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  汇通财经APP讯——美国总统特朗普周一在TruthSocial发文,再次猛烈抨击美联储主席鲍威尔,称其为“彻底失败者”,并要求其立即降息,否则将面临经济放缓风险。此举加剧市场对美联储独立性的担忧,投资者担心货币政策将受政治干预。

  白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特上周五表示,总统及其团队正在研究是否有可能解雇鲍威尔。

  这番言论恰逢鲍威尔此前强调在评估政策方向时需要保持耐心,并指出在通胀前景未明朗前,不宜贸然降息。这一“观望”立场与特朗普的激进降息呼声形成鲜明对比。

  市场担忧政策失衡,美元兑主要货币持续走软

  美元在周二亚洲时段持续承压,兑瑞士法郎报0.8095,接近前一交易日创下的十年低点0.8042;兑欧元报1.1502,略低于周一所触及的2021年11月以来高点1.1573。兑日元则报140.99,距离周一所创七个月低点140.48不远。

  美元指数(DXY)最新报98.454,低于周一录得的97.923,为2022年3月以来最低水平,反映出美元整体在全球市场中失去支撑。

  澳大利亚联邦银行国际经济部主管JosephCapurso指出:“只要外界继续怀疑美联储的政策独立性,美元下行压力就不会消退。”

  贸易担忧情绪叠加,全球市场避险升温

  除政策不确定性外,贸易担忧情绪也再度升温。市场对美国与其他国家之间的紧张局势可能长期拖累全球经济表现深感不安。

  NorthStar投资管理公司首席投资官EricKuby指出:“如果特朗普试图撤换鲍威尔,将引发美元市场真正的恐慌。”

  非美货币普遍走强,澳元、英镑领涨

  风险敏感型货币方面,澳元周一一度升至四个月高点0.6436,当前维持在0.6414附近。英镑稳定在1.3376,略低于周一创下的2024年9月以来高点1.3421。

  市场普遍预计,除非美国政府调整其对美联储及国际贸易立场,否则美元将维持在弱势格局,波动性可能进一步加剧。

  编辑观点:

  当前美元面临的是罕见的“双重困境”——政治施压扰乱货币政策预期,以及国际贸易格局不稳加剧全球经济前景不确定性。

  若美联储失去政策独立性,将可能引发更大范围的资本外逃与避险需求提升,推动黄金、瑞郎等传统避险资产进一步走高。短期来看,美元指数跌破97.9将成为市场情绪的重要风向标,若失守,将可能引发新一轮结构调整。

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  复宏汉霖(02696)盘中涨超9%,截至发稿,股价上涨8.40%,现报36.80港元,成交额3593.75万港元。

  消息面上,复星医药公布,今年4月11日至17日期间,控股子公司复星医药产业与上海善梧、无锡通善、舟山果运及Henlink分别签订转让协议,控股子公司复星医药产业拟以24.60港元/股的价格受让上海善梧、无锡通善、舟山果运及Henlink合计持有的2103万股复宏汉霖非上市股份,转让价款共计5.17亿港元。在此次增持之后,复星医药持有复宏汉霖的股权比例将增至63.43%。

  21日早盘,A股三大指数走势分化,沪指微幅上涨,深成指、创指飘绿。大盘价值风格乘势而起,300现金流指数拉升翻红,成份股洛阳钼业涨近5%,海大集团、宇通客车涨超2%,新和成、云南白药、中国石油等多股涨超1%。

  ETF方面,国内首批跟踪300现金流指数的300现金流ETF562080)同步上涨,盘中高价1.023元,再创上市新高。尤为值得一提的是,自4月15日上市以来,300现金流ETF(562080)每个交易日均收出阳线,防御属性凸显,今日望日线六连阳。

  公开资料显示,300现金流ETF(562080)被动跟踪的沪深300自由现金流指数(简称:300现金流)采用自由现金流选股策略,在沪深300(剔除金融和地产)50现金奶牛公司。截至当前,300现金流ETF(562080)是沪市首只上市自由现金流策略ETF,也是全市场唯一已上市交易的300现金流ETF

  国泰海通证券指出,全球金融风波、增长预期下调,投资人承担风险的意愿或降低,不确定性的定价环境中确定性的供给或将成为关键。全球经贸局势趋于复杂,具有稳定现金流的板块防御价值凸显

  市场分析人士也表示,在外部扰动频发背景下,宏观不确定性上升,现金为王时代或已到来,高现金流的现金奶牛公司得益于较高的经营质量和股息率,拥有更强的穿越周期的能力和股东回报潜力,在当下更可能获得资金青睐

  从基本面来看,沪深300高现金流公司的经营韧性较强。截至当前,已披露2024年年报的39成份股公司全部实现盈利归母净利润同比增速中位数达14.29%;从2025年一季报业绩预告来看,目前已公告的10家中9家预告净利同比增速在20%以上。

  穿越周期,现金为王!在不确定性宏观环境中,坚定拥抱确定性,配置关注300现金流ETF562080。在沪深300核心资产中挖掘“真金”宝藏,一键投资TOP50大市值“现金奶牛”公司,底仓配置聪明之选。

  数据来源:沪深交易所、公开信息。

  风险提示:300现金流ETF被动跟踪沪深300自由现金流指数,该指数基日为2013.12.31,发布日期为2024.11.12。该基金由华宝基金发行与管理,代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理责任。投资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件,了解基金的风险收益特征,选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金管理人评估的该基金风险等级为R3-中风险,适宜平衡型(C3)及以上的投资者,适当性匹配意见请以销售机构为准。销售机构(包括基金管理人直销机构和其他销售机构)根据相关法律法规对该基金进行风险评价,投资者应及时关注销售机构出具的适当性意见,并以其匹配结果为准,各销售机构关于适当性的意见不必然一致,且基金销售机构所出具的基金产品风险等级评价结果不得低于基金管理人作出的风险等级评价结果。基金合同中关于基金风险收益特征与基金风险等级因考虑因素不同而存在差异。投资者应了解基金的风险收益情况,结合自身投资目的、期限、投资经验及风险承受能力谨慎选择基金产品并自行承担风险。中国证监会对该基金的注册,并不表明其对该基金的投资价值、市场前景和收益做出实质性判断或保证。基金的过往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对该基金业绩表现的保证。基金有风险,投资须谨慎!

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错!热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  药明生物(02269)盘中涨超3%,截至发稿,股价上涨2.93%,现报21.10港元,成交额4.80亿港元。

  4月21日,全球领先的疫苗合同定制研发和生产(CDMO)服务公司药明海德宣布与全球领先的创新细菌疫苗研发企业羽冠生物达成战略合作。羽冠生物将借助药明海德在疫苗CDMO领域的一体化研发和生产服务能力以及世界一流的质量体系,推广其新一代细菌外囊泡技术平台OMVPlus在全球细菌疫苗领域的广泛应用。

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