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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
超级学生公子诺5200:畅享无与伦比的视觉盛宴
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超级学生公子诺5200:畅享无与伦比的视觉盛宴

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小商品城股价持续上涨的原因,主要是其以“收租”为核心的商业模式盈利稳定性较强,该业务为公司贡献了绝大部分的利润,因此业绩保持较好的增长。机构认为,小商品城业务正在持续扩张,而租金仍有不小的上涨空间,市场预期将带来新的业绩增量。

薛宇/文

2024年以来,小商品城(600415.SH)股价整体保持较好增长,至2025年4月1日,小商品城股价收于15.51元/股,已经接近2015年6月的历史最高股价17.4元/股,总市值也达到851亿元。

股价上涨的背后是稳步增长的业绩。近几年小商品城的业绩表现优异,主要是公司传统业务市场经营业务得益于义乌外贸景气度高等原因收入持续增长,而且,小商品城新市场即将投入营业,租金仍有不小的上涨空间,这些都将为公司带来新的业绩增量。

业绩持续增长

3月26日,小商品城发布2024年报,公司实现营业收入157.37亿元,同比增长39.27%,实现净利润30.74亿元,同比增长14.85%,扣非净利润29.83亿元,同比增长20.84%。

自2020年剥离房地产业务以来,小商品城主要收入来源变为市场经营和商品销售。此后公司营业收入在商品销售业务驱动下实现快速增长:2021-2024年,公司营业收入分别为60.34亿元、76.2亿元、113亿元、157.37亿元,同比增长61.95%、26.28%、48.3%、39.27%;净利润分别为13.34亿元、11.05亿元、26.76亿元、30.74亿元,同比增长43.97%、-17.19%、142.25%、14.85%。

近几年营收保持快速增长,主要因为公司的市场经营、商品销售及贸易服务等业务均保持较快增长,其中市场经营业务增长主要得益于义乌外贸景气度高、线下新市场投放、选位费制度的启用等因素。净利润方面,除了2022年减租免租对净利影响约7亿元,公司净利保持稳步提升趋势,主要在于市场经营业务毛利率持续提升。

小商品城主营业务围绕义乌小商品市场展开,分为商品销售、市场经营、配套服务、贸易服务四大业务板块。公司毛利润主要来自市场经营业务,2024年该业务毛利占比为83.18%。线下市场经营是公司的传统业务,毛利率较高并且持续性强。

“扩张+涨价”提升业绩空间

义乌小商品城是全球最大的小商品批发市场,以收租为核心的市场经营业务为公司贡献主要利润。小商品市场已经历了5次升级,10次扩建,截至2024年底,公司拥有国际商贸城一至五区市场、一区和二区东扩市场、篁园服装市场以及国际生产资料市场几个主要市场,合计经营面积约640万平方米,旗下商位7.5万个,经营26个大类、210万个单品,几乎囊括了工艺品、饰品、小五金、日用百货、电子电器等所有日用工业品。

近年来,义乌小商品城市场交易额持续增长,市场交易活跃,市场出租率维持在较高水平。根据义乌市各年统计公报,小商品城市场成交额从2013年的683亿元增长至2023年的2331.28亿元。市场出租率也维持在较高水平,2018年以来,公司主体市场出租率保持90%以上,为公司提供了稳定的收入来源。

盈利能力方面,市场经营业务毛利率从2018年的53.44%提升至2023年的71.83%。

在此基础上,小商品城新市场即将投入营业,将为公司带来新的业绩增量。2023年4月12日,小商品城公告将在义乌国际商贸城五区东侧建设义乌全球数贸中心,总建筑面积约123.64万平方米,项目投资总额约83.2亿元。全球数贸中心涵盖市场、商务写字楼、商业街区、公寓和数字大脑五大功能板块,其中市场板块建筑面积41万平方米,设有5000余个商位,标准面积约27万平方米,计划于2025年10月试营业。

根据可行性报告测算,项目建成后收入主要包括公寓出租收入,预计年均收入4060万元;MALL市场租金收入,预计年均收入4.56亿元;写字楼销售收入,预计年均收入5.26亿元;商业街区销售收入,预计年均收入2.68亿元。

