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今年以来,由美国总统特朗普引发的“全球关税大战”导致美股剧烈震荡。截至4月15日收盘,$标普500指数(.SPX.US)$从2月的高位回落近12%。令一些技术分析投资者不安的是,标普500指数出现了“死叉”信号。当代表中期趋势50天移动平均线(DMA)位于200日移动平均线(代表长期趋势)下方时,就会出现死亡交叉。尽管“死叉”听起来像是不祥的转跌信号,但历史数据表明,这并不一定意味着股市还有更显着的下行空间。分析师:现在“死叉”看起来是结果而非预期“‘死叉’通常发生在大部分技术损害造成之后,”ChartSmarter创始人兼市场技术员DouglasBusch说,“有点像看后视镜。”FairleadStrategies创始人兼市场技术KatieStockton同意这种说法,称交叉为“滞后指标”,并补充说它不是判断市场时机的可靠工具,且会影响交易员的心理,会产生“卖出反弹与买入市场疲软”的错觉。值得留意的是,回顾过去约50年的数据,标普500指数出现了24次50日均线和200日均线“死叉”。LSEG数据的分析显示,在54%的“死叉”发生在指数的大跌点之后,这意味着最糟糕的下跌已经发生在“死叉”之前。另有46%的情况下,市场抛售加剧,标普500指数从“死叉”记录点平均下跌了19%。例如,1981年、2000年和2007年“死叉”之后,随后分别下跌了21%、45%和55%。美银技术策略师PaulCiana在分析近百年数据的报告中则指出,在“死叉”信号发出30天后,标普500指数有60%的概率上涨,平均涨幅0.8%。另一些分析师认为,市场已经遭受严重的抛售——标普500指数距离本月20%的回撤不到1%——以及各种看跌情绪指标$标普500波动率指数(.VIX.US)$的回落暗示抛售潮可能已经结束。LPLFinancial首席技术策略师AdamTurnquist表示:“当你真正回溯测试历史上的死亡交叉时,你成为买家比成为死叉的卖家要好。因为过去一周我们在更广泛的市场中看到了投降的重大信号。从图表来看,这更像是2018年、2020年那种潜在的V型复苏,而非更持久的下跌。”接下来指数看什么点位,如何应对?如今回首往事,投资者的担忧显而易见,他们担心特朗普总统严厉的关税政策会推高美国消费者的物价,导致其他国家对美国出口商进行报复,并减缓整体经济增长。这些都不利于盈利增长和股价上涨,一些担忧已经反映在市场上。CappThesis创始人兼市场技术分析师FrankCappelleri表示,投资者应关注标普500指数的5500点,这代表了市场的一个阻力位,如果突破这一水平可能意味着最糟糕的时期已经过去,但这将取决于特朗普。2022年的通胀期成因众多,很多都与新冠疫情有关,但关税恐慌本质上是自作自受的现象,特朗普如何调整并应对不断升级的贸易战,对市场而言至关重要。在美股如此震荡的行情下,投资者应该如何应对?一些投资者可能会选择做空/做多三大指数,倍数分别有1倍、2倍和3倍的选择。这类杠杆ETF不仅可以用以对冲投资组合风险,还可以利用华尔街投资者的情绪,富途资讯整理了几种常见指数对冲ETF供牛友参考:1、道琼斯指数做空:$道指ETF-ProShares做空$、$ProShares两倍做空道琼30指数ETF$、$三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares$。做多:$道琼斯指数ETF-SPDR$、$2倍做多道指ETF-Proshares$、$三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares$。2、纳斯达克指数做空:$做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares$、$ProShares两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF$、$三倍做空纳指ETF-ProShares$。做多:$纳指100ETF-InvescoQQQTrust$、$三倍做多纳指ETF-ProShares$、$2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares$。3、标普500指数做空:$Proshares做空标普500$、$ProShares两倍做空标普500ETF$、$三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares$。做多:$标普500ETF-Vanguard(VOO.US)$、$标普500ETF-SPDR$、$标普500ETF-iShares$、$2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares$、$三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares$、$三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion$。需要注意的是,这类ETF不适合作为长期投资,而且专业基金的费用比率一般也比较高,可能会影响总回报。想知道更多市场解读分析?牛牛AI上线!精准解答,全方位洞察,掌握关键机会!编辑/Rocky今年以来,由美国总统特朗普引发的「全球关税大战」导致美股剧烈震荡。截至4月15日收盘,$标普500指数(.SPX.US)$从2月的高位回落近12%。