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风险可控,打造韧性。

果链女王,考验不断。

4月17日,蓝思科技董事长周群飞,带领团队与投资者交流,就关切的关税事宜,其称对整体经营影响非常有限。

她和高管解释说,大部分产品的出口,通过国内保税区完成,由进口方客户承担关税缴纳。

于蓝思而言,大客户苹果仍然举足轻重。因关税政策绕道,其打算转移海外制造中心库存,与全球供应链的合作,新增了不确定性。

4月7日-17日,蓝思市值,蒸发超170亿元,目前在950亿元左右。

刻下的变局,也持续考验周群飞的智慧和应对。好在她已未雨绸缪,也在慢慢褪去果链的标签。

1

风险可控

2024年,周群飞掌舵的蓝思科技,重回增长轨道,总收入698.96亿元,海外收入占总营收的58.63%。

就关税风波,蓝思管理层在17日解释,其海外业务主要为零部件和功能模组产品,大部分交付至国内保税区,可天然规避关税风险,之后由组装厂商完成组装后出口至美国。

“公司与海外客户交易,采用离岸价或向客户收取运费交货到指定目的地,由进口方客户承担关税缴纳。”管理层说。

目前,美国对智能手机、电脑等电子产品,免除“对等关税”,苹果产业链的调整,更看长期布局。

从财报数据看,公司依然依赖苹果公司。

去年其第一大客户的销售额为345.6亿元,占公司总销售额近五成。外界普遍解读,第一大客户即苹果公司。

牵一发而动全身。去年第四季度,苹果在中国地区的销量下滑25%,同期蓝思的净利也有扰动。

公司方面回应,已开展全球化布局,拥有9个研发和生产基地,会通过自身的制造能力与全球市场动态相契合,满足国际客户的供应链需求,有效抵御地缘风险。

周群飞此前也强调,已渗透到更多消费电子品牌的链条中。今年2月,公司透露,正在与小米展开深度合作。

2024年,蓝思净利创下新高,增长两成至36.24亿元,整体毛利率达到15.89%,高于行业平均。今年1-3月,盈利又猛增约4成。

AI识股

业绩大涨,除了手机和PC市场回暖,周群飞等高管解释,部分得益于推进供应链垂直整合。

蓝思正在打造涵盖设计、研发、生产的一站式ODM精密制造平台。

“通过组装业务带动结构件、功能模组等业务协同增长,提升公司整体营收与利润规模。”周群飞说。

2

押注新机

周群飞掌舵蓝思这些年,立足主业,同时紧跟下游客户的布局,拓展机会。

过去,周群飞曾为孵化第二增长极而四处出击,横向拓展汽车零部件业务。

因积累了多年精密制造经验,蓝思顺利转向新能源汽车领域,涉足电池盖板、充电桩外壳、车载传感器保护罩、中控屏幕、仪表盘等产品研发,目前与30余家新能源及豪华汽车品牌合作。

