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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
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  欧洲保险监管机构负责人表示,美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动正使其避险地位受到质疑。

  据知情人士透露,欧洲保险和职业养老金管理局(EIOPA)主席PetraHielkema上周在代表欧盟金融监管机构所作的一场简报中发表了上述言论。

  在闭门会议上的这一表态凸显出市场对美国国债的担忧情绪。美国国债长期以来被视为全球“无风险”资产,并作为全球每日数以万亿美元贷款交易的抵押品。尽管目前没有迹象显示欧洲监管机构正在采取任何具体行动,但这番言论表明,外界对美债的看法在短短数周内发生了巨大转变。

  美国国债市场近来出现剧烈波动。在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提出全面关税政策、给全球贸易造成严重威胁并可能导致经济陷入衰退之际,上周10年期国债收益率创下20年来最大涨幅。与此同时,投资者纷纷转向其他避险资产,如黄金、德国国债以及欧元。

  推荐阅读:避险资产世界似乎多了选择美国国债面临“竞品”挑战

  在法兰克福的EIOPA周四没有立即回复寻求置评的电话和电子邮件。

  尽管美国运通公司第一季度业绩超出预期,但其股价在早盘中仍面临下行压力。

  美国运通公布的每股收益为3.64美元,营收为169.7亿美元。路孚特(LSEG)调查的分析师此前预期每股收益为3.46美元,营收为169.4亿美元。

  然而,尽管第一季度业绩表现强劲,该公司仍维持了全年的营收和盈利预期。根据财经新闻平台StreetAccount的数据,该公司非利息收入为128亿美元,也略低于分析师预期的128.6亿美元。

  该公司股价在早盘交易中下跌了约1.2%。

  来源:里克・纽曼高级专栏作家

  这不是美国的好年景。

  在一场极具破坏性的贸易战、动荡的股票市场以及全球范围内对美国资产的抛售潮中,又出现了一个新的警告:庞大的债务水平和政治功能失调可能会导致美国曾经坚如磐石的信用评级再次被下调。

  在4月14日的一份报告中,标普全球评级公司暗示,如果一系列可能使美国财政状况恶化的情况中有任何一种发生,它可能会将美国目前为AA+的信用评级再下调一个等级。而且很有可能其中一些情况真的会发生。

  标普在这份财政信用分析报告中用典型的隐晦语言表示:“未来几个月美国政府预算程序和政策谈判的结果,将有助于确定相关政策,这些政策会影响我们对美国主权信用的看法。这些讨论可能会影响我们对美国财政状况的评估。”

  早在2011年,在国会就提高美国债务上限问题陷入僵局,几乎导致美国财政部无法支付账单之后,标普成为了首个下调美国信用评级的机构。当时,美国国债总额约为15万亿美元,公众持有的部分占国内生产总值(GDP)的66%。

  如今,美国国债已达36万亿美元,公众持有的部分约占GDP的100%。日益恶化的债务前景促使惠誉将美国信用评级从AAA下调至AA+。同年,穆迪将美国信用评级展望从稳定调整为负面。

  今年3月,穆迪警告称,由于利率上升,美国政府为债务融资的成本不断膨胀。该机构表示:“美国的财政实力将连续多年持续下降。”

  标普对特朗普总统及其共和党同僚在国会推动的政策存在诸多担忧。除了政府债务规模庞大之外,该机构还提到了国会共和党人正在考虑的一种预算伎俩,这是目前正在国会山推进的大规模减税法案的一部分。这种被称为“现行政策基线”会计方法的伎俩,将大幅低估减税会增加的债务数额,甚至允许通过借贷来进行比国会在不使用这种手段时所能实现的更大规模的减税。

  标普表示:“在预算决议和协调程序中采用前所未有的会计方法,加剧了对未来赤字规模的不确定性。”这听起来像是对标普对立法者的一个强烈暗示:要是做假账,你们的评级就会下调。

  标普向国会传达的另一个信息与债务上限有关,今年夏天的某个时候,立法者将不得不提高债务上限。标普乐观地表示:“我们预计国会将及时采取行动,通过某种形式的立法,在财政部资金耗尽之前提高或暂停债务上限。”言下之意:重蹈2011年的僵局,再次出现违约威胁,那可真是个糟糕透顶的主意。

  其他担忧还包括特朗普的关税政策。大多数预测人士预计,关税将推高成本和物价,减缓经济增长,并导致失业率上升。一些人认为,特朗普的保护主义甚至可能引发经济衰退。经济衰退对联邦预算来说总是不利的,因为企业和个人税收收入会下降,而国会通常会通过财政刺激措施来加速经济复苏。从历史上看,最大的预算赤字往往出现在经济衰退时期。

  标普还提到了特朗普计划驱逐数千名移民所带来的不确定性。这将使大量劳动力流失,在一个已经面临劳动力短缺的经济体中进一步抑制经济增长。该机构指出,“与其他信用评级类似的国家相比,(美国)政治两极分化程度已经更高,而且在获得两党合作以增强美国财政动力方面存在困难”。

  2011年标普下调美国信用评级时,引发了股票市场的大规模抛售,并引发了人们对债务危机的担忧,因为这可能会使美国政府的借贷成本上升。但最终并没有出现债务危机。美国财政部继续以全球最低的一些利率发行国债,这意味着投资者仍然认为美国信用度极高,并且认为购买美国国债不存在异常风险。

  这种情况可能终于要改变了。在过去几周里,特朗普对价值数千亿美元的进口商品大幅征关税,这开始改变全球投资流向,似乎表明投资者对美国作为经济避风港的信心正在丧失。投资者同时在抛售美国股票和美国国债,鉴于国债通常是投资者逃离股票等风险资产时首选的安全资产,这种关联非常罕见。

  如果标普真的再次下调美国信用评级,尤其是如果穆迪在3月暗示的评级下调也同时发生,那么“抛售美国资产”的趋势可能会愈演愈烈。美国经济虽然强劲,但也无法抵御政客们无休止的不当行为。本就艰难的一年,情况可能还会变得更糟。

  来源:中国新闻社

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