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4月16日,我国经济一季度“成绩单”发布。

记者从国务院新闻办举行的新闻发布会获悉,经初步核算,一季度国内生产总值达318758亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长5.4%,较上年四季度环比增长1.2%。分产业看,第一产业增加值为11713亿元,同比增长3.5%;第二产业增加值111903亿元,增长5.9%;第三产业增加值195142亿元,增长5.3%。

“今年一季度经济开局良好,高质量发展向新向好,彰显了中国经济强大的韧性和潜力。”国家统计局副局长盛来运说。

高质量发展向新向好

3月11日,在安徽元隽氢能科技股份有限公司拍摄的氢燃料电池。

今年以来,国际环境变乱交织,不利影响加深,国内结构调整阵痛仍在释放,不少企业经营比较困难。面对复杂的局面,一季度,国民经济起步平稳、开局良好,高质量发展向新向好。从统计数据来看,亮点多多。

“一季度GDP同比增长5.4%,增速高于去年全国5%的增速,也高于去年一季度5.3%的增速,在全球主要经济体中名列前茅,延续了去年以来持续稳中向好、稳中回升的态势。”盛来运介绍道,生产需求指标加快回升,全部工业增加值增长6.3%,比去年全年回升0.6个百分点;服务业增加值增长5.3%,回升0.3个百分点;固定资产投资增长4.2%,比去年全年回升1个百分点;社会消费品零售总额增长4.6%,回升1.1个百分点。

一季度,全国城镇调查失业率指标是5.3%,3月份是5.2%,比上月回落0.2个百分点。全国居民人均可支配收入扣除物价因素,实际增长5.6%,与GDP增长基本同步。

在国际收支方面,一季度,全球经济增长动能偏弱,但我国进出口保持基本平稳的态势,一季度货物贸易进出口同比增长1.3%,出口增长6.9%;1-2月份,服务进出口增长9.9%;3月末,外汇储备余额保持在3.2万亿美元以上。“这是非常不容易的,2月份以来国际贸易限制增多,出口保持6.9%的速度,显示了中国出口的韧性。”盛来运说。

盛来运同时指出,在实现量的合理增长的同时,新质生产力培育壮大,高质量发展向新向好的大势没有改变。众多科技成果不断突破,带动一季度高技术产业加快成长。一季度,规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.7%。绿色发展持续推进。一季度,非化石能源消费占能源消费总量的比重同比提高了1.5个百分点。高水平对外开放稳步扩大,民生保障持续加力。

3月份,制造业采购经理人指数是50.5%,比上月上升了0.3个百分点,连续两个月回升。一些实物量指标显示生产要素支撑作用在增强。一季度货运量同比加快;3月末,人民币贷款余额增长7.4%,社会融资规模存量8.4%,有力有效支撑了经济增长回升向好。

盛来运指出,去年9月26日,中央政治局会议果断部署了一揽子增量政策,对稳定经济发挥了关键作用,中央经济工作会议部署要求宏观政策更加积极有为,今年以来政策措施加力扩围,存量政策和增量政策共同显效,推动今年一季度经济开局良好。与此同时,各地区、各部门认真贯彻落实党中央决策部署,抓早抓实,抢抓开局,抢抓出口,抢抓机遇,有力有效带动了生产需求回升。此外,我国大力推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合,科技成果持续涌现,并不断加快转化应用,经济新动能不断成长。

10.3万亿元!

大批国产汽车在山东港口烟台港集结等待装船出口(无人机照片)。

4月14日,海关总署发布数据:今年一季度,我国货物贸易进出口10.3万亿元,累计增速由负转正,同比增长1.3%;月度增速逐渐回暖,从1月份同比下降2.2%,到2月份基本持平,再到3月份增长6%,一季度我国进出口增速走出一条上扬线。

最值得一提的是,一季度,我国有进出口实绩的企业达到52.9万家,比去年同期增加3.3万家。其中,民营企业数量创下历史同期新高,占同期有进出口实绩企业总数的86.1%,进出口5.85万亿元,同比增长5.8%;外资企业数量创近3年同期新高,进出口2.99万亿元,连续4个季度实现增长。

国家信息中心大数据发展部大数据分析处处长杨道玲在中新社国是直通车举办的“2025年一季度经济形势分析会”上指出,一季度反映外贸活跃度的相关指标也稳中有升。比如,一季度全国主要港口的日均集装箱吞吐量同比增长10.6%,货物吞吐量同比增长3.1%,一季度日均国际货运航班的数量同比增长35.9%。保税区人流量指数同比上升18.8%。主要外贸港口船舶到离港数据监测发现,3月份滚装货船日均离港同比增长了8.1%,已经连续实现了13个月的稳步增长。

进出口规模连续8个季度超过10万亿元;一季度出口规模突破6万亿元,增速比前两个月加快3.5个百分点至6.9%,对170多个国家和地区出口实现增长……多项数据呈现的积极变化,成为我国外贸规模增长、质量提升的有力见证。