她和团队的挑战在于,新能源汽车苦陷价格战,部分降价压力传导到供应链环节。

2024年,蓝思在智能汽车及智能座舱领域的毛利率从15.46%下降至10.17%。

开年以来,智能机器人火出圈,周群飞把眼光投向更前沿的机器人及AI终端。

蓝思不仅与智元机器人合作,参与灵犀X1人形机器人核心部件的生产组装与测试控制,还自主研发六轴机器人、AOI视觉检测机器人等工业机器人,在产线上得到大量应用。

今年2月,公司与头部ai眼镜企业Rokid合作,完成从镜架、镜片、功能模组到全自动组装线的全链条生产。

周群飞和Rokid创始人祝铭明

“会充分把握AI发展机遇,推动公司成为高度垂直整合的中国最大具身智能核心制造平台。”今年3月,蓝思科技证券部门向投资人表示。

为拓宽边界,周群飞这些年还积极参与产业链上下游的战略投资,尤其是在新材料、智能制造、半导体等领域具有潜力的企业。

周氏在新兴领域的前瞻布局,为蓝思应对复杂局面,增强了腾挪空间和经营韧性。

3

多点开花

在“果链”四巨头中,蓝思最先筹划港股IPO。

3月中旬,周群飞已公告赴港上市的计划,其已提交赴港上市申请,顺利的话,预计在7月或8月登陆港交所,完成IPO。

按照公司方面的解释,此举是为了扩大全球业务布局,包括越南、泰国、墨西哥等地,增强全球交付能力,使客户群更加多元化。

募集的资金主要用于折叠屏、智能汽车外观结构件的开发、智能机器人的产能配套及研究开发、AI眼镜/XR头显等智能穿戴设备的产能建设等。

在4月17日业绩交流会上,有投资者提及,公司2021年定增约150亿元,截至2024年末还有35亿元未使用。

管理层解释,此前各募投的项目均已投产,将在智能汽车、智能穿戴、智能手机等领域贡献新的增长点。

据介绍,现在蓝思内销的比例,已达到42%。有庞大国内市场为后盾,加之更多元的全球布局,即便风云突变,周群飞也有充裕的回旋余地。

AI识股

目前,周氏连同丈夫,合计持有蓝思62.13%的股份。

据2025年胡润全球富豪榜,夫妇俩的身家高达800亿元,成为湖南新首富。

刻下,周群飞力保主业,同时多点开花,对前景信心十足。

  纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰・威廉姆斯周四表示,他认为目前没有迫切需要改变央行的利率政策,因为特朗普政府的关税措施可能会推高通货膨胀率、削弱经济增长并导致失业率上升。

  “我认为货币政策处于良好的定位,”威廉姆斯在接受福克斯商业新闻频道采访时表示。“我看不到近期有任何改变联邦基金利率设定的必要。”

  威廉姆斯同时担任制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会副主席。他在采访中指出,经济前景存在相当大的不确定性。他重申了自己的观点,即今年经济增长可能会降至1%以下,同时失业率将从目前的4.2%上升至4.5%至5%之间,因为唐纳德・特朗普总统大幅提高进口税至少在目前会加剧物价压力。

  “这还不是经济衰退,只是前景更黯淡,增长速度比过去几年要慢,”威廉姆斯说。

  这位美联储官员没有说明他预计特朗普提高进口税会使通货膨胀率上升多少,但表示“今年关税肯定会对物价和通货膨胀产生影响”。

  威廉姆斯表示,对美联储来说,确保任何这类通货膨胀的上升都不会持续下去至关重要。

  “我们需要确保任何一次性的物价变化不会演变成更持久的高通货膨胀,”他说,并补充道“我们需要让通货膨胀率回到2%……并且要持续保持这一水平。”他还表示,控制通货膨胀预期仍然很重要。

  威廉姆斯接受采访的前一天,美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔发表了讲话,这位央行领导人也警告称,关税会带来更大的物价压力。鲍威尔表示,现在是央行在调整利率之前观察经济以获取新数据的时候。

  鲍威尔的这些言论再次招致总统的斥责,尽管通货膨胀率高于目标水平,总统仍希望美联储降息。总统似乎还威胁要解除鲍威尔的职务,称其被解职“越快越好”。

  如果特朗普试图解雇鲍威尔,目前尚不清楚法律是否会支持这一举措,而且在本就不稳定的金融环境下,这几乎肯定会引发一场重大的市场危机。鲍威尔目前的美联储主席任期将持续到明年。

  总部位于旧金山的Fictiv公司已被三住集团(MisumiGroupInc.)以3.5亿美元的全现金交易收购。

  有关官员表示,此次收购将有助于三住集团拓展其数字服务并扩大客户群体。

  总部位于东京的三住集团是全球最大的现货制造零部件工业供应商之一。该公司在全球拥有22个生产基地和20个物流设施,为全球31.8万家公司生产和配送工业用品。

  该公司在一份新闻稿中称:“此次收购的目的是提升我们的数字服务……同时拓展我们的客户领域。通过收购Fictiv公司,我们将迅速提升从传统生产设备领域到价值链中产品开发上游领域所提供的价值。”

  三住集团在美国的业务布局包括一个名为美国Sugura的供应商网络,其在伊利诺伊州阿迪森设有工厂,在芝加哥以及加利福尼亚州的托伦斯设有配送中心。

  Fictiv公司成立于2013年,为美国制造业提供定制机械零部件的按需采购服务。该公司在美国、中国、印度和墨西哥设有生产运营基地,共有400名员工。

  截至目前,Fictiv公司已生产了超过3500万个商用和原型零部件,并且在全球拥有由250家制造合作伙伴组成的全球合作伙伴网络。

  2023年11月,Fictiv公司在墨西哥蒙特雷开设了一家生产工厂,旨在为整个北美地区的按需制造服务提供更多选择。

  Fictiv公司联合创始人兼首席执行官戴夫・埃文斯(DaveEvans)在一份声明中表示:“这项协议标志着Fictiv公司以及更广泛的制造业生态系统的一个重要里程碑。三住集团的投资验证了人工智能驱动的供应链创新的力量,以及我们共同的愿景,即让制造业变得更容易实现、更智能且更具可扩展性。我们携手打造一个全球平台,帮助工程和供应链团队以前所未有的速度和效率将创意变为现实。”

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