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  美国劳工部周四表示,尽管企业担心可能出现经济衰退,但仍继续留用员工,上周美国申请失业救济金的人数小幅上升。

  在截至4月19日的一周内,失业救济申请人数增加了6000人,达到22.2万人。这仅略高于分析师预测的22万份新申请。

  每周申请失业救济金的人数被视为裁员情况的指标,在过去几年中,这一数字大多保持在20万至25万的健康范围内。

  尽管唐纳德・特朗普总统已经暂停或收回了他的许多关税威胁,但人们仍然担心全球经济放缓可能会颠覆一直以来具有强大韧性的美国劳动力市场。

  就像他承诺征收关税一样,特朗普大幅削减联邦政府工作人员的承诺在其总统任期的早期占据了大量时间,并且仍在推进中。

  目前尚不清楚由埃隆・马斯克牵头的政府效率部(简称“DOGE”)下令的裁员何时会在每周的裁员数据中显现出来。然而,联邦政府的人员削减已经产生了影响,甚至在华盛顿特区以外的地区也是如此。

  已经宣布裁员或计划裁员的联邦机构包括卫生与公众服务部、国税局、小企业管理局、退伍军人事务部和教育部。

  尽管在过去一年中劳动力市场出现了一些疲软的迹象,但总体而言仍保持健康,有大量的职位空缺,裁员情况相对较少。

  本月早些时候,政府报告称,美国雇主在3月份出人意料地增加了22.8万个就业岗位。虽然失业率小幅上升至4.2%,但从历史标准来看,这仍然是一个健康的数字。

  今年已经有一些知名公司宣布了裁员计划,包括Workday、陶氏、美国有线电视新闻网、星巴克、西南航空公司和脸书的母公司元公司。

  周四的报告还显示,申请人数的四周平均值下降了750,至220,250人,这一数据平滑了一些每周的波动。

  在4月12日当周,领取失业救济金的美国人总数减少了3.7万,至184万人。

  Freeport-McMoRan公司周四表示,拟议中的关税可能会使这家铜矿开采商在美国采购商品的成本增加约5%。

  特朗普对大多数美国进口商品实施的大规模关税,以及与迅速升温的贸易战,在整个采矿业引发了不确定性,各公司纷纷匆忙寻找替代供应链。

  该公司表示:“Freeport-McMoRan公司正在监测美国贸易政策对经济增长的潜在间接影响,以及对铜需求可能产生的影响。目前正在努力评估替代采购方案,以减轻潜在影响。”

  Freeport-McMoRan公司称,其在第一季度生产了8.68亿磅可回收铜,低于去年同期报告的10.9亿磅可回收铜。

  该公司铜的单位现金成本从去年的每磅1.51美元上升至每磅2.07美元。

  截至3月31日的三个月里,这家总部位于亚利桑那州凤凰城的公司归属于普通股股东的净收入从去年同期的4.73亿美元(合每股32美分)降至3.52亿美元(合每股24美分)。

  来源:国际金融报

  金价近日高位震荡,与黄金挂钩的理财产品收益率随之出现较大波动。

  4月24日,普益标准数据显示,与黄金挂钩的理财产品成立以来年化收益率为3.4904%,较一周前收窄约0.18%。与此同时,理财子公司“掘金”更为谨慎。2月初,理财子公司尚有38只“含金”产品待售,截至4月24日下午仅有16只。

  受访专家认为,目前银行理财在黄金资产配置上持谨慎乐观态度。整体来看,黄金的避险和对冲通胀属性仍未改变。投资者需要注意黄金投资的配置比例与工具选择,并密切关注政策信号。

  近一周收益收窄

  挂钩黄金的银行理财产品收益出现较大波动!

