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  来源:国际金融报

  民营银行又迎来一波利率下调。

  近日,无锡锡商银行和福建华通银行在官网更新了存款利率表,部分定期存款产品利率再度下行。

  4月22日,《国际金融报》记者梳理发现,4月以来,19家民营银行中已有过半数机构下调了存款产品挂牌利率。其中,有银行在月内、年内多次做出调整,有的还出现存款利率“倒挂”现象。

  受访专家指出,民营银行调降中长期利率是强化资产负债管理、优化利率风险管理的措施之一,存款利率“倒挂”反映了银行对利率下行的预期及短期流动性压力,同时也与短期存款市场竞争加剧等因素有关。

  存款利率“倒挂”

  具体看来,民营银行本轮下调密集且迅速。

  以华通银行为例,利率下调公告发布后不到24小时,挂牌利率调整便已完成。4月20日,华通银行公告称,自4月21日0时起,调整2年期、3年期和5年期个人、单位定期存款挂牌利率,以及一天通知单位存款挂牌利率。其中,2年期至5年期的三款个人定存产品,利率分别调整至2.00%、2.45%和2.50%。3年期和5年期产品分别较此前下调25BP(基点)和10BP。

  值得关注的是,这已是华通银行4月第二次下调存款利率。4月12日,该行同样提前一日公告,于4月13日将3个月、3年、5年个人定期存款挂牌利率分别调整为1.30%、2.70%和2.60%。另外,华瑞银行也在4月两度下调存款利率,均针对中长期整存整取定期存款。两次调降后,3年期和5年期定存利率分别为2.60%和2.55%,分别累计下行10BP、15BP。

  此外,本轮出现利率下调的锡商银行、新安银行、富民银行等机构,早在今年2月份就已完成一轮利率下调。

  延续此前的调整风格,多家机构本次仅调整了中长期存款产品利率。新安银行、富民银行、华瑞银行、金城银行等调整后均出现存款利率“倒挂”的情况,5年期定存利率低于3年期定存利率。

  也有银行选择调整大额存单利率。4月1日,众邦银行将3年期和5年期大额存单年利率分别调整至2.4%和2.5%。锡商银行则同时调整了3年和5年定存及大额存单产品利率。

  “在存款利率调整过程中,期限较长的存款产品利率往往更高,因此成为存款利率下调的优先对象。近期甚至又出现存款利率倒挂现象,即期限较长的存款产品利率低于期限较短的存款产品利率,这一现象出现的原因是多方面的。”招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼对记者指出,“这一方面反映出银行对利率走势的研判,即银行预判存款利率将继续下行,主动减少吸收利率较高的中长期存款。另一方面,部分中小银行短期内面临流动性压力,通过提高短期存款利率来吸收存款,缓解短期资金紧张局面。”

  董希淼进一步指出,调降中长期利率是银行强化资产负债管理、优化利率风险管理的措施之一,存款利率“倒挂”也与一段时间来短期存款市场竞争加剧等因素有关。

  利率仍有下行空间

  据国家金融监管总局公开的2024年商业银行主要指标数据,民营银行的净息差水平远高于国有行、股份行等其他银行金融机构以及银行业平均水平。

  2024年,民营银行各季度的净息差指标分别为4.32%、4.21%、4.13%和4.11%。相较而言,其他银行金融机构的净息差水平均在2%以下,截至2024年四季度末,行业净息差水平已下行至1.52%。

  值得注意的是,据央行4月21日公布的数据,LPR已经连续六个月“按兵不动”,保持在1年期LPR为3.1%、5年期以上LPR为3.6%的水平。多位分析人士认为,二季度仍有降准、降息的可能性。

  东方金诚宏观首席分析师王青在研报中指出,综合当下外部经贸环境变化,国内房地产市场和物价走势,二季度“择机降准降息”时机已经成熟,不排除提前到4月的可能。本次降息幅度可能达到30个基点,降幅与去年全年相当。

  “这意味着下一步有力度的政策性降息将带动LPR报价下行,进而引导企业和居民贷款利率下调,较大幅度降低实体经济融资成本。这是当前促消费、扩投资,大力提振内需,对冲潜在外需放缓,切实增强宏观经济韧性的有效措施之一。这也意味着今年超常规逆周期调节全面启动。”王青指出,未来LPR报价将给银行带来一定净息差收窄压力,将主要通过引导存款利率下行、全面降低银行资金成本等方式缓解。

  值得关注的是,尽管民营银行的净息差水平仍然“一骑绝尘”,但从数据走势来看已呈现下行趋势。随着最近半年来民营银行密集下调存款利率,净息差与行业平均水平的差距也在缩小。

  董希淼指出,不同的商业银行由于市场竞争、客户定位、负债结构等因素有所不同,调整存款利率的节奏、幅度各有不同。民营银行受品牌形象等因素影响,吸收存款的能力相对较弱,以往普遍以较高利率来吸引客户,因此利率下调的空间更大。

  “下一阶段,在推动社会综合融资成本稳中有降的情况下,商业银行息差收窄压力仍然较大,还将继续下调存款利率,以进一步压降资金成本,减缓息差缩窄的压力。除了下调存款利率,商业银行还应减少对存款的利息补贴以及利息之外的费用,进一步压降存款的隐性成本。”董希淼建议道。

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