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  华夏时报

  创造历史!

  当地时间4月21日,美股三大指数低开低走,盘中均一度跌逾3%。截至收盘,道琼斯工业指数下跌2.48%,跌逾970点;纳斯达克指数下跌2.55%,跌逾410点;标普500指数下跌2.36%,跌逾120点,再迎“黑色星期一”。

  大型科技股全线下跌,Wind美国科技七巨头指数大跌3.06%。特斯拉下跌5.75%,市值蒸发446亿美元;英伟达下跌4.51%,市值蒸发1118亿美元。美股“七巨头”市值合计蒸发4046亿美元(合人民币2.95万亿元)。

  银行股多数下跌,摩根大通、高盛集团、美国银行、富国银行跌逾1%,花旗集团跌近1%,摩根士丹利跌逾2%。

  热门中概股多数上涨,纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨0.20%,中金科工业、禾赛科技涨逾6%,多尼斯涨逾5%,好未来涨逾2%。

  花旗集团股票策略师称,下调对美国股市评级,关税政策损害经济增长和企业盈利,资金撤离美国股市寻求多元化投资的趋势增强。美国银行和贝莱德等机构也已对美股前景转为看淡。

  美元下跌,金价续刷历史新高

  上金所紧急通知

  4月21日,美元指数显著下跌,盘中跌破98,创近三年新低。Wind数据显示,截至收盘,美元指数下跌0.88%,报98.3518。

  商品市场方面,北京时间4月21日,现货黄金上涨2.91%,报3423.770美元/盎司,盘中站上3430美元/盎司,再创历史新高;COMEX黄金期货上涨3.21%,报3435.1美元/盎司,创历史新高。

  过去17周,现货黄金有15周上涨,仅仅2周下跌。

  21日,上海黄金交易所发布《关于继续做好近期市场风险控制工作的通知》。

  通知表示,近期贵金属价格波动剧烈。请各会员提高风险防范意识,继续做好风险应急预案,维护市场平稳运行。同时,提示投资者做好风险防范工作,合理控制仓位,理性投资。

  美国经济指标下滑

  最新数据显示,美国3月谘商会领先指标月率录得-0.7%,为2023年10月以来最大降幅。

  美国谘商会高级经理JustynaZabinska-LaMonica表示:“美国3月份经济增长指标表明,未来经济活动将放缓。”

  他指出,美国3月份经济指标下滑集中在三个方面:1)消费者预期进一步下降;2)股价创下自2022年9月以来的最大月度跌幅;3)制造业新订单疲软。

  谘商会将美国2025年的GDP增长预测下调至1.6%,略低于美国经济的潜力。预期增长率放缓反映了贸易战加剧的影响,这可能导致通胀上升、供应链中断、投资和支出减少以及劳动力市场疲软。

  特朗普:经济可能放缓,除非降息

  美联储最新回应

  消息面上,据央视新闻报道,当地时间4月21日,美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台“真实社交”上发文,再次敦促美国联邦储备委员会作出降息决定。

  特朗普在帖文中宣称“美国实际上已不存在通胀,能源、食品及其他大多数商品价格下行趋势如此显著,几乎不可能引发通胀。但如果‘太迟先生’(指美联储主席鲍威尔)不立即降息,美国经济将面临放缓风险。”

  特朗普近来频繁施压鲍威尔,要求美联储立即降息,并称鲍威尔的行动总是“又迟又错”,“越早走人越好”。

  鲍威尔当地时间4月16日在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话时说,“美国政府已宣布的关税上调幅度远超预期水平,这给美国经济带来的影响,包括推高通胀和抑制增长同样可能超出预期,令美联储货币政策制定面临更棘手局面。”他表示,“美联储在决定是否调整利率前,将继续观察加征关税及其他经济政策的实际影响。”

  盛宝银行新加坡首席投资策略师CharuChanana表示,由于地缘政治紧张局势愈演愈烈,市场情绪本已紧张,如今特朗普可能干预美联储的担忧又加剧了市场的不安。任何关于货币政策遭受政治干预的迹象,都可能削弱美联储的独立性,使利率政策前景变得更加复杂。

  美联储官员古尔斯比在接受采访时表示,短期通胀预期上升,但长期预期未上升,仍然相信利率在未来12—18个月将更低。

  对于市场高度关注的“美联储主席鲍威尔解雇风波”,古尔斯比回应称,美联储主席是委员会中最重要的人物,其意见具有举足轻重的影响力。美联储的独立性至关重要。

  当前投资者正密切评估,美联储主席鲍威尔被解职的风险。分析人士警告称,美元遭抛售的原因可能是鲍威尔面临的压力。

  特朗普政府正面临

  国内“多重暴击”

  据央视新闻报道,美国政府近期的关税政策使不少美国企业面临成本上涨压力。美国消费者正在承受越来越高的代价。

  不只是关税,特朗普政府的移民、裁员等政策也引发民众强烈不满,美国多地掀起抗议潮。第二个任期未满百日,美国总统特朗普已深陷风暴中心。

  近日,三名民主党籍前总统罕见密集发声,虽然没有点名,但美国媒体解读说,他们都是在针对特朗普政府的政策,打破美国前总统避免公开批评现任总统的惯例。

  有历史学家认为,前总统公开严厉批评现任总统本就罕见,而这三名前总统在如此短的时间内都这么做,或许史无前例。

  与此同时,特朗普政府还面临法律层面挑战,因撤销逾千名留学生签证而遭遇集体诉讼;加利福尼亚州政府指控联邦政府违法滥施关税。

  最新民调显示

  特朗普支持率降至上任以来新低

  当地时间4月21日,路透社/益普索民意调查结果显示,美国总统特朗普的公众支持率跌至他重返白宫以来的最低水平。

  在为期六天的民调中,仅有约42%的受访者认可特朗普总统的表现,低于三周前路透社/益普索民调的43%支持率,也低于特朗普1月20日就职典礼后几小时内的47%支持率。

  此外,约59%的受访者表示,美国正在丧失其在全球舞台上的信誉。还有四分之三的受访者表示,特朗普不应该竞选其第三任期。

  来源:央视新闻、证券时报·e公司、中国证券报、中国基金报

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