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专题:聚焦2025年IMF和世行春季年会

  国际货币基金组织周二警告称,自去年秋季以来,全球金融稳定风险显著增加,这在很大程度上是由围绕贸易政策和其他地缘政治因素的经济不确定性加剧所致。

  国际货币基金组织在其半年期的《全球金融稳定报告》中警告称,金融状况趋紧,再加上不确定性加剧,正在推高全球金融风险。

  国际货币基金组织货币和资本市场部主任托拜厄斯・阿德里安表示:“政策不确定性的总体水平有所上升……未来经济活动的预测略有下降。”

  在国际货币基金组织因美国关税的影响而下调大多数国家的增长预测之际,发出了金融风险上升的警告。

  具体而言,国际货币基金组织指出了未来可能影响金融稳定的三个脆弱点。其一,尽管近期出现抛售,但一些股票和公司债券市场的估值仍然很高,仍有进一步下跌的空间。其二,一些高杠杆金融机构,如对冲基金,在市场波动时可能会承受压力,从而加剧抛售。

  最后,更多的动荡可能会给主权债务市场带来压力,特别是对那些债务水平较高的国家。

  国际货币基金组织对其金融风险评估的最新更新是在唐纳德・特朗普总统当选以及他努力对全球贸易伙伴实施全面关税之后。该报告发布之际,国际货币基金组织和世界银行正在华盛顿开启其半年一次的会议。

  具体来说,国际货币基金组织警告称,关税动荡可能会给银行带来沉重压力,因为贸易冲击可能会迫使银行预留更多资金以应对潜在损失,如果资本市场放缓,银行的非利息收入会减少,或者贸易融资会受到干扰,而贸易融资是全球银行180亿美元收入的驱动因素。

  报告称:“贸易融资依赖稳定的现金流、供应链和监管框架,而这些都可能因关税的突然变化而受到干扰。”

  为应对这些风险,国际货币基金组织再次呼吁全球监管机构确保银行拥有足够的资本和流动性,包括通过实施关于更高资本标准的全球“巴塞尔协议III”。

  具体而言,国际货币基金组织呼吁“全面、及时和一致地实施”这些新的资本标准,而此时美国监管机构已放弃此前实施这些规则的尝试,转而可能试图制定一种对银行新增资本负担最小的新标准。

  国际货币基金组织还呼吁对银行进行“独立和强化”监管,尤其要高度关注银行与不受类似审查的非银行机构之间的相互作用。

  国际货币基金组织在报告中表示:“不同司法管辖区之间日益增强的相互关联性意味着,来自特定司法管辖区的压力可能会产生全球影响,这就要求其他地区做好准备。这凸显了多边监测和全球金融安全网在迅速有效降低金融风险方面的关键作用。”

  国际货币基金组织在报告中还警告称,国际活跃的非美国银行可能会因波动性加剧和地缘政治事件而面临美元融资压力。路透社此前报道称,一些欧洲央行和监管官员正在质疑,在市场压力时期,他们是否还能依赖美国联邦储备委员会提供美元资金。

  美国财政部发行690亿美元2年期国债中标收益率报3.795%,为9月以来最低,美东时间下午1点投标截止时的发行前交易水平为3.789%,不过临近发行之际收益率上升大约5个基点。招标结果公布后收益率小幅走高,基准2年期国债收益率触及3.817%的日内高点。

  一级交易商获配13.7%,高于之前一次;间接投标人获配比例下降至56.2%,直接投标人获配比例升至30.1%,是2004年跟踪该数据以来的最高水平之一。

  投标倍数2.52倍,前六次均值为2.65倍。

  新浪财经北美站康路实习生罗心迪

  国际货币基金组织(IMF)与世界银行(WBG)2025年春季年会于4月21日至4月26日在位于美国华盛顿特区的两机构总部举办。新浪财经作为官方媒体合作伙伴到会报道。

  春会期间,第29届联合国气候变化大会(COP29)主席、阿塞拜疆生态与自然资源部部长穆赫塔尔·巴巴耶夫在讨论中公开表示,当前虽非全球合作的“黄金年代”,但气候议题依然是各国最有可能取得共识的领域。

  “新冠时期的经验告诉我们,危机中也能协作。现在应当把握窗口期,在能源安全与绿色转型之间建立更强的耦合机制。”他指出。

  他以中亚-欧洲绿色能源走廊为例,倡导以跨境可再生能源输送项目为依托,在生产国与消费国之间建立基础设施、政策和投资机制三位一体的合作体系。近日,阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦与亚洲开发银行和亚洲基础设施投资银行签署谅解备忘录,为其向欧洲出口可再生电力寻求资金,标志着中亚-欧洲绿色能源走廊项目在融资方面迈出了重要一步。

  COP29主席、阿塞拜疆生态与自然资源部部长穆赫塔尔·巴巴耶夫强调,全球气候治理的瓶颈不是技术,而是政策协调与融资匹配的“落地机制”。未来几个月,COP30与多边开发机构将在该框架下推出一批具体合作提案。

  “我们要做的不仅是对话,而是建立执行平台,让气候融资流向真正需要的地方。”他总结道。

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