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  4月23日,科技板块回暖成为市场亮点。多只科技板块ETF,尤其是港股科技ETF涨势强劲。投资风险偏好的跷跷板效应有所显现,此前被市场视为防御属性的黄金主题ETF出现大幅调整。

  资金流向方面,数据显示,4月22日ETF市场整体获资金净流入逾20亿元。黄金主题ETF吸金势头强劲,人工智能(AI)、机器人、港股科技等主题ETF同样获得了资金的青睐。

  港股科技ETF强势回血

  数据显示,4月23日,科技板块ETF强势反弹。全市场涨幅前50位的ETF中,除了部分汽车行业ETF和主投美股的跨境ETF,几乎都是科技板块ETF。其中,港股科技ETF涨幅尤为明显,全市场涨幅前10位的ETF中,港股科技ETF占7只,单日涨幅均超过4%。港股通科技ETF(513860)以6.07%的涨幅位居全市场首位。

  此外,机器人主题ETF表现也较为抢眼,机器人ETF易方达(159530)、机器人50ETF(159559)两只ETF跻身涨幅榜前十,挂钩指数均为国证机器人产业指数。截至收盘,该指数50只成分股中,兆威机电涨停,汉威科技、赛摩智能、步科股份等涨超10%。

  值得注意的是,3月下旬以来,多只科技板块ETF出现大幅回撤。在近期强势反弹后,部分ETF场内价格已修复至接近4月3日的水平。

  黄金主题ETF大幅调整

  前期涨势突出的黄金主题ETF在4月23日大幅调整,“霸占”ETF跌幅榜主要位置。其中,黄金股票ETF(517400)跌幅7.09%,位居首位,该基金挂钩中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数。截至收盘,46只指数成分股中,仅4只个股收涨,明牌珠宝、赤峰黄金跌停。

  受避险情绪短期退潮影响,黄金价格面临阶段性调整。4月23日,国际、国内金价大幅走低。值得注意的是,4月22日有部分资金涌入黄金主题ETF,单日获资金净流入前10位的ETF中,黄金主题ETF占一半,多只产品单日获净流入超10亿元。但从4月23日市场表现来看,黄金主题ETF普遍下跌,部分新进场资金或遭受了不同程度的亏损。

  博时黄金ETF的基金经理王祥认为,此前的黄金市场表现亢奋,短、中、长期逻辑共振推动了黄金的强势。这种共振在历史上较为少见,后续存在降温可能。从理性角度来看,前期黄金上涨速率不会持续,投资者应更注重中长期黄金相关资产的配置价值。

  近日,国泰海通完成重组更名上市,万亿券商“航母”正式启航。这一里程碑事件是证券行业近年来加速整合的缩影。

  自中央金融工作会议提出“培育一流投资银行”以来,政策支持叠加市场竞争压力,券业并购潮持续升温。然而,如何通过整合实现“1+1>2”的协同效应,仍是行业亟待破解的核心命题。

  “并购不是终点,而是新竞争力的起点。”多位业内专家对中国证券报记者表示,证券业整合已进入精准化阶段。证券公司通过并购夯实实力,行业集中度将持续提升;通过选择合适的并购模式,注重业务互补、文化融合,并在监管层的支持与引导下,提升资源整合效率,实现更多“1+1>2”的并购案例。

  ●本报记者周璐璐林倩葛瑶

  政策推力与市场压力共振券业并购潮加速

  2023年以来,证券行业迎来第五轮并购潮。谈及本轮券业并购潮,受访专家均认为这是政策与市场双重驱动下的必然趋势。

  一方面,与以往不同,本轮并购潮具有鲜明的政策导向性。2023年中央金融工作会议明确提出“培育一流投资银行和投资机构”。2024年3月,证监会明确“到2035年形成2至3家具备国际竞争力与市场引领力的投资银行和投资机构”的目标。2024年4月,国务院发布新“国九条”,提出“支持头部机构通过并购重组、组织创新等方式提升核心竞争力”……这一系列政策为券业并购提供了清晰的方向指引。

  另一方面,证券行业竞争日益激烈。正如南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉所说,随着外资券商加速进入国内市场,以及金融科技对传统业务模式的冲击,中小券商面临生存压力,头部券商则希望通过并购扩大市场份额。

  “前三轮并购主要是解决问题,包括分业经营、综合治理、一参一控等,第四轮并购虽然是市场化驱动,但体量较小。本轮并购的特征是大体量、大范围、大创新,鼓励头部券商之间并购重组,AH吸收合并的方式也是历史性创新,并购完成后也更接近国际一流投资银行的目标。”东海证券非银首席分析师陶圣禹表示。