  今年以来,金价一路狂飙。4月22日,COMEX(纽约商品交易所)黄金期货和现货黄金价格一度突破3500美元/盎司,均刷新历史最高点。4月23日,金价坐上“过山车”,现货黄金价格突发跳水,跌破3300美元/盎司关口。

  与金价一同波动的还有挂钩黄金的银行理财产品。

  据普益标准数据,截至4月24日,挂钩黄金的理财产品成立以来的年化收益率为3.4904%,较前一日的3.489%略微回升。但相较一周以前(4月17日)的年化收益率3.675%,收窄0.1846个百分点。

  《国际金融报》记者注意到,当前银行理财机构“掘金”愈发谨慎。

  4月24日,记者以“黄金”为关键词在中国理财网检索发现,目前市场上存续的与黄金挂钩的理财产品共有43只。其中,33只为汇丰银行(中国)、花旗银行(中国)、富邦华一银行等外资行发行的代客境外理财计划,风险等级普遍较高,多在四级(R4)和五级(R5)。银行理财子公司与黄金挂钩的产品仅有10只存续,分别来自招银理财、光大理财和民生理财。此外,还有3只外资行理财产品正在募集期。

  与今年年初相比,理财公司“掘金”力度下降。比如,2月6日,市场上待售的挂钩黄金理财产品数量有38只,而4月24日仅有16只,包括光大理财的3只、招银理财的12只和兴银理财的1只“含金”理财产品。

  “目前,银行理财在黄金资产配置上持谨慎乐观态度。尽管黄金价格近期有所波动,但整体来看,黄金的避险和对冲通胀属性仍未改变,使得黄金在复杂多变的市场环境中成为投资者眼中的重要资产。”普益标准研究员董丹浓对记者表示。

  投资者如何配置

  黄金价格近期高位震荡,投资者对于“含金”银行理财的态度是否出现变化?董丹浓指出,投资者对于配置“黄金”理财产品的主要驱动力来自多方面。

  “因全球经济不确定性、股市波动及存款利率下行,投资者存在避险需求。黄金被视为抵御货币超发和通胀的工具,投资者有保值抗通胀的需求。此外,既有固收保底、又有黄金增值潜力的‘固收+’类产品较好地平衡了收益和风险,满足了投资者‘进可攻退可守’的投资策略。”董丹浓分析道,“在当前市场预期不确定的情况下,投资者对黄金的态度可能出现分化。基于近期的金价大幅波动,投资者应认识到‘市场从不存在绝对安全港,唯有不断重估的风险价值’。”

  在董丹浓看来,近期金价下跌是美联储政策转向、美元走强、地缘政治缓和等多重因素共振的结果。银行理财资金将关注这些事件的演变,以把握黄金的投资机会;全球多国央行持续购入黄金作为外汇储备的一部分,这一趋势将对黄金价格形成支撑。

  排排网财富理财师荣浩建议投资者,需要注意黄金投资的配置比例与工具选择,并关注政策信号。黄金占家庭资产比例建议低于15%,优先选择黄金ETF或定投积存金;避免杠杆操作,如信用卡套现买金等,警惕品牌金饰溢价和变现成本。此外,应紧盯美联储政策、美元指数及地缘事件,如中美关税问题缓和可能引发金价回调;设置止损线,避免盲目追高。

  近日,佳鑫国际在港交所更新IPO招股书。招股书提到,公司是扎根于哈萨克斯坦的钨矿公司,主要专注于筹备巴库塔钨矿项目的商业生产。巴库塔钨矿项目在报告期内处于勘探及开发阶段,无确认任何收入。2022年至2024年,佳鑫国际分别亏损9445万港元、8012.9万港元和1.77亿港元。

  公司特别提示,巴库塔钨矿项目生产的钨矿石最终可能无法盈利,导致公司无法保证按计划产生利润及发展业务。

  招股书显示,巴库塔钨矿项目在2024年11月投入试生产,以测试并微调加工流程。公司预计将于2025年第二季度开始商业化生产,2025年的目标年度采矿及矿物加工能力是330万吨钨矿石。截至最后实际可行日期,公司仅有一个矿场(即巴库塔钨矿),近期收入主要来自该矿场。

  公司预计,2025年巴库塔钨矿项目的营运现金成本总额为4.63亿元,其中营运现金单位成本为每吨矿石156元及每吨精矿7.74万元。由于巴库塔钨矿项目目标产量预期将达到4.95百万吨/年,且二期商业生产的矿石分选系统预期将安装,到2027年,公司营运现金成本总额预期将增至5.627亿元,而营运现金单位成本预计将大幅下降至每吨矿石113元及每吨精矿4.9万元。

  根据弗若斯特沙利文资料,截至2024年12月31日,公司的巴库塔钨矿为全球第四大WO3矿产资源量钨矿(包括露天钨矿及地下钨矿),在单一钨矿中拥有世界上最大的设计钨矿产能。

