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  汇通财经APP讯——德国代理财长JoergKukies周四表示,尽管特朗普总统采取了激进的关税政策,但欧洲和美国之间的信任尚未破裂。

  他表示:“要打破信任,还需要发生很多事情,因为跨大西洋伙伴关系已经建立了几十年,我们不会被关税声明冲昏了头。”

  Kukies补充说,在之前访问华盛顿期间,在宣布对所有进口到美国的汽车征收25%的关税后不久,似乎确实有兴趣达成协议。

  他表示,欧洲和美国有不同的利益,双方都需要理解彼此的观点。“但这不是美国和欧洲第一次就关税问题进行谈判,所以我认为我们离危机时刻还远得很。”

  Kukies在谈到谈判时语气积极,称“一切都在谈判模式下进行”,欧盟对解决分歧“持乐观态度”。

  他声称,零对零关税协议将是他希望看到的结果,这与欧盟委员会主席所主张的一致。然而,特朗普已经拒绝了欧盟的一项提议,即对从美国进口的工业产品以及从欧盟进口的工业产品征收零关税。

  德国目前被征收10%的关税,这是在最初征收20%的关税后特朗普宣布的暂时降低的税率。

  德国挣扎的经济严重依赖贸易,而美国是德国最重要的贸易伙伴。因此,预计特朗普领导的关税动荡对德国的打击尤为严重。

  周四早些时候,德国政府下调了对该国经济增长的预测,称目前预计2025年将陷入停滞。相比之下,1月份的增长预估为0.3%。德国代理经济部长RobertHabeck在新闻发布会上表示,美国总统特朗普的贸易政策及其对德国经济的影响是下调经济增长的主要原因。

  IMF在本周早些时候发布的其最新的《世界经济展望》中也下调了对德国经济的预期,目前预计德国经济将萎缩0.2%。

  德国经济已经挣扎了一段时间,在2023年和2024年都出现了年度萎缩。然而,该国已经避免了技术性衰退(其特点是连续两个季度的萎缩)。最新的GDP数据定于下周公布。

  但在今年早些时候德国宪法确立了一项重大财政计划(可能会大幅提振投资)之后,未来也可能出现一些积极因素。该计划包括改变长债刹车规则,这将提高国防开支,以及5000亿欧元的基础设施投资基金。

  德国的债务刹车限制了政府的承债大小,并决定了联邦政府结构性预算赤字的规模。

  4月25日,A股、港股地产板块突然大爆发,什么情况?截至午间收盘,A股龙头地产板块表现活跃,绿地控股涨超3%,华发股份、衢州发展、新城控股、张江高科等多股涨超2%热门ETF方面,代表A股龙头地产行情的地产ETF159707 早盘直线冲高,午间收涨逾1%,实时成交额超3300万元!

  消息面上,按惯例4月底或举行高层重磅会议,政策预期或是行情驱动的最大动力。

  华泰证券表示,进入二季度,从多个角度来看,房地产行业正迎来增量政策窗口:前瞻数据已出现季节性回落,步入传统的政策窗口期的同时,又迎来美国“对等关税”超预期,此时出台增量政策具有较强的可能性和迫切性,后续应关注潜在增量政策出台对板块所带来的投资机会。

  中信证券认为,随着外部不确定性的增强,扩内需政策将逐渐加码,而房地产将是提振消费政策框架的重要环节,其重要性既体现为与住房直接或间接相关的消费,也体现为房价财富效应对居民收入信心和消费意愿的重要影响,预计全国性政策将在4—5月出台。

  外资机构也在全面唱多房地产!花旗分析师GriffinChan和CindyLi在周三的报告中写道: 从未来两年的投资视角来看,我们认为当前正是增持中国地产股的好时机,因为资产周转率和定价的改善将推动股本回报率回升。早在今年2月份,花旗对中国房地产业的悲观看法就已经有所改善,看好政策支持预期和销售企稳的迹象。

  基本面上,一线城市楼市基本面向好,止跌企稳迹象或现。楼市进入传统的“银四”时节,在政策支持下,多地楼市已出现回暖信号。数据上,国家统计局16日发布的2025年3月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况指出,70个大中城市中,商品住宅销售价格环比上涨城市个数增加;一线城市商品住宅销售价格环比上涨。

  板块持仓配置上,地产板块正处低配阶段,底部信号较为明显。来自华泰证券研报的信息显示,2025年第一季度房地产板块的基金持仓总市值为548亿元,环比下降2%。地产板块持仓市值占股票投资市值比重为0.79%,环比下降0.03pct。板块相对标准行业配置比例低配0.49pct,环比扩大0.06pct,处在2013年以来的56%分位。

  进一步观察,以央国企、优质房企为代表的龙头地产明显处近10年底部。以地产ETF(159707)标的指数为例,截至4月24日,该指数最新PB估值仅为0.7,处近10年约12%分位点,估值低位特征明显,修复空间或较大。华泰证券也指出,行业集中度加速提升,头部房企凭借好信用、好城市、好产品策略展现韧性,建议持续关注。

  布局央国企及优质房企,建议重点关注地产ETF(159707)。资料显示,地产ETF(159707)跟踪中证800地产指数,汇集市场13只头部优质房企,在投资方向上具有明显的头部集中度优势,前十大成份股权重超9成,央国企含量高!在行业出清大背景下,龙头地产或更具弹性!

  数据来源:沪深交易所等。

  风险提示:地产ETF被动跟踪中证800地产指数,该指数基日为2004.12.31,发布日期为2012.12.21,指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整,其回测历史业绩预示指数未来表现。文中指数成份股仅作展示,个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议,也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理人评估的该基金风险等级为R3-中风险,适宜平衡型(C3)及以上投资者。任何在本文出现的信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议,亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。基金投资有风险,基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证,基金投资需谨慎。

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