  在此次国泰君安和海通证券的合并中,作为国泰君安境外独家财务顾问,瑞银主要负责协助统筹境外相关的工作条线。“从海外投行业发展来看,大型投行的发展壮大也是通过并购其他券商。”瑞银全球投资银行部亚洲区副主席朱正芹表示,证券行业头部集中趋势仍在强化,预计未来证券行业将出现更多类似国泰君安和海通证券合并的交易。

  从规模扩张到能力跃迁并购模式呈多元化趋势

  本轮并购潮突破传统“大吃小”的模式,呈现强强联合、区域整合等新特征。例如,国泰君安与海通证券的合并创下A+H市场吸收合并纪录,总资产规模跃居行业第一;浙商证券收购国都证券则聚焦区域资源协同。

  在受访专家看来,并购模式的多元化趋势一定程度反映出券业并购已从简单的规模扩张转向聚焦能力跃迁。

  根据田利辉观察,在券业并购模式趋于多元化的过程中,部分头部券商通过并购拓展国际业务,增强全球化布局能力。同时,金融科技的发展促使券商在并购中更加注重技术整合和数字化能力的提升。证券业并购已进入精准化阶段。

  谈及不同券商如何选择更适合的并购模式,“权衡”成为受访专家的高频词。

  陶圣禹认为,中小券商应权衡自身实力、特色业务及发展规划,选择能发挥优势、弥补短板的并购模式;头部券商则要考虑战略布局、资源协同及管理能力,选择能提升综合实力和国际竞争力的并购模式。

  “中小券商宜选择被并购获取资源,头部券商可探索业务互补式并购或国际化整合,当然,这需要平衡战略目标与整合难度。”川财证券首席经济学家、研究所所长陈雳说。

  总体而言,开源证券非银金融首席分析师高超认为,无论是头部券商整合还是中小券商整合,证券公司同业整合均需要权衡整合协同收益和整合成本,持续提升自身盈利能力、企业治理能力和综合竞争优势,为未来潜在的外延战略打牢基础。

  多维度提升整合效率实现“1+1>2”

  回顾过去的券业并购,实现“1+1>2”的案例不在少数。不过,阻碍券商并购效益的因素依然存在。

  首先是文化冲突。“文化冲突往往是并购失败的主要原因之一,尤其是在强强联合模式中。”田利辉直言。陶圣禹表示,不同券商的企业文化、管理风格差异大,易导致员工凝聚力下降、工作效率降低。其次是业务整合难度大。陶圣禹认为,各券商业务流程、客户资源等存在差异,整合不当会造成业务停滞、客户流失。最后是人员安置问题。并购后岗位重叠,若处理不好人员去留,易引发内部矛盾和不良社会影响。

  高超还告诉记者,证券公司业务具有牌照性强、同质化特征明显和人力资本密集等特征,在行业整合过程中,有可能面临牌照冗余、业务和地域重叠度较高、核心骨干人才流失等问题,整合成本需要较长时间消化。

  在“培育一流投行”目标下,受访专家称,行业需从战略定位、技术赋能、监管优化等多维度提升整合效率,实现“1+1>2”。

  战略层面上,差异化定位与精准协同并进。“提升资源整合效率的着手点是要强化顶层设计”,田利辉说,这需要制定清晰的并购战略和整合计划,确保目标一致。陶圣禹认为,券商应依据自身优势与定位,打造差异化业务体系,如专注特色领域或服务特定客户群体,实现资源精准投放。

  执行层面上,利用数字化赋能,强化内部管理。利用金融科技提升资源整合效率是受访专家的共识,其表示,券商可利用大数据、人工智能等技术,构建统一的数字化平台,整合客户、交易等数据资源,实现信息共享,提升运营效率和服务质量,为客户提供精准服务。同时,建立高效的内部管理体系,简化流程、明确职责、加强部门间协作,提升资源调配速度和效果,保障整合工作顺利推进。

  监管层面上,简审批与强监测并重。一方面,简化审批流程,完善信息披露制度。陈雳建议,对科创并购项目“开绿灯”。另一方面,加强引导协调,强化监管审查。陶圣禹建议,完善政策法规,细化并购相关规则,引导券商基于自身战略和行业发展进行并购,避免盲目跟风;同时,加强对并购过程的全方位监管,严格审查并购方资质、资金来源等,防止恶意并购和利益输送,确保并购质量。田利辉建议,强化风险预警机制,建立并购风险监测体系,及时发现并化解潜在问题。

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