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老赵孙潇潇老树开花:畅游在欲望与幻想的无尽海洋
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老赵孙潇潇老树开花:畅游在欲望与幻想的无尽海洋

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在近日美股持续震荡、美债遭大量抛售、美元不断走弱的背景下,投资者连续两日涌入加密货币市场。比特币自3月以来首次收复9万美元关口。

截至发稿,比特币最新价格约为9,3405.44美元,涨幅约3%,两日累计涨幅超6%。早些时候,其价格一度飙升至93,955美元,创下3月6日以来的新高,较4月低点已反弹超20%。

本周比特币的大幅上涨,恰逢美股周一再次遭遇抛售潮,股债汇三杀。特朗普加大了对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的施压力度,要求其立即降息,同时特朗普政府正在研究能否在鲍威尔2026年5月任期结束前合法将其解职。不过到了周二,美股基本收复了前一交易日的大部分失地。

周一,追踪比特币现货价格的美国交易所交易基金(ETF)资金流入达3.814亿美元,创下1月30日(当日资金流入5.882亿美元)以来的最大单日流入量,也是过去五个交易日中第四次出现资金净流入。

本月早些时候,比特币还极易受到关税引发的股票波动影响,但在过去一周左右的时间里,它已逐渐与风险资产脱钩。截至周二,比特币4月涨幅已超10%,超过同期黄金8%的涨幅,而标普500指数和美元指数本月均已累计下跌5%。

CompassPoint分析师埃德·恩格尔在周二的一份报告中指出:“比特币持续展现出韧性。从历史数据来看,在宏观经济抛售潮中,比特币与股票市场的相关性通常接近1.0,但目前其与标普500指数的30日相关性仅为0.65。”

他还补充道:“尽管我们对比特币近期与风险资产脱钩的表现持乐观态度,但需注意其此轮上涨伴随的是交易量清淡。这让我们对其能否在缺乏美联储降息、关税协议等重大催化剂的情况下突破9.3万美元阻力位存疑。不过,比特币的长期持有者依旧坚定,且随着比特币流动性下降,比特币大户Strategy买入量有所增加……这些因素有望在股票市场和债券市场波动时,继续支撑比特币的韧性。”

FairleadStrategies图表分析师凯蒂·斯托克顿表示,8.8万美元是比特币的关键阻力位。她认为,一旦成功突破这一关口,对比特币的短期走势将是个积极信号,届时其下一个阻力位将在9.59万美元附近。

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