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  美银的一项调查显示,投资者对经济前景的悲观程度创三十年来的最高,但基金经理的悲观情绪尚未完全反映在资产配置中,这可能意味着美国股票市场将面临进一步的下跌。

  基金经理相当悲观,接受美银月度调查的82%的受访者预计,全球经济将走弱。调查显示,因此有创纪录数量的受访者打算减少美股敞口。

  以MichaelHartnett为首的分析师在一份报告中写道,基金经理“对宏观形势极度悲观,但对市场尚未极度悲观”。他们补充道,“恐惧峰值”尚未反映在现金配置中,目前现金配置占资产的4.8%,通常需要上升至6%。

  美国贸易政策高度不确定,金融市场波动加剧,令股票投资者感到不安。受访者4月份对美国股票为36%净减持,而2月份为17%增持,两个月跌幅创有史以来的最大。

  资料来源:美国银行

  由于担心美国总统特朗普的贸易战将损害经济增长,美国股票市场今年表现落后,42%的受访者表示,美国可能面临衰退。

  标普500指数已从本月低点反弹,但年初至今下跌8.1%,落后于欧洲和中国基准指数。美银策略师预计,短期内料守住4月低点,并警告称,“大幅上涨需要大幅减少关税、美联储大幅降息,及/或经济数据表现坚韧。”

  此项全球调查在4月4日至10日进行,共有164名参与者,管理资产总规模达3860亿美元。

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