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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
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茂名市(信宜市、茂南区、化州市、高州市、电白区)巴音郭楞蒙古自治州(和硕县、焉耆回族自治县、尉犁县、博湖县、若羌县、轮台县、和静县、库尔勒市、且末县)








阿勒泰地区(富蕴县、青河县、布尔津县、阿勒泰市、福海县、吉木乃县、哈巴河县)








宜昌市(兴山县、猇亭区、枝江市、点军区、远安县、当阳市、西陵区、伍家岗区、夷陵区、五峰土家族自治县、秭归县、宜都市、长阳土家族自治县)








商丘市(梁园区、民权县、夏邑县、虞城县、柘城县、睢阳区、宁陵县、永城市、睢县)








镇江市(丹阳市、丹徒区、润州区、句容市、扬中市、京口区)








眉山市(洪雅县、丹棱县、仁寿县、东坡区、青神县、彭山区)








芜湖市(弋江区、镜湖区、繁昌区、湾沚区、鸠江区、南陵县、无为市)








南京市(玄武区、浦口区、秦淮区、溧水区、高淳区、江宁区、六合区、建邺区、栖霞区、鼓楼区、雨花台区)








防城港市(上思县、港口区、防城区、东兴市)








周口市(项城市、川汇区、淮阳区、扶沟县、太康县、沈丘县、西华县、商水县、郸城县、鹿邑县)








吐鲁番市(鄯善县、高昌区、托克逊县)








大同市(平城区、左云县、阳高县、广灵县、灵丘县、云冈区、浑源县、云州区、新荣区、天镇县)








临夏回族自治州(和政县、广河县、永靖县、临夏县、东乡族自治县、积石山保安族东乡族撒拉族自治县、临夏市、康乐县)








德阳市(什邡市、绵竹市、中江县、广汉市、旌阳区、罗江区)








伊犁哈萨克自治州(伊宁县、尼勒克县、伊宁市、巩留县、察布查尔锡伯自治县、特克斯县、奎屯市、霍城县、昭苏县、霍尔果斯市、新源县)








安阳市(龙安区、滑县、北关区、文峰区、安阳县、殷都区、内黄县、汤阴县、林州市)








深圳市(南山区、盐田区、坪山区、光明区、龙华区、宝安区、罗湖区、龙岗区、福田区)

  市场回顾与分析

  一级市场回顾

  上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为4350亿、2006亿和1406亿,净融资额为3800亿、1227亿和1406亿。金融债(不含政金债)共计发行规模302亿,净融资额-224亿。非金信用债共计发行规模4082亿,净融资额920亿。暂无可转债新券发行。

  二级市场回顾

  上周债市窄幅震荡,曲线整体走平。主要影响因素包括:资金面、经济金融数据、美国政策波动等。

  流动性跟踪

  上周央行净投放流动性,对冲MLF到期和税期,资金面表现均衡。最终R001和R007分别较前周上行3.8BP和上行1BP。

  政策与基本面

  3月经济金融数据表现超预期,但市场对二季度后经济走势仍有担忧。高频数据来看:高频生产指标分化中上游强下游弱,房地产、出口景气度下行,油价回升、金价上涨。

  海外市场

  美与多国贸易谈判开始,海外市场波动率有所回落。10年期美债收盘在4.34%,较前周下行14BP。

  权益市场

  上周上证指数周一至周四连阳,国家队托底意图明显,相比之下,创业板表现稍弱。具体看,上周万得全A上涨0.39%,上证50上涨1.45%,沪深300上涨0.59%,创业板指下跌0.64%。上周A股成交量大幅缩量,日均成交额1.11万亿,周度日均成交量大幅减少5023亿。截至2025年4月17日,全A融资余额18023.00亿,较4月10日减少85.99亿元。

  债市策略展望

  债市再度进入观察震荡期,等待海内外事件的进一步发酵。当前宏观面较为复杂,市场缺乏明确方向。二季度将持续跟踪两件重点事项,一是中美关税谈判的后续进展,随着双方关税上升至100%以上,关税进一步加码已无实际意义,市场更关心中美潜在的协商进程,中美双方已阶段性释放谈判善意;二是,国内政策潜在加码的力度和方向,4月政治局会议作为季初讨论经济的会议,将成为市场观察年中政策基调的重要窗口,相比于往年的货币先行财政后至,本次财政可能更为积极,而货币的宽松更多是配合和被动的。在市场等待期间,市场偏好趋于摇摆,债市或维持震荡运行。考虑到二季度资金松紧情况一般好于一季度,对于负债端稳定的机构可关注5Y及以上长久期信用债的配置机会,当前长久期信用利差仍有较高压缩空间,信用债行情有望从中短久期轮动到长久期。转债方面,短期消息面频繁出现,给市场带来扰动。在进入到基本面定价阶段之前,市场阶段性的定价可能集中在关税博弈的拉扯摇摆、国内货币和内需政策的期待上,关注政策演绎。

  风险提示:本材料的信息均来源于已公开的资料,对信息的准确性、完整性或可靠性不作任何保证。本材料中的观点、分析仅代表公司研究团队观点,在任何情况下本文中的信息或表达的意见并不构成实际投资结果,也不构成任何对投资人的投资建议和担保。任何媒体、网站、个人未经本公司授权不得转载。

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