令一些技术分析投资者不安的是,标普500指数出现了「死叉」信号。当代表中期趋势50天移动平均线(DMA)位于200日移动平均线(代表长期趋势)下方时,就会出现死亡交叉。尽管「死叉」听起来像是不祥的转跌信号,但历史数据表明,这并不一定意味着股市还有更显着的下行空间。分析师:现在「死叉」看起来是结果而非预期「『死叉』通常发生在大部分技术损害造成之后,」ChartSmarter创始人兼市场技术员DouglasBusch说,「有点像看后视镜。」FairleadStrategies创始人兼市场技术KatieStockton同意这种说法,称交叉为「滞后指标」,并补充说它不是判断市场时机的可靠工具,且会影响交易员的心理,会产生「卖出反弹与买入市场疲软」的错觉。值得留意的是,回顾过去约50年的数据,标普500指数出现了24次50日均线和200日均线「死叉」。LSEG数据的分析显示,在54%的「死叉」发生在指数的大跌点之后,这意味着最糟糕的下跌已经发生在「死叉」之前。另有46%的情况下,市场抛售加剧,标普500指数从「死叉」记录点平均下跌了19%。例如,1981年、2000年和2007年「死叉」之后,随后分别下跌了21%、45%和55%。美银技术策略师PaulCiana在分析近百年数据的报告中则指出,在「死叉」信号发出30天后,标普500指数有60%的概率上涨,平均涨幅0.8%。另一些分析师认为,市场已经遭受严重的抛售——标普500指数距离本月20%的回撤不到1%——以及各种看跌情绪指标$标普500波动率指数(.VIX.US)$的回落暗示抛售潮可能已经结束。LPLFinancial首席技术策略师AdamTurnquist表示:「当你真正回溯测试历史上的死亡交叉时,你成为买家比成为死叉的卖家要好。因为过去一周我们在更广泛的市场中看到了投降的重大信号。从图表来看,这更像是2018年、2020年那种潜在的V型复苏,而非更持久的下跌。」接下来指数看什么点位,如何应对?如今回首往事,投资者的担忧显而易见,他们担心特朗普总统严厉的关税政策会推高美国消费者的物价,导致其他国家对美国出口商进行报复,并减缓整体经济增长。这些都不利于盈利增长和股价上涨,一些担忧已经反映在市场上。CappThesis创始人兼市场技术分析师FrankCappelleri表示,投资者应关注标普500指数的5500点,这代表了市场的一个阻力位,如果突破这一水平可能意味着最糟糕的时期已经过去,但这将取决于特朗普。2022年的通胀期成因众多,很多都与新冠疫情有关,但关税恐慌本质上是自作自受的现象,特朗普如何调整并应对不断升级的贸易战,对市场而言至关重要。在美股如此震荡的行情下,投资者应该如何应对?一些投资者可能会选择做空/做多三大指数,倍数分别有1倍、2倍和3倍的选择。这类杠杆ETF不仅可以用以对冲投资组合风险,还可以利用华尔街投资者的情绪,富途资讯整理了几种常见指数对冲ETF供牛友参考:1、道琼斯指数做空:$道指ETF-ProShares做空(DOG.US)$、$ProShares两倍做空道琼30指数ETF(DXD.US)$、$三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares(SDOW.US)$。做多:$道琼斯指数ETF-SPDR(DIA.US)$、$2倍做多道指ETF-Proshares(DDM.US)$、$三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares(UDOW.US)$。2、纳斯达克指数做空:$做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares(PSQ.US)$、$ProShares两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF(QID.US)$、$三倍做空纳指ETF-ProShares(SQQQ.US)$。做多:$纳指100ETF-InvescoQQQTrust(QQQ.US)$、$三倍做多纳指ETF-ProShares(TQQQ.US)$、$2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares(QLD.US)$。3、标普500指数做空:$Proshares做空标普500(SH.US)$、$ProShares两倍做空标普500ETF(SDS.US)$、$三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares(SPXU.US)$。做多:$标普500ETF-Vanguard(VOO.US)$、$标普500指数ETF-SPDR(SPY.US)$、$标普500ETF-iShares(IVV.US)$、$2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares(SSO.US)$、$三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares(UPRO.US)$、$三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion(SPXL.US)$。需要注意的是,这类ETF不适合作为长期投资,而且专业基金的费用比率一般也比较高,可能会影响总回报。想知道更多市场解读分析?牛牛AI上线!精准解答,全方位洞察,掌握关键机会!编辑/Rocky

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