海关总署副署长王令浚表示,总的来看,各地各部门和广大外贸经营主体积极应对,推动一季度我国外贸进出口实现平稳开局。

“尽管当前我国出口面临复杂严峻外部形势,但我国积极构建多元化市场,深化产业链供应链合作,同时内需市场广阔,将以自身确定性应对外部不确定性。”海关总署新闻发言人、统计分析司司长吕大良说。

消费企稳态势延续

4月4日,游客在重庆市酉阳土家族苗族自治县桃花源景区踏青赏花。

消费不仅关系民生福祉,也关系经济发展。3月16日,中共中央办公厅和国务院办公厅联合印发《提振消费专项行动方案》,为进一步提振消费提供政策保障。

4月15日,中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强在北京调研时强调,要深入贯彻习近平总书记关于全方位扩大国内需求的重要指示精神,沉着冷静应对外部冲击带来的困难挑战,以更大力度促进消费、扩大内需、做强国内大循环,进一步释放我国超大规模市场的活力潜力。

“经过40多年改革开放的积累和发展,中国现在是世界第二大经济体,连续15年稳居第一制造业大国的地位,产业体系完整、配套能力强,经济发展底盘稳、基础牢。”在今日举办的国务院新闻发布会上盛来运指出,同时,中国有14亿多人口,市场规模巨大,现在人均GDP超过1.3万美元,正处在消费升级的关键阶段,市场成长性好,无论是投资还是消费空间都非常大,将支撑中国经济持续发展。

作为衡量消费的主要指标,一季度社会消费品零售总额达到12.5万亿元,同比增长4.6%,比去年全年加快1.1个百分点。“这是实现消费市场发展企稳的重要标志。”国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所原所长、二级研究员王微在中新社国是直通车举办的“2025年一季度经济形势分析会”上分析指出,与此同时,“稳”的基础也在变好。从居民收入看,一季度居民收入增长跑赢国内生产总值,就业形势总体稳定,收入水平改善,国家提高低收入居民消费能力的政策也在加快落实,为提振消费提供了稳的基础。

从一季度数据来看,在提振消费相关政策的支撑下,服务消费增长加快。一季度,服务零售额同比增长5%,比商品零售快了0.4个百分点。与消费结构升级相关的消费增长更快,保持两位数增长。一季度,居民人均交通通信支出同比增长10.4%,教育文化娱乐支出增长13.9%。另外,受春节、清明节等假期影响,出行人数大幅增加,出行相关的服务消费保持两位数增长,一季度居民人均服务性消费支出同比增长5.4%,占全部居民人均消费支出的比重达到43.4%,比去年同期提高0.1个百分点。此外,商品零售增长较快。在“两新”“两重”政策支撑下,带动相关消费品保持两位数增长。

在王微看来,一季度国内消费企稳态势延续,结构调整向上,向新势头不改,政策加力显效。

“消费是收入的函数,要大力提振消费,也要大力促进消费能力的提升。下一步,我们要按照党中央、国务院决策部署,认真落实好《提振消费专项行动方案》,积极稳就业、促增收、减负担,提升居民消费能力,大力增加优质消费供给,持续释放消费潜力,不断优化消费环境,增强消费意愿,促进国民经济持续向好发展。”盛来运说。

房地产市场继续延续止跌回稳走势

最新的70个大中城市房价监测数据显示,三月份无论是一线城市还是二三线城市,无论是新房还是二手房,价格均有积极变化。三月份一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比上涨,二线、三线城市住宅销售价格环比降幅收窄。

“在政策的作用下,房地产市场继续延续止跌回稳走势,市场交易继续改善。”盛来运指出,从去年四季度以来,综合来看,政策效应持续显现。一季度,全国新建商品房销售面积下降3%,比去年全年收窄9.9个百分点,比1-2月份降幅收窄2.1个百分点;销售额下降2.1%,降幅比去年全年收窄15个百分点,比1-2月份收窄0.5个百分点。40个重点城市监测情况看,一季度新建商品房销售面积和销售额分别增长1.2%和4.4%。一线城市整体表现较好,一季度新建商品房销售面积增长0.6%,市场交易趋于活跃。

“当前,房地产市场保持持续向好态势,目前正向结构性止跌回稳方向迈进。”中国社会科学院长城学者、城市与竞争力研究中心主任倪鹏飞表示,这是因为楼市的四大决定性因素开始出现良性循环。一是房地产本身,多项指标跌幅收窄;二是一揽子增量政策陆续出台,宏观经济环境向好;三是市场预期逐步得到修复;四是楼市负向循环被打破,这些因素相互作用,使得房地产有了持续正向发展的条件。

在倪鹏飞看来,房地产市场止跌回稳的基础还有待夯实。未来持续实现止跌回稳目标,应做四方面工作。一是对购房者要减负,二是“好房子”的配套要进一步完善,三是存量商品房收购要加力,四是注入优质资源激发购房潜力。

图片来源:新华社

责编:张利娟

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