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婚前试爱军长别使坏:业的未来发展趋势预测

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  汇通财经APP讯——美国企业主和CEO们已经在囤积库存,一些购物者因预期特朗普总统的关税而恐慌地购买大件商品。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示,突然的购买狂潮可能导致经济活动“人为高涨”。

  他周日(4月20日)表示:“这种先发制人的采购在企业方面可能更为明显。”他补充称:“我们听到很多关于先发制人积累库存的说法,如果不确定性增加,可能会持续60天或90天。”

  古尔斯比认为,企业囤积库存和消费者加快购买决定,比如现在购买苹果手机,而不是等到秋天,可能会在4月份推高美国经济活动,并导致未来几个月的经济放缓。

  他说:“一开始,市场活动可能看起来人为地很高,但到了夏天,可能会下降,因为人们已经全部买好了。”

  古尔斯比表示,受特朗普关税影响的行业,尤其是汽车行业,最有可能在其他国家商品的进口关税可能进一步上升之前大量囤积库存。例如,许多汽车零部件、电子元件和其他大件消费品都是在亚洲大国制造的,而该国目前被进口到美国的商品面临145%的总关税。

  特朗普对其他一些国家的关税目前处于90天的暂停期,10%的基准关税税率适用于所有进口商品。暂停将于7月9日到期,在此之前特朗普将与外国领导人进行一系列的税率谈判。

  古尔斯比表示:“我们不知道,90天后,当关税被重新审视时,我们不知道它们会有多高。”

  一些购买亚洲大国制造商品的美国企业主表示,他们已经负担不起库存的加急订单。新奇饮料公司DragonGlassware的老板兼CEOMattRollens说,他暂时搁置了在亚洲大国的产品,因为缴纳145%的关税将迫使他提高消费者价格至少50%,这可能会使客户需求枯竭。

  他在4月11日表示,他在美国的库存足够维持到6月,并希望届时关税会降低。

  撇开短期的不确定性和金融痛苦不谈,美联储的古尔斯比对美国的长期经济前景表示乐观。

  他说:“如果我们能度过难关,重要的是要记住:4月份的硬数据相当不错,失业率处于稳定的充分就业水平,通胀也在下降。这只是人们表达的一种愿望,他们不想回到2021年和2022年,当时通胀真的失控了。”

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