惠措施,但可能并不反映消费者实际支付的价格,而消费者实际支付的价格是指整个行业中的车辆平均交易价格。

  金十数据

  特朗普直接打掉了欧洲央行的暂停选项,一场降息潮将至?

  由于全球关税紧张局势和不确定性威胁到欧元区的经济增长,市场普遍预计欧洲央行将在今年第三次下调利率。

  根据伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)的数据,截至周三,市场最新定价反映欧洲央行降息25个基点的可能性约为94%,而降息幅度更大(50个基点)的可能性接近6%。下调25个基点将使欧洲央行的存款便利利率(其关键利率)降至2.25%,低于2023年年中4%的高点。

  这一系列相对快速的降息发生之际,欧元区的通胀率一直低于3%,近期更是接近欧洲央行2%的目标。与此同时,该地区的经济增长一直乏力。

  当该央行在今年3月上次降息时,它调整了关于货币政策的措辞,称其“正在变得明显不那么具有限制性”。而在今年1月,欧洲央行仍将货币政策描述为“限制性的”。

  这种措辞的转变被一些经济学家解读为一个信号,表明决策者在进一步降低利率方面变得更加谨慎,引发了关于货币宽松周期是否可能暂停的疑问。但过去几周全球贸易和关税的过山车行情在一定程度上改变了这种看法。

  关税引发的增长担忧

  荷兰国际集团全球宏观主管CarstenBrzeski周一在一份报告中表示:“3月会议后,欧洲央行似乎准备在下次会议上暂停(降息)。考虑到利率处于中性利率估算区间的上限,稍作喘息似乎是合适的。尤其是在德国财政政策大转弯以及欧洲明显有意增加安全和国防开支之后出现的‘欧洲乐观情绪’(europhoria),显著改善了欧元区的增长前景。然而,自(特朗普宣布关税的)‘解放日’以来,暂停已不再是一个选项。”

  他说,全球关税政策重新引发了对欧元区增长的担忧。因此,Brzeski评估认为,“欧洲央行被迫降息。”

  Investec经济学家RyanDjajasaputra在一份报告中指出,尽管美国宣布的许多关税计划已被暂时搁置或削减。但贸易、关税以及潜在宏观经济影响的前景仍然不明朗。

  他说,“不确定性仍然很高,无法保证个别国家或欧盟能够与美国达成协议。也无法确定特朗普未来不会再次改变其政策,这就是当前环境的本质,”他暗示这支持了欧洲央行继续降息的理由。

  限制性利率?

  在3月份已经软化了关于利率限制性程度的措辞之后,欧洲央行可能在周四再次做出调整。

  Brzeski表示,央行将“不得不改变其沟通方式”,暗示如果欧洲央行选择进一步降息,它将表明较低的2.25%存款利率“现在将处于中性利率区间内”。

  关于欧洲央行所谓的中性利率水平到底在哪里,几个月来一直是决策者、分析师和经济学家热议的话题。在中性水平上,利率既不刺激也不限制经济,可以保持稳定。欧洲央行估计其中性利率在1.75%至2.25%之间。

  德意志银行研究部的经济学家似乎对任何潜在的措辞转变更为犹豫,称他们相信周四的措辞将保持不变。“结合通胀正回归目标的观点,这隐含着鸽派倾向。”

  美国政策给欧洲央行利率前景蒙上阴影

  德意志银行研究部的经济学家认为,展望周四欧洲央行的决定之后,未来的利率路径预计将是“开放式的”。

  他们不认为欧洲央行关于利率前景的措辞会改变,即决策者所说的不会预先承诺特定的利率路径,并将在每次会议上以依赖数据的方式做出决定。

  他们说:“这种开放式的措辞允许政策立场根据数据保持限制性、转向中性或转为刺激性,”并补充说,这在技术上意味着欧洲央行有可能在6月份暂停降息。

  尽管如此,这些经济学家的预测仍然是欧洲央行将会进一步降息。Investec的Djajasaputra暗示,未来的政策路径在很大程度上将取决于美国以及全球贸易的发展。

  他说:“4月会议之后,欧洲央行的利率前景被白宫的政策决定所笼罩并受其影响,”并补充说,他预计今年晚些时候欧洲央行会再次降息,尽管这一步的时机将取决于即将发布的经济数据和其他经济发展。

  迪哲医药是“科八条”发布以来,再融资获得证监会注册的首家上交所未盈利企业。

  4月17日上午开盘后,科创板药企迪哲医药(688192.SH)盘中涨幅一度超过3.9%,前一晚,公司发布公告宣布已完成17.96亿元定增。

  根据公告,迪哲医药本次发行价格确定为43.00元/股,共有24个认购对象参与发行申购,最终获配发行对象共计14名,其中包括公募基金和保险资金,如泰康资产、朱雀基金、鹏华基金、诺德基金、博时基金等,也有瑞银为代表的QFII外资机构投资者,以及无锡股权投资和生物医药产业基金。

  迪哲医药本次再融资的目的,是计划投资新药研发以及国际标准创新药产业化项目,同时补充流动资金。公司目前对于临床试验产品及商业化产品是以生产外包服务(CMO)的形式对其进行委托生产。

  迪哲医药已有两款产品舒沃哲和高瑞哲在国内上市并进入新版国家医保目录,并且舒沃哲向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)递交的上市申请已经获得受理并纳入优先审评。

  根据公司前期发布的业绩快报,2024年,公司归属于上市公司股东的净亏损为8.57亿元,较上年度减少2.51亿元。

  迪哲医药这起再融资之所以备受关注,原因在于这是“科八条”发布以来,再融资获得证监会注册的首家上交所未盈利企业。今年2月7日,证监会同意公司向特定对象发行股票的注册申请。

  今年以来,科创板其他生物医药企业也在陆陆续续启动融资。据第一财经记者不完全统计,还有5家药企(不包括器械企业)发布了关于提请股东大会授权董事会办理以简易程序向特定对象发行股票相关事宜的公告,或者向特定对象发行A股股票申请获得上交所受理的公告,这些企业分别是科兴制药(688136.SH)、复旦张江(688505.SH)、康希诺(688185.SH)、悦康药业(688658.SH)、百利天恒(688506.SH)。

  其中,百利天恒今年4月份发布拟再融资不超过39亿元公告,扣除发行费用后,实际募集资金将全部用于创新药研发项目,该再融资申请已获得上交所受理。

  生物医药资本市场是否有逐渐回暖趋势,受到市场关注。根据东方财富Choice金融终端数据,今年以来,截至4月16日,科创板生物产业板块中的110只个股,有一半以上的个股累计涨幅为正数,其中累计涨幅超过30%的共有17只。

  近期有部分券商唱多创新药行业,认为受到的“对等关税”影响很低。如国金证券认为,中国创新药出海多数采用BD(BusinessDevelopment,商务合作,即将药物的海外开发权益授权给国外药企)、NewCo(设立海外新公司,授权管线并获得股权)等方式,其本质是IP(IntellectualProperty)的交易,并不涉及具体药品的制造出口,关税波动风险小。

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