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  在美国政府债券市场上周剧烈抛售引发投资者与白宫担忧后,投资者正密切关注美国信用市场是否将出现进一步动荡。尽管市场情绪略有回稳,对于特朗普关税政策的最终走向及其对经济的潜在冲击,市场仍心存忧虑。

  长债收益率飙升引发震荡

  近期,美国长期国债收益率飙升,打乱了投资者的预期,并迫使特朗普在4月2日所宣布的部分关税措施上“踩刹车”。尽管如此,其贸易战言论已引发中国迅速反制,使得美国经济衰退的担忧升温,甚至引发外资对美资资产的兴趣降温。

  不过,从当前来看,信用市场已逐步恢复开放,尤其是面向大型企业的债券融资渠道有所回暖。然而,市场的不安情绪仍未完全消散。

  IncomeResearch+Management资深投资经理ScottPike表示:“我们认为现在还不是降低信用评级(即投资风险)的时机。他指出,信用市场迄今的反应仍属“相对温和”。“我们会密切关注关税真正开始产生实质性影响、并反映在经济数据中的时点。”

  “无风险”资产也未能幸免

  上周的抛售潮主要集中在美国29万亿美元规模的国债市场中,被视为“无风险资产”的长期债券大幅下跌。同时,一些“基差交易”也受到冲击,蔓延至更广泛的债券市场,导致信用利差显著扩大。

  信用利差通常以基点计价,代表债券收益率相较于无风险利率(如美国国债)的溢价水平。利差的大幅波动,通常被视为投资者情绪的实时晴雨表。

  根据德意志银行分析师的数据,近期高收益“垃圾债”受冲击最为严重,其他依赖债市融资的领域也面临利差扩张。汽车债券等周期性行业的债券价格下跌幅度,甚至超过整体债市指数的表现。

  尽管如此,麦迪逊投资公司固定收益主管MikeSanders表示,当前股票与债市仍未跌至反映“极端关税风险”或“即将到来的衰退”水平。“我认为,最糟糕的关税结果基本上已经过去了,”Sanders说,“我们仍需面对这些决策带来的后果。”

  股债双跌,但尚未崩盘

  截至周二,标普500指数较2月创下的历史高点下跌约12%,尚未跌入熊市区间(即下跌20%)。而纳斯达克指数则表现更弱,跌幅超过标普。

  在债券市场方面,高收益债利差一度在4月7日飙升至460个基点,创近两年来新高,随后有所回落。投资级企业债的利差则一度攀升至120个基点。

  “市场波动很大,但我不认为市场已反映出非常负面的预期,”Sanders表示。他建议,当前收益率约5%的高评级债券,是规避风险的理想选择,尤其在特朗普宣布暂停全球关税90天、试图进行贸易谈判的背景下。

  若经济陷入“自我诱发”衰退,美联储或被迫降息

  市场普遍预计,若贸易政策导致经济陷入放缓甚至“自我诱发的衰退”,美联储可能不得不重新启动降息周期。这一预期也支撑了当前债券价格的稳定,因为较高票息的债券在降息环境中会更具吸引力。

  ManulifeJohnHancockInvestments联合首席投资策略师EmilyRoland指出,当前经济数据呈现出“软数据疲弱,硬数据稳定”的二元结构。她表示:“虽然情绪类数据不佳,但就业等‘硬数据’仍显示经济基本面稳固。”

  与此同时,尽管花旗、摩根大通、高盛等大型银行所发行的公司债利差有所上升,但并未出现明显的违约担忧,亦未反映出严重的衰退风险。

  Roland指出:“若高收益债的利差攀升至600至800个基点,那才更符合衰退恐慌的信号。信用利差往往是煤矿中的金丝雀,如果流动性出现问题,或违约风险迅速上升,它们是最早发出警告的指标。眼下我们还没有看到那种情况。”

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