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(文/汤普济编辑/吕栋)

4月15日,Canalys发布2025年第一季度全球智能手机出货量报告,数据显示,2025年第一季度,全球智能手机市场整体环境比预期更为动荡,同比增长1%。市场调研公司IDC与Counterpoint的同期数据分别为1.5%和3%,均为个位数增长。

根据Counterpoint公布的排名,一季度苹果手机登上全球市场榜首(份额19%)。虽然在美国、欧洲和中国市场销量持平或下滑,但苹果在日本、印度、中东非洲及东南亚地区实现两位数增长;三星、小米、vivo、OPPO均跻身前五。同时,荣耀、华为和联想摩托罗拉等厂商增速亮眼,华为成为中国市场第一大厂商,荣耀和摩托罗拉则在多个市场呈现高速增长。

Canalys

第一季度的增长主要得益于新兴市场的强劲需求复苏,尤其是在亚太、拉丁美洲和中东地区,中国市场的补贴政策也有效刺激了消费需求,但成熟市场如美国和欧洲出现了疲态。全球市场仍然面临宏观经济下行压力、贸易风险上升、消费者信心疲软和渠道库存出货延迟等一系列挑战。

研究机构纷纷指出,特朗普的关税政策为厂商带来了高度的不确定性。当下,厂商如苹果正在大量提前出货,尤其是面向美国市场,以缓解潜在的成本上升影响,避免供应中断的风险。

IDC认为,这导致第一季度的出货量超过了基于潜在消费需求所预期的水平。Canalys则指出,厂商及其供应链伙伴正加速推进供应链多元化战略,转移生产基地、重新评估采购模式以及优化物流网络都将持续冲击行业盈利能力,并延长全球智能手机行业的规划周期。

Canalys高级分析师SanyamChaurasia表示:“受全球宏观经济挑战影响,消费者情绪依然谨慎,抑制了第一季度本应出现的季节性增长。即便是在如斋月等关键市场的节庆期间,需求也低于预期。面对出货量恢复缓慢的情况,厂商正将重点放在提升盈利能力的同时,保持在市场投资上的积极性与灵活性。具体策略包括:动态渠道激励计划以推动出货,与分销商合作在新兴市场扩大融资支持,以及灵活的渠道定价策略,在盈利和价格竞争力之间寻找平衡。”

与Counterpoint略有不同,IDC的数据显示,一季度三星、苹果、小米位列全球手机市场前三。尽管三星在2025年初期其出货速度较慢,但随着S25系列旗舰和A系列的发布,销量迅速回升,在3月的销量实现了两位数的增长。其中,S25系列销量中“Ultra”的份额有所增加。

苹果得益于其入门级iPhone16e的发布和在新兴市场的持续扩展,苹果在日本、印度和中东等市场的表现非常强劲。同时,苹果为了避免关税,在美国市场进行提前备货,渠道商则因担心供应链中断,向其他地区大量发货,导致其第一季度出货量创历史新高。尽管美国和欧洲的销量出现疲软,在中国市场的表现持续下滑,但其整体市场份额保持稳定。

IDC

小米销售势头强劲,位列第三。Counterpoint指出,小米通过扩大在电动汽车领域的投资,使其在国内市场的品牌影响力显著增强。IDC则认为“国补”政策对小米中端产品的销售产生了积极影响,推动了其在中国市场的明显增长。IDC的数据显示,2025年第一季度中国智能手机市场中,小米以39.9%的同比增幅占据了18.6%的市场份额,位列第一。

vivo得益于“国补”政策,在国际新兴市场依靠中低端产品的推动表现强劲,同比增长约6%。

OPPO虽然凭借“国补”政策在中国持续增长,在印度、拉丁美洲和欧洲也有所增长,但仍然在国际市场面临较大竞争压力,市场份额略微下降。

2023、2024、2025第一季度全球Top5智能手机厂商销量份额对比Counterpoint

IDC的数据显示,2025年第一季度中国市场智能手机的出货量延续了过去五个季度的增长趋势,同比增长3.3%,达7160万部。增长的主要动力来自于中国政府实施的“国补”政策和春节销售旺季的双重拉动。然而IDC指出,2025年中国智能手机市场仍将面临来自国际地缘政治和宏观经济环境的压力。

这家机构给出的报告显示,小米、华为、OPPO、vivo和苹果,位列中国前五,其中苹果出货量大幅下滑9%,也是前五名中唯一下滑的厂商。

IDC

总体而言,虽然2025年第一季度全球智能手机市场出货量有所增长,Counterpoint也对长期前景保持稳定,但该机构表示,经济不确定性可能导致消费者延迟换机,加之贸易风险上升和供应链波动,市场前景承压。虽然GenAI和折叠屏等新技术将持续发展,但手机品牌厂商需审慎研判需求走势。尽管长期展望保持稳定,但预计2025年智能手机市场将出现同比下滑。

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