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兽人VS人马,发现她们的真实故事与独特魅力,展现女性的力量与优雅。

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作者| MikeZaccardi,CFA,CMT

编译|华尔街大事件

由于关税形势出现新变化,福特( NYSE: F )股价在过去几周出现大幅波动。目前股息收益率超过6.5%,对一些投资者来说可能具有吸引力。然而,值得注意的是,贝莱德的LarryFink 、摩根大通的JamieDimon等许多顶级金融高管都警告称,不久的将来可能会出现美国经济衰退或放缓。福特是一只周期性很强的股票,在美国经济放缓期间从未表现良好。在大衰退和互联网泡沫破灭期间,福特的股价下跌了70%-80%。福特超过50%的交付是在国际市场上。供应链也依赖于与不同地区的贸易。即使关税小幅上调也可能导致公司盈利能力大幅下降。

一些看涨分析师指出,第一任期内将出现“特朗普看跌期权”效应,这意味着白宫将确保不会出现严重的美国经济衰退,因为它会对股市和债市产生影响。然而,即使是经济的小幅放缓也可能对福特产生重大影响。这反映在广泛的预期每股收益预测中。截至2027年12月的财年,福特股票的预期市盈率为5.8倍,但最低每股收益预测为0.85美元,最高每股收益预测几乎是3倍,为2.3美元。这些预测大多是在最近的关税战之前做出的。未来预期每股收益可能会进一步分化。这种不确定性给股价带来了巨大的风险。

短期内,大量每股收益下调可能会损害股票市场人气。福特汽车过去三个月内有19次每股收益下调,而只有1次上调。这将在未来几个季度继续损害该股的市场人气。

关税形势对福特来说尤其危险,因为其供应链非常多元化。2024年,福特在美国交付了220万辆汽车,而其全球总销量为447万辆。因此,福特超过一半的汽车销往国际市场。关税战中的任何针锋相对都不可避免地会损害福特的利润率。即使毛利率略有下降,也可能对每股收益造成巨大影响。

福特是一只周期性股票,在美国经济放缓时期表现从未出色。在之前的几次美国经济衰退中,包括上世纪90年代初、互联网泡沫破灭以及大衰退,福特股价都经历了70%-80%的大幅回调。如果未来几个季度经济放缓,福特很可能会面临巨大的逆风。许多顶级财务高管已经开始警告消费者信心下降,并提到一些公司正在限制资本支出。这可能会成为一个自我实现的预言,而更高的关税环境可能会导致滞胀。

在即将召开的财报电话会议上,听取科技公司高管对其资本支出预测的意见至关重要。亚马逊此前已将其资本支出预测上调至1000亿美元,而谷歌则宣布其资本支出为750亿美元。这些数字非常庞大,任何资本支出的削减都可能对GDP增长数据产生负面影响。同样,其他大型科技公司也宣布了巨额资本支出计划。如果他们开始撤出这些大型投资,我们可能会看到美国经济放缓的强烈信号。

福特的股息收益率高达6.5%,这是吸引众多投资者的关键原因之一。但任何美国经济放缓或衰退都会立即迫使福特管理层削减股息并节省现金。在当前经济不确定的时期,寻求更高收益率的投资者可能会选择更具防御性的电信股。

分析人士提到了第一任期内的“特朗普看跌期权”效应。这意味着白宫的任何重大政策决定都将确保股市和债市不会受到不利影响。然而,即使在第一任期内,福特股价在2017年至2019年底期间也下跌了30%以上。所有国家的关税税率也不太可能恢复到之前的水平。即使关税只增加几个百分点,也会对福特微薄的利润率造成重大影响。

从上图我们可以看出,福特的毛利率远低于通用汽车或比亚迪。即使关税导致毛利率下降几个百分点,也可能对未来几个季度的每股收益产生重大影响。

从预期市盈率来看,该股股价可能颇具吸引力。然而,我们也应该关注该公司巨额的债务。对于像福特这样的成熟公司来说,关注预期每股收益预测的巨大差异也至关重要。

分析师预计,截至2026年12月的财年,每股收益将在1.06美元至1.86美元之间。截至2027年12月的财年,分析师预计每股收益将在0.85美元至2.30美元之间。因此,最高每股收益预期是最低每股收益预期的2.7倍。这些预期中有许多是在关税影响之前做出的。未来几周,我们可能会看到预期每股收益预期出现更大的差异。这增加了投资者的风险,并损害了人们对该股的信心。

过去几周,福特股价的每股收益(EPS)修正值迅速下调。许多金融高管也越来越多地警告称,美国经济放缓或衰退的可能性正在加大。在美国经济放缓时期,福特股价表现不佳。在过去几次重大美国经济衰退中,福特股价已出现70%-80%的回调。

即使关税税率小幅上调,也可能损害福特的供应链。如果该公司无法将这笔额外成本转嫁给客户,我们可能会看到其利润率进一步下降。福特的预期市盈率相当低,其6.5%的股息收益率颇具吸引力。但我们也应该关注其巨额债务。预期每股收益预测差异巨大,反映出预期收益缺乏确定性。这增加了投资者的风险,我们可能会看到股价在这些不利因素的影响下进一步回调。

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