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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
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汕尾市(海丰县、陆河县、陆丰市、城区)








铁岭市(调兵山市、昌图县、清河区、银州区、开原市、西丰县、铁岭县)








莆田市(荔城区、涵江区、城厢区、秀屿区、仙游县)








北京市(怀柔区、密云区、海淀区、门头沟区、大兴区、顺义区、昌平区、房山区、东城区、丰台区、石景山区、延庆区、通州区、朝阳区、平谷区、西城区)








绍兴市(柯桥区、诸暨市、嵊州市、上虞区、新昌县、越城区)








长治市(长子县、襄垣县、武乡县、潞州区、平顺县、壶关县、沁源县、上党区、潞城区、黎城县、沁县、屯留区)








自贡市(大安区、贡井区、荣县、沿滩区、富顺县、自流井区)








娄底市(冷水江市、娄星区、新化县、涟源市、双峰县)








延安市(黄龙县、甘泉县、延长县、宜川县、志丹县、富县、吴起县、子长市、黄陵县、洛川县、延川县、宝塔区、安塞区)








黔西南布依族苗族自治州(安龙县、普安县、兴义市、兴仁市、贞丰县、册亨县、望谟县、晴隆县)








太原市(娄烦县、尖草坪区、清徐县、晋源区、小店区、古交市、迎泽区、阳曲县、万柏林区、杏花岭区)








绥化市(望奎县、北林区、肇东市、安达市、海伦市、绥棱县、明水县、庆安县、兰西县、青冈县)








乐山市(沐川县、峨边彝族自治县、马边彝族自治县、沙湾区、夹江县、犍为县、市中区、峨眉山市、井研县、五通桥区、金口河区)

  市场回顾与分析

  一级市场回顾

  上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为4350亿、2006亿和1406亿,净融资额为3800亿、1227亿和1406亿。金融债(不含政金债)共计发行规模302亿,净融资额-224亿。非金信用债共计发行规模4082亿,净融资额920亿。暂无可转债新券发行。

  二级市场回顾

  上周债市窄幅震荡,曲线整体走平。主要影响因素包括:资金面、经济金融数据、美国政策波动等。

  流动性跟踪

  上周央行净投放流动性,对冲MLF到期和税期,资金面表现均衡。最终R001和R007分别较前周上行3.8BP和上行1BP。

  政策与基本面

  3月经济金融数据表现超预期,但市场对二季度后经济走势仍有担忧。高频数据来看:高频生产指标分化中上游强下游弱,房地产、出口景气度下行,油价回升、金价上涨。

  海外市场

  美与多国贸易谈判开始,海外市场波动率有所回落。10年期美债收盘在4.34%,较前周下行14BP。

  权益市场

  上周上证指数周一至周四连阳,国家队托底意图明显,相比之下,创业板表现稍弱。具体看,上周万得全A上涨0.39%,上证50上涨1.45%,沪深300上涨0.59%,创业板指下跌0.64%。上周A股成交量大幅缩量,日均成交额1.11万亿,周度日均成交量大幅减少5023亿。截至2025年4月17日,全A融资余额18023.00亿,较4月10日减少85.99亿元。

  债市策略展望

  债市再度进入观察震荡期,等待海内外事件的进一步发酵。当前宏观面较为复杂,市场缺乏明确方向。二季度将持续跟踪两件重点事项,一是中美关税谈判的后续进展,随着双方关税上升至100%以上,关税进一步加码已无实际意义,市场更关心中美潜在的协商进程,中美双方已阶段性释放谈判善意;二是,国内政策潜在加码的力度和方向,4月政治局会议作为季初讨论经济的会议,将成为市场观察年中政策基调的重要窗口,相比于往年的货币先行财政后至,本次财政可能更为积极,而货币的宽松更多是配合和被动的。在市场等待期间,市场偏好趋于摇摆,债市或维持震荡运行。考虑到二季度资金松紧情况一般好于一季度,对于负债端稳定的机构可关注5Y及以上长久期信用债的配置机会,当前长久期信用利差仍有较高压缩空间,信用债行情有望从中短久期轮动到长久期。转债方面,短期消息面频繁出现,给市场带来扰动。在进入到基本面定价阶段之前,市场阶段性的定价可能集中在关税博弈的拉扯摇摆、国内货币和内需政策的期待上,关注政策演绎。

  风险提示:本材料的信息均来源于已公开的资料,对信息的准确性、完整性或可靠性不作任何保证。本材料中的观点、分析仅代表公司研究团队观点,在任何情况下本文中的信息或表达的意见并不构成实际投资结果,也不构成任何对投资人的投资建议和担保。任何媒体、网站、个人未经本公司授权不得转载。

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