  兆恒国际有限公司及江西铜业香港分别拥有公司约43.35%及约41.65%的权益。2022年至2024年,公司向五大供应商的采购额分别为2.14亿港元、7.457亿港元及5.89亿港元,占采购总额的94.2%、97.7%及95.8%。同期,自最大供应商中国土木工程集团有限公司(CCECC)的采购额分别为2.026亿港元、7.271亿港元及5.758亿港元,占采购总额的89.2%、95.2%及93.6%。

  招股书提示,采矿作业现时集中于一个矿场,即哈萨克斯坦的巴库塔钨矿项目,业务运营依赖于此单一采矿项目;招股书中所呈列的钨储量及资源数据为估算,可能不准确,基于该等估算预测的未来产量、营业额及资本开支可能与实际数字存在重大差异;公司盈利能力受多因素影响,包括实际产量及销量、销售成本、钨市场价格、货币汇率及通胀等,上述因素均存在不确定性。

  本月,杠杆股票交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)的资金流入大幅增加,因为一些投资者试图布局,以便在市场从美国总统唐纳德・特朗普的贸易关裞引发的抛售中复苏时获得更高的收益。

  根据路孚特理柏(LSEGLipper)的数据,截至本月,杠杆股票基金已获得109.5亿美元的资金流入,已经超过了上个月创下的92亿美元的5年高点。此前的峰值出现在2020年3月,当时市场受到新冠疫情危机的重创。

  杠杆股票基金旨在实现基础指数(如标普500指数或纳斯达克100指数)每日回报率的数倍收益。它们在那些想要避开期货市场的个人投资者中特别受欢迎,因为在期货市场中,如果价格下跌,市场波动可能会引发追加保证金通知或强制抛售。

  自从特朗普在4月2日宣布对等关裞以来,明晟全球指数(MSCIWorldIndex)已下跌超过3%,而标普500指数和纳斯达克指数均下跌了5%。

  最初的跌幅更大,但在特朗普决定暂停这些关裞90天后,市场出现了回升。

  联邦金融网络(CommonwealthFinancialNetwork)的另类投资总监罗布・凯恩表示,流入杠杆ETF的资金在很大程度上是由市场对美联储即将降息的预期以及认为关裞在更广泛的贸易谈判中被用作筹码的观点所推动的。

  他说:“由投资者情绪驱动的最初过度反应往往会迅速逆转,而杠杆ETF的短期表现特性,再加上它们能够带来的巨额收益,使其成为利用价格大幅波动获利的一种战术工具。”

  由于像罗宾汉(Robinhood)这样的交易平台的兴起,这些基金变得更加受欢迎,这些平台为个人投资者提供了便捷的渠道来投资这类ETF。

  然而,一些分析师警告称,这些基金存在业绩衰减的问题,由于每日的资产重新配置和市场波动,其回报率会随着时间的推移而下降,这使得长期持有它们存在风险。

  第一信息公司(FirstInformation)首席执行官文斯・斯坦佐内表示,杠杆ETF不适合长期持有,每日的重置会严重影响回报率,尤其是在市场没有趋势性行情的时候。

  “事实上,包括我在内的专业交易员会做空像纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)这样的三倍杠杆ETF,以便从这种业绩衰减和市场低效中获利。”

  欧洲央行首席经济学家PhilipLane表示,贸易紧张局势不太可能导致欧元区陷入衰退。

  他指出,尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税措施可能会抑制经济增长,但由20个成员国组成的欧元区拥有其他贸易伙伴,不会自动陷入经济下行。

  “有下调,但重要的是指出只是略有下调,”他周四接受采访时表示。“经济仍在增长。”

  欧洲央行目前预测2025年欧元区GDP增长0.9%,但将在6月的下一次政策会议更新预测。国际货币基金组织(IMF)本周将该地区的增长预期从1%下调至0.8%。

  欧洲央行在贸易风暴下继续推进降息,上周进行了第七次降息。尽管多数官员仍持谨慎态度,强调不确定性高企,但部分官员对通胀形势持乐观态度,这可能为进一步降息打开大门。

  偏鹰派的奥地利央行行长RobertHolzmann对CNBC表示:“今年可能还会有更多降息,但次数仍未确定。”

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