国泰君安证券认为,该项目将进一步扩大义乌的小商品聚集效应,是实体市场“场景形态”转型升级的系统集成,对于国际商贸城创新发展,助力义乌成为世界“小商品之都”具有重要意义,并增厚市场经营主业的收益。

近年来,国内商品交易市场集中度呈提升趋势。2014-2023年,国内亿元以上商品交易市场数量自5023个减少到3555个,但交易额自10万亿元增至10.96万亿元,说明行业集中度提升、头部商品交易市场规模及份额提升。而义乌小商品市场居于首位,在持续扩张的情况下,小商品城优势进一步增强。

此外,机构认为,小商品城的租金仍有上涨空间。商铺租金标准以政府指导价为主,定向安排和定向招商为主要出租模式。根据国联民生证券研报,义乌小商品市场商铺出租方包括定向安排、定向招商、招投标、定向投标,截至2024年3月末出租面积占比分别为45.67%、42.73%、11.37%、0.24%,不同出租方式针对的商户和收取的商铺费均不相同。其中,定向安排方式下租金价格一般低于政府指导价,远低于市场价;定向招商价格也较为优惠,低于市场价格。义乌市政府为保证小商品市场商户的低成本竞争优势,保持小商品市场的综合竞争优势,对公司商铺租金采取以政府指导价为主、市场定价为辅的定价机制。

目前小商品城只有少部分商位按市场价出租,国联民生证券认为,小商品城市场化提价空间较大。2018年以来,小商品城平均单位面积租金没有上涨,期间因为疫情防控等原因还出现过下滑。公司只有少数商位按市场价出租,大部分商位租金参照计划价。截至2024年3月末,义乌小商品城按市场价出租的商位数、商位面积占比分别仅为17%、12%,计划价下商铺平均年租金为1433元/平方米,而市场价下商铺平均年租金为2957元/平方米,平均溢价率达到106%,这意味着在市场化定价模型下,公司平均单位面积租金有较大的提升空间。

公司持续增强市场经营配套服务能力,提升商户对于涨租的接受度。公司加速推进数字市场建设,并同步配套物流服务、营销支持、金融服务等功能,为商户经营提供便利。为更好地适应市场变化,促进各行业均衡发展,小商品城结合义乌指数建立了行业评价体系,和商位租金差异化定价模型。根据定价模型,公司于2023年末对市场到期商位的租金进行调整,租金平均上浮5.5%,预计未来三年增长率将不低于5%。

国泰君安证券认为,租金差异化定价模型的实施将有助于平衡市场内部的竞争环境,为商家提供更加公平、透明的营商环境,不仅有助于提升市场的整体竞争力,还能够促进资源的有效配置和行业的可持续发展,为义乌市场的长期繁荣与稳定打下坚实的基础。

销售规模持续增加

商品销售业务方面,小商品城通过自营贸易切入市场贸易上下游,打通供货、仓储、展示、交易等流通环节,打造全球知名的优质小商品供应链平台。例如,“义乌好货”于2018年首次布局,内贸为主,通过整合义乌市场源头供应链资源,打通流通环节,加速小商品内贸渠道扩展;“爱喜猫”于2019年开业品牌首店,定位是提升进口贸易链综合服务能力,提升公司进口贸易实力,爱喜猫进口的商品均以跨境保税模式进口至义乌保税区,由公司第三方供应链“义乌懿达”承接保税区发货,消费者在平台下单承诺三天内直邮到家。

2021年,公司商品销售业务随着Chinagoods平台的上线迈上新台阶,公司整合义乌市场源头供应链资源,打造内销外贸的贸易体系,服务国内国际双循环,做大做强“义乌好货”“爱喜猫”品牌。具体而言,平台聚合义乌小商品城7.5万家实体商铺,对接小商品产业上游200万家中小微企业,覆盖26个大类,210万个单品,构建线上小商品平台。平台所有网店均可与线下实体商位一一对应,建立了严格的商户审核和准入机制,让交易更有诚信保障。平台还开通多种数字化支付手段,覆盖线上线下,基于真实交易,并可建立电子合同,具备法律效力,让交易更安全、更放心。2024年,公司商品销售收入92.57亿元,实现跨越式发展。

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