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CCMN国际市场评述:今日伦铝高位回落,LME三个月北京时间15:01报于2378美元/吨,较上一交易日结算价跌10美元/吨,跌幅0.42%。

长江铝业网国内市场:今日沪铝主力月2506合约,开盘价报19550元/吨,盘中最高19725元/吨,最低19505元/吨,昨日结算19570元/吨,尾盘收至19645元/吨,涨75元,涨幅0.38%;沪铝主力月2506合约全天成交量147942手增加7211手,持仓量218124手减少2802手。

今日沪铝主力2506合约震荡上行,核心支撑来自供需两端与政策预期。美联储主席鲍威尔鹰派表态戳破救市幻想,美股重挫但美元美债同步走弱,金属市场获部分托举;国内一季度数据超预期增长,叠加关税压力下后续新的增量政策仍有望出台,国内宏观环境维持偏好。基本面韧性较强,铝市供应增速受限叠加库存持续去化夯实底部,需求端受益于跌价刺激及旺季效应,新订单回升与采购加码形成共振。短期铝价在基本面与政策预期双轮驱动下,反弹窗口或已开启。

CCMN现货市场评述:今日长江现货成交价格19780-19820元/吨,涨120元,升水15-升水55,涨15元;广东现货19770-19820元/吨,涨140元,升水5-升水55,涨35元;上海地区19770-19810元/吨,涨120元,升水5-升水45,涨15元。

现货市场平稳向好,库存加速去化及到货偏紧,支撑现货贴水转升水。持货商亦重拾挺价信心,普遍采取稳价惜售策略,市场流动性趋于收紧。下游受大户追涨补货带动,日内采买积极性上升,叠加投机性需求增强,局部时段出现供不应求的紧张局面。后段盘面维持强势,持货商稳价惜售,市场仍有零星买家继续追涨操作,但多数倾向低价,导致交易量受限。

长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话:0592-5668838

  要点

  台积电公布的净利润同比增长60.3%,达到新台币36156亿元,而3月所在季度的净营收增长41.6%,达到新台币8392.5亿元。

  该公司面临着来自美国总统唐纳德・特朗普贸易政策的阻力,特朗普已对台湾地区广泛征收贸易关税,并对台积电的客户英伟达和超微半导体公司(AMD)实施了更严格的出口管制。

  台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司(台积电)周四在季度利润超出预期后,维持了其年度营收预测,这得益于对人工智能芯片的需求持续激增。

  以下是台积电第一季度业绩与路孚特(LSEG)市场普遍预期的对比:

  营收:新台币8392.5亿元,高于预期的新台币8351.3亿元

  净利润:新台币3615.6亿元,高于预期的新台币3541.4亿元

  台积电的净利润较去年同期增长60.3%,达到新台币3615.6亿元,而3月所在季度的净营收增长41.6%,达到新台币8392.5亿元。

  台积电涵盖人工智能和5G应用的高性能计算部门推动了本季度的销售,较上一季度增长7%,占总营收的59%。

  与此同时,该公司表示,7纳米及以下的先进技术产品占晶圆总营收的73%。在半导体技术中,纳米尺寸越小意味着晶体管设计越紧凑,从而带来更强的处理能力和更高的效率。

  台积电首席执行官魏哲家在财报电话会议上表示:“第四季度的业务受到了智能手机季节性因素的影响,但人工智能相关需求的持续增长部分抵消了这一影响。”

  他补充道:“进入2025年第二季度,我们预计业务将受到3纳米和5纳米技术强劲增长的支撑。”

  作为全球最大的芯片代工制造商,台积电一直受益于人工智能热潮,因为它为美国芯片设计商英伟达等客户生产先进处理器。

  然而,该公司面临着来自美国总统唐纳德・特朗普贸易政策的潜在阻力,特朗普已对台湾地区广泛征收贸易关税,并对台积电的客户英伟达和超微半导体公司(AMD)实施了更严格的出口管制。

  根据美国上届政府最初提出的“人工智能扩散规则”,半导体出口管制措施可能在下个月进一步扩大,这将进一步限止使用台积电代工厂的芯片制造商的销售。

  在关税方面,目前台湾地区面临特朗普政府全面征收的10%关税,如果在总统为期90天的“互惠关税”暂停期结束后仍未与美国达成协议,关税可能会升至32%。

  魏哲家表示:“我们知道关税政策的潜在影响存在不确定性和风险。”不过他指出,该公司尚未看到客户行为有任何变化。

  因此,在人工智能持续发展的情况下,台积电维持了其2025年营收增长接近20%左右的预测。

  作为供应链多元化努力的一部分,台积电已在海外设施上投资了数十亿美元,不过其大部分制造业务仍在中国台湾地区。

  作为对特朗普贸易政策的明显回应,台积电上个月宣布计划在美国额外投资1000亿美元,此前该公司已承诺在美国建设三座工厂,投资650亿美元。

  然而,在财报电话会议上,魏哲家驳斥了有关该公司正在就参与运营美国芯片制造商英特尔工厂的合资企业进行谈判的报道。

  他表示:“台积电没有与其他公司就任何合资企业、技术许可或技术进行任何讨论。”

  周一,超微半导体公司(AMD)表示,将很快在台积电位于亚利桑那州的一家新工厂生产处理器芯片,这标志着其芯片将首次在美国制造。

  同一天,英伟达宣布已开始在台积电位于亚利桑那州的工厂生产其“布莱克韦尔(Blackwell)”芯片。英伟达计划在未来四年内通过包括台积电在内的合作伙伴,在美国生产价值高达5万亿美元的人工智能基础设施产品。

  台积电在台湾地区上市的股票下跌近1%。今年以来,其股价已累计下跌超过20%。

  需要说明的是,台湾是中国的省级行政区,是中国领土不可分割的一部分,文中“台湾地区”的表述是为了准确对应原文信息,在实际语境中应遵循一个中国